“Thai economy in September and Q3/2012 showed improving signs in domestic spending, both in private consumption and investment, while exports and export-oriented manufacturing sector continued to contract due to Euro debt crisis and uncertainty in global economy.”
Director-General of the Fiscal Policy Office, revealed that “Economic indicators in September and Q3/2012 suggested steady economic expansion supported by domestic spending from both private consumption and investment. However, the debt crisis in Eurozone and uncertainty in global economy continued to negatively affect Thai exports and export-oriented manufacturing sector. Nevertheless, Thai export were supported by new markets especially in Australia and Africa, India and Hong Kong”
Ms. Kulaya Tantitemit, Senior Expert on Macroeconomic policy further elaborated that “Private consumption and private investment continued to expand steady. In terms of private consumption, this was reflected by passenger car sales in September 2012 which increased 67.8 percent year-onyear, yielded the third quarter of 2012 to expand 78.6 percent. For private investment, it was revealed by import value of capital goods in September 2012 which expanded by 24.5 percent from a year earlier, resulted in an increase of 18.3 percent year on year in Q3/2012. This was in tandem with commercial car sales in September 2012 which continues to grow at 39.4 percent, yielded Q3/2012 to expand by 53.5 percent from last year. Meanwhile, Thai export was severely affected by uncertainty in world economic recession which resulted in a contraction of total export value in Q3 of 2012 by -3.8 percent. This was corresponded with lessening in manufacturing sector, which reflected by a contraction in Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) in September 2012 at -13.7 percent from a year earlier, regarded as the fourth consecutive month of contraction. Thus, it leaded MPI in Q3/2012 declined -10.2 percent from last year, deepen contracted from Q2/2012’s shrinkage of -1.5 percent, owing to a lower export demand from foreign countries.”
The Director-General of the Fiscal Policy Office concluded that “Thai economic in Q3/2012 was significantly driven by domestic spending. Going forward, there are 2 economic issues that we need close attention, as follows: (1) public debt crisis in the Eurozone and world economic volatilities and (2) Thailand’s fiscal policy implementation to stimulate Thai economy further in 2012 and 2013. Given all of the above economic indicators and trend, the Fiscal Policy Office reiterates that Thai economic growth would expand by 5.5 percent per year (within the range of 5.3-5.8 percent) in 2012 and would expand by 5.2 percent (within the range of 4.7-5.7) in 2013.”
Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th