Event name: Osaka Business Networking Club Date: September 27, 2011 Time: 13:00pm - 14:30pm Venue: Osaka Chamber of Commerce & Industry Co-organizers: Osaka Prefecture, The City of Osaka, JETRO Osaka
Osaka Chamber of Commerce & Industry Number of participants: about 100 people.
Topic: Outlook of the Japanese economy after the Great East Japan Earthquake and prospects for Osaka's economy. Lecturer: Mr. Hideo Hayakawa, General Manager, Osaka Branch, Bank of Japan
After the Leman crisis, Japanese economy was sluggish for 3-4 quarters, however, since fall 2010 the economy started to show sign of recovery. Now it is considered that Japan is in the stage of moderate recovery even if the Great East Japan Earthquake halted the recovery for a while. The recovery is backed up by increase of export especially export to East Asia. If we look at export from Kinki area, downturn cased by the earthquake was much smaller than all Japan. This was because industry effect was mainly on automotive supply chain, and Kinki area is not the part of automotive supply chain. According to Economic Outlook by Regional Report (Sakura report), Kinki was the one of few areas showed recovery at the time of assessment in Jan. 2011.
Currently, Japanese yen is highly appreciated, however, real effective exchange rate is around 101.47 yen for $1.00 and this ratio is much better than the one in 1995, i.e.151.11 yen. We can not simply say that high yen cause minus effect to the economy. We should consider mid-long term ratio rather than short term. While Japan is not only exporting country but also importing country, by high yen we can say Japan could enjoy lower price for imported items.
Also corporate sentiment (business survey index) shows better forecast after fall 2010. Also labor market condition shows moderate recovery. While unemployment rate has not come down yet, active job opening ratio has been increasing since early 2010. Consumer price has picked up since early 2010.
If we look at overseas market, US housing market are still sluggish. This was caused by bad housing loan. We anticipate this sluggishness may continue for a while. However, European economic situation surrounding Greek is much more serious. Greece situation is now exerting a bad influence upon Spanish and Italian economy which would cause much more bad effect to all EU economy. Probably, the only solution is financial assistance from country that have sound economic situation such as Germany. German Government has to convince German tax payer.
As a conclusion, Japanese economy especially economy in Osaka has been in the stage of moderate recovery since 2010. Osaka is not heavily affected by the East Japan Earthquake and influence is only temporary. We should close look at European economy for any further development of the situation.
Reported by Yasuko Seta, Thai Trade Center, Osaka Oct. 6, 2011
Source : http://www.depthai.go.th