Attachment
“Thai economy in March and the 1st quarter of 2013 showed continued expansion but at slower pace from private domestic spending, exports and supply-side sectors especially manufacturing and agriculture. Meanwhile, fiscal sector still played important role to booster continually Thai economy.”
1. Private consumption in March and Q1/2013 continued to expand but at slower pace. This was reflected by the real VAT collection in March 2013, which grew by 0.9 percent from last year, decelerating from the previous month’s expansion of 3.2 percent per year. This resulted in a 6.9 percent year-on-year expansion in the first quarter of 2013, which decreased from the fourth quarter’s escalation of 18.0 percent year-on-year and declined -0.1 percent from previous quarter after seasonal adjustment (q-o-q SA). Meanwhile, imports of consumer goods in March 2013 showed an expansion of 1.2 percent per year, accelerating from the previous month’s contraction of -6.5 percent per year. This yielded to 5.1 percent year-on-year increase in the first quarter of 2013, decelerating from the previous quarter’s expansion of 8.9 percent from a year earlier and decreased -4.0 percent from previous quarter after seasonal adjustment (q-o-q SA). Likewise, durable goods consumption also showed a steady growth, as reflected by passenger car sales in March 2013 that increased 93.4 percent per year, as compared to the previous month’s expansion of 92.1 percent per year and 8.2 percent from previous month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). This resulted in a 101.3 percent year-on-year, decelerating from the previous quarter’s proliferation of 268.7 percent per year and increased 1.1 percent from previous quarter after seasonal adjustment (q-o-q SA). This was mainly due to an increase in cars delivery which was supported by First Car policy. Moreover, the vehicle industry has launched their new products with promotion campaign to support their sales. Meanwhile, motorcycle sales in March 2013 increased 0.04 percent from a year earlier, increasing the previous month’s contraction of -0.9 percent per year. Looking into details, motorcycle sales in Bangkok showed acceleration of 21.6 percent from a year earlier, increasing from last month’s contraction of -3.6 percent, while motorcycle sales in other regions showed deceleration of -5.2. This resulted in a 5.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2013. Furthermore, Consumer Confidence Index in March 2013 stood at 75.0 points, higher than previous month’s level of 74.3 points. This growth showed a strongest expansion in the 85 months and expanded in the sixth consecutive month, due to positive factors from an expansion of domestic economy. Likewise, the supportive factor is an increasing in minimum wages in the whole kingdom to raise their purchasing power.
Private Consumption Indicators 2012 2013 Q1 Jan Feb Mar YTD Real Value Added Tax Collection (%yoy) 14.0 6.9 17.0 3.2 0.9 6.9 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -0.1 8.8 -0.7 -5.4 - Imports of Consumer Goods (%yoy) -0.4 5.1 20.5 -6.5 1.2 5.1 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -4.0 17.1 -16.3 -5.7 - Passenger Car Sales (%yoy) 86.6 101.3 108.6 92.1 93.4 101.3 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - 1.1 0.5 0.1 8.2 - Motorcycle Sales (%yoy) 5.8 5.4 19.7 -0.9 0.04 5.4 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -0.4 8.3 -2.3 -5.5 - Consumer Confidence Index 67.6 73.8 72.1 74.3 75.0 73.82. Private investment in March and Q1/2013 also showed a slowdown, especially in machinery and construction investment. This was reflected by import value of capital goods in March 2013 decreasing at -5.7 percent per year, following previous month’s contraction of -2.7 percent per year with a contraction of -2.4 percent from previous month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). This resulted in an increase of 6.8 percent in the first quarter, which continually maintains a positive growth from the previous quarter’s expansion of 43.1 percent per year with an increase of 10.1 percent seasonally adjusted from previous quarter (q-o-q SA). Likewise, import value of capital goods excluding aircraft and trains in the first quarter expanded by 2.6 percent from a