Attachment
Thai economy in November 2012 showed a continued expansion in domestic spending, both in private consumption and investment, while export and manufacturing showed an improving sign from previous month.
1. Private consumption in October 2012 continued to grow steadily. This was reflected by the real VAT collection in October 2012, which grew by 19.4 percent from last year, decelerating from the previous month’s expansion of 32.6 percent per year. Meanwhile, imports of consumer goods in October 2012 showed an expansion of 27.9 percent per year, increasing from the previous month’s expansion of 0.9 percent per year. Likewise, durable goods consumption also showed a steady growth, as reflected by passenger car sales in October 2012 that increased 263.7 percent per year, as compared to the previous month expansion of 67.8 percent per year. This was mainly due to an increased in production of various carmakers to meet the demand for cars which continues to grow at an accelerated rate, also a higher demand from consumers. Meanwhile, motorcycle sales in October 2012 expanded 24.0 percent from a year earlier, increasing from the previous month’s reduction of -1.3 percent per year. Looking into details, motorcycle sales in other regions and in Bangkok showed an expansion of 70.2 and 15.5 percent per year, which increased from the previous month’s expansion of 0.9 and reduction of -1.9, respectively, due to low base of previous year from flooding crisis and to an stable household income, especially a farm income. Furthermore, Consumer Confidence Index in October 2012 stood at 68.1 points, a bit higher than previous month’s level of 67.5 points, due to positive factors from an expansion of domestic economy, and also a continuity of domestic spending. Likewise, a global economy showed an improving sign since The United States has announced the QE3 which showed a positive sign for a global recovery.
Private Consumption Indicators 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct YTD Real Value Added Tax Collection (%yoy) 12.0 6.3 20.2 32.6 19.4 13.3 Imports of Consumer Goods (%yoy) 14.1 7.5 3.3 0.9 27.9 10.0 Passenger Car Sales (%yoy) -5.4 77.0 78.6 67.8 263.7 61.9 Motorcycle Sales (%yoy) -0.6 4.4 0.4 -1.3 24.0 2.9 Consumer Confidence Index 65.3 67.7 68.4 67.5 68.1 67.12. Private investment in October 2012 also showed a steady expansion, especially in machinery investment. This was reflected by import value of capital goods in October 2012 increasing at 46.5 percent per year, growing at higher rate than previous month’s expansion of 24.5 percent per year. Meanwhile, commercial car sales in October 2012 showed a continued expansion of 206.8 percent per year, as compared to the previous month’s increase of 39.4 percent from last year, owing to higher demand, a return to normal pace of automotive production capacity, and an accelerate production to delivery to customers. For private investment indicators of construction sector, as measured by real estate tax collection in October 2012 expanded 78.8 percent per year, accelerating from the previous month’s growth of 6.6 percent year-on-year, partly due to a low base from last year and to a tendency of higher demand for housing. This was in tandem with an increase in supply of real estate which was revealed by number of new housing in Bangkok and its vicinities, especially townhouse. Meanwhile, cement sales in October 2012 grew 30.9 percent from a year earlier, accelerating from the previous month’s expansion of 11.4 percent from last year. Finally, a steady growth in investment on construction sector was supported by an expansion of Thai economy, especially a higher demand in real estate.
Private Investment Indicators 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct YTD Machinery sector Imports of Capital Goods (%yoy) 11.0 22.0 18.3 24.5 46.5 19.5 Commercial Car Sales (%yoy) 33.5 62.3 53.5 39.4 206.8 58.1 Construction sector Real Estate tax Collection (%yoy) 4.7 23.7 7.2 6.6 78.8 17.3 Cement Sales (%yoy) 5.3 5.2 12.1 11.4 30.9 9.63. Fiscal indicators in October 2012 showed higher government spending which stimulated economic activities. In October 2012, the budget disbursement recorded at 312.2 billion baht, a rise of 87.0 percent per year, accelerating from the previous month’s growth of 17.5 percent year-on-year. This amount comprised of (1) current year expenditure of 290.6 billion baht, which increased 86.4 percent per year (including a current expenditure of 286.7 billion baht, or a 109.9 percent year-on-year escalation, and a capital expenditure of 4.0 billion baht or an decrease of -79.5 percent year-on-year) and (2) carry-over budget of 21.5 billion Baht, which expanded 94.9 percent from a year earlier. Meanwhile, net government revenue collection (net of local authorities’ allocation) in October 2012 amounted to 148.0 billion baht or an increase of 11.3 percent from last year, decreasing from the previous month’s expansion of 18.5 percent per year. As for fiscal position, budget balance in October 2012 showed a deficit of -162.1 billion baht.