year earlier but contracted by -5.6 percent from previous quarter after seasonal adjustment (q-o-q SA). Meanwhile, commercial car sales in March 2013 showed a small expansion of 12.2 percent per year, as compared to the previous month’s increase of 14.0 percent from last year with a contraction of -6.1 percent from previous month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). This was due to a slowdown in one-ton pickup which grew 7.4 percent from a year earlier. This resulted in a 19.4 percent growth in the first quarter, decelerating from the previous quarter’s growth of 231.9 percent per year with a decrease of -2.4 percent seasonally adjusted from previous quarter (q-o-q SA). This was due to accelerated car delivery from previous quarter including car sale in the beginning of this year. For private investment indicators of construction sector, as measured by cement sales in March 2013 grew 16.2 percent from a year earlier, increasing from the previous month’s expansion of 14.3 percent from last year with an expansion of 2.0 percent from previous month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). However, this resulted in the 1st quarter’s expansion of 15.9 percent per year, decelerating from the previous quarter which increased 20.6 percent from last year with a contraction of -0.6 percent seasonally adjusted from previous quarter (q-o-q SA). The real estate tax collection in March 2013 expanded 17.7 percent per year, dropped from the previous month’s growth of 27.9 percent year-on-year with a contraction of -6.2 percent from previous month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). This resulted in a 32.5 percent per year increase in the first quarter, as compared to the fourth quarter expansion of 48.1 percent from last year with a decrease of -5.4 percent seasonally adjusted from previous quarter (q-o-q SA), due to accelerated pace in real estate tax collection from last quarter.
Private Investment Indicators 2012 2013 Q1 Jan Feb Mar YTD Machinery Imports of Capital Goods (%yoy) 22.1 6.8 35.5 -2.7 -5.7 6.8 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - 10.1 1.9 -14.3 -2.4 - Imports of Capital Goods exc. 23.2 2.6 -5.9 -5.8 2.6 aircraft and trains (%yoy) %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -5.6 -5.5 -6.2 - Commercial Car Sales (%yoy) 76.2 19.4 36.6 14.0 12.2 19.4 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -2.4 17.3 -9.3 -6.1 - Construction Real Estate tax Collection (%yoy) 21.4 32.5 66.3 27.9 17.7 32.5 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -5.4 12.0 -5.4 -6.2 - Cement Sales (%yoy) 10.6 15.9 16.9 14.3 16.2 15.9 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -0.6 8.2 -2.0 2.0 -3. Fiscal indicators in March and Q1/2013 showed higher government revenues, while government spending was more than revenues, resulted in budget deficit according to budget plan in this fiscal year 2013. Net government revenue collection (net of local authorities’ allocation) in March 2013 amounted to 151.0 billion baht or an increase of 7.9 percent from last year, decreasing from the previous month’s expansion of 13.0 percent per year. This resulted in the first semester’s net revenue collection of 978.8 billion baht in fiscal year 2013 (from October 2012 to March 2013), expanding 20.7 percent from a year earlier. In March 2013, the budget disbursement recorded at 225.5 billion baht, regarded as a contraction of -39.1 percent from a year earlier and following a last month’s decrease of -41.3 percent per year. This amount comprised of (1) current year expenditure of 201.3 billion baht, which decreased -42.8 percent per year (including a current expenditure of 125.9 billion baht, or a decrease of -55.5 percent year-on-year escalation, and a capital expenditure of 75.2 billion baht or an increase of -9.9 percent year-on-year) and (2) carry-over budget of 24.2 billion baht, which expanded by 33.7 percent from a year earlier. This resulted in a 1,371.6 billion baht budget disbursement in the first semester of fiscal year 2013 or an expansion of 8.1 percent per year. As for fiscal position, budget balance in March 2013 showed a deficit of -74.1 billion baht. This resulted in a budget deficit of -414.4 billion baht in the first semester of fiscal year 2013.
Fiscal Sector Indicators FY2012 FY2013 Q1/FY13 Q1/FY13 Jan Feb Mar YTD Net Government Revenue 1,975.6 508.1 470.7 163.5 156.2 151.0 978.8 (net of local authorities’ allocation) (%y-o-y) 4.4 27.5 14.0 21.4 13.0 7.9 20.7 Expenditure 2,295.3 785.9 585.7 208.1 152.1 225.5 1,371.6 (%y-o-y) 5.4 60.5 -24.9 38.3 -41.3 -39.1 8.1 Budget Balance -314.7 -282.8 -131.6 -38.2 -19.3 -74.1 -414.44. Exports in March increased after a contraction in previous month, resulted in continued expansion in Q1/2013. Export value in March 2013 stood at 20.8 billion USD, equivalent to an expansion of 4.5 percent from last year, increased from last month’s contraction of -5.8 percent from a year earlier, with an increase of 1.2 percent from previous month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). This resulted in a 4.3 percent per year increase in the first quarter, decelerating from the fourth quarter’s expansion of 18.5 percent from last year with a decrease of -0.5 percent seasonally adjusted from previous quarter (q-o-q SA). However, this continued to expand in the fourth consecutive month, mainly owing to a recovery of export-oriented manufacturing sector. Looking into details, export products that showed an expansion in the 1st quarter 2013 are manufacturing goods, especially (1) vehicles that increased 19.0 percent, (2) chemical products that rose 15.8 percent and (3) electrical appliances that grew by 9.3 percent. Likewise, exports to major markets continued to show an expansion, such as Australia, China and ASEAN-9 which grew by 30.4, 7.3 and 5.9 percent respectively from last year. Meanwhile, import value in March 2013 amounted to 21.6 billion USD, or decreased -11.5 percent from a year earlier, decelerating from the previous month’s expansion of 5.3 percent. This resulted in the import value in Q1/2013 expanded by 8.4 percent from a year earlier, decelerating from previous quarter’s growth of 16.4 percent per year. As such, the smaller import value compared to that of exports resulted in a trade deficit of -0.9 billion USD in March 2013. However, for the 1st quarter of 2013, international trade marked a deficit of -7.9 billion USD.
Major Exports Market 2013 (%yoy) (Exports Share) 2012 Q1 Jan Feb Mar YTD Total Exports Value (%yoy) 3.1 4.3 16.1 -5.8 4.5 4.3 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -0.5 4.8 -6.69 1.2 - 1. China (11.7%) 2.5 7.3 19.4 3.7 1.1 7.3 2. Japan (10.2%) -1.6 1.5 7.3 -1.1 -0.9 1.5 3. US (9.9%) 4.6 2.6 16.7 -0.9 -4.7 2.6 4. Europe (8.5%) -9.2 8.7 24.5 -0.8 5.5 8.7 5. Hong Kong (5.7%) 9.6 11.2 74.1 -27.8 24.8 11.2 6. Malaysia (5.4%) 0.2 -0.8 14.1 -16.3 2.8 -0.8 7. Middle East (5.0%) 6.6 4.4 9.1 -7.3 12.4 4.4 8. Australia (4.9%) 22.1 30.4 44.4 10.9 39.1 30.4 PS. ASEAN-9 (24.3%) 5.0 5.9 18.0 -7.2 8.9 5.95. Supply-side indicators in March and Q1/2013 showed improving sign from previous month. Manufacturing Production Index (MPI, preliminary data) in March 2013 expanded 0.5 percent from a year earlier, accelerating from the previous month’s decrease of -1.2 percent per year. This resulted in a 2.9 percent per year increase in the first quarter, decelerating from the previous quarter’s expansion of 43.9 percent from last year with a decrease of -2.8 percent seasonally adjusted from previous quarter (q-o-q SA). The manufacturing sector which continued to expand in the first quarter of 2013 was vehicles, air-conditions, garments and jewelry industries. Consistently, Thai Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) in March 2013 stood at 93.5 points, decreasing from 95.5 points in the previous month, contracted for the third consecutive month and was the lowest in last five months. The key reasons are producers concern regarding to baht appreciation, high energy price, drought in the North and Northeast affecting agricultural production. Meanwhile, agricultural sector’s performance as measured by Agricultural Production Index (API) in March 2013 showed a slight decrease. API in March 2013 decreased -0.5 percent from last year, slowing down from the previous month’s expansion of 0.2 percent. This was mainly due to a slowdown in agriculture