Fiscal Sector Indicators FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 Q1/FY12 Q2/FY12 Q3/FY12 Q4/FY12 Sep Oct YTD Net Government 1977.5 398.4 412.8 620.3 545.7 122.8 148.0 148 Revenue (net of local authorities’ allocation) (%y-o-y) 4.5 0.7 4.8 3.8 8.0 18.5 11.3 11.3 Expenditure 2295.3 489.8 779.5 459.9 566.1 227.3 312.2 312.2 (%y-o-y) 5.4 -18.1 39.0 -14.6 17.9 17.5 87.0 87.0 Budget Balance -314.7 -84.7 -372.3 169.4 -26.9 28.6 -162.1 -162.14. Exports in October 2012 showed an improving sign due to a new market. Export value in October 2012 stood at 19.5 billion USD, equivalent to an expansion of 15.6 percent from last year, accelerating from the previous month’s expansion of 0.2 percent, regarding to a recovery in the manufacturing sector from a flooding crisis last year. This was also owing to an expansion of exports to new markets, such as Thai export to Hong Kong increased 55.9 percent from last year, to Australia 46.7 percent and to The United States 17.0 percent. Looking into details, export products that showed a strong expansion are electronics increased 23.0 percent from a year earlier, electrical appliances increased 25.2 percent and automobile and parts increased 53.4 percent. Meanwhile, import value amounted to 22.0 billion USD in October 2012, increasing 21.6 percent from a year earlier, expanded from the previous month’s contraction of -7.5 percent. In particular, import of fuel increased 35.6 percent from a year earlier, capital goods expanded 48.3 percent and electrical machinery increased 86.2 percent. This is due to the fact that manufacturing and transportation sectors needed more fuels and global crude oil price gained and to the import of hi-technology machinery. As such, the smaller export value compared to that of import resulted in a trade deficit of -2.5 billion USD in October 2012.
Major Exports Market 2012 (Exports Share) Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct YTD Total Exports Value (%yoy) -1.4 2.0 -3.8 0.2 15.6 0.3 1. China (11.8%) 1.4 13.7 -11.8 -14.7 -7.7 -0.6 2. Japan (10.7%) -6.3 -1.2 -6.3 -3.1 10.2 -3.3 3. US (9.8%) 2.1 4.6 -1.2 -1.0 17.0 3.1 4. Europe (9.7%) -16.9 -7.5 -19.2 -12.9 9.6 -12.8 5. Hong Kong (5.4%) -6.5 -8.3 9.8 8.6 55.9 2.5 6. Singapore (5.1%) 2.7 1.0 -25.4 -11.1 30.9 -5.6 7. Australia (4.2%) -6.6 21.9 21.1 48.0 46.7 15.0 8. ASEAN?9 (17.4%) 9.2 7.2 -9.0 -11.7 14.0 3.05. Supply-side indicators in October 2012 suggested a recovery in agricultural and service sectors, while manufacturing sector indicators showed an improving sign. Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) in October 2012 increased 36.1 percent from a year earlier, accelerating from the previous month’s expansion of 4.9 percent. This is the first expansion in 5 months from June to September 2012, partly due to low base from last year’s flooding crisis which caused severe losses and damages in manufacturing area more than 3 months such as electronics, automobile and parts, plastics, metal, foods and chemical products. Furthermore, the industry in automobile increased 387.3 percent from a year earlier, food and beverages grew by 22.5 percent, electrical appliances such as air?condition, refrigerator and fan increased 85.8 percent, radio and television 26.2 percent and garments increased 10.0 percent etc. This expansion is due to partly from a low base from last year, also to an expansion in domestic spending, both in private consumption and investment. Consistently, Thai Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) in October 2012 stood at 93.0 points, falling from 94.1 points in the previous month, and the Index stood below 100.0 points for the fourth consecutive month. The level was the lowest in 10 months, mainly due to an uncertainty from the manufacturers to an increase in production cost such as raw material, wages, electrics cost and a global economic slowdown which affected on Thai economy, particularly in export and lack of workers in some industries. Meanwhile, agricultural sector’s performance as measured by Agricultural Production Index (API) in October 2012 showed an increase of 5.4 percent from last year, decelerating from the previous month’s expansion of 8.3 percent. This was mainly due to a decline of crops especially potatoes and palm oil due to a high base from last year at accelerated rate. Meanwhile, rice and rubber products showed a steady
Supply Side Indicators 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct YTD Manufacturing Production Index(%yoy) -6.8 -1.5 -11.3 -16.8 36.1 -3.6 Agricultural Production Index (%yoy) 3.6 3.4 14.2 8.9 5.4 6.7 Number of In?Bound Tourists (%yoy) 7.1 8.2 8.4 7.9 20.5 9.76. Economic stability remained robust. Headline inflation in October 2012 was at 3.3 percent from last year, and slightly decreased by last month’s growth at 3.4 percent, mainly due to a decline in livestock, egg, rent and housing garments prices. However, there was a strong growth in vegetable price due to a Vegetarian Festival. Meanwhile, core inflation rate was at 1.8 percent, slightly higher than last month’s rate at 1.9 percent. Unemployment rate in September 2012 stood at 0.6 percent of total labor force, or equivalent to 240,000 unemployed persons. Public debt to GDP ratio at the end of September 2012 stood at 43.9 percent, well below the 60 percent level under the Fiscal Sustainability Framework. Likewise, external economic stability remained robust and resilient to the risk from volatilities in the global economy, as indicated by the high-level of international reserves at the end of October 2012 at 181.4 billion USD, or approximately 3.1 times of short-term external debt.
Macroeconomic Stability Indicators 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct YTD Internal Stability Headline Inflation (%yoy) 3.4 2.5 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.0 Core Inflation (%yoy) 2.7 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.2 Unemployment rate (% of total labor force) 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 n.a. 0.7 External Stability Current Account Balance (Billion USD) 1.4 -2.4 2.7 1.8 n.a. 1.8 International Reserves (Billion USD) 179.2 174.7 183.6 183.6 181.4 181.4Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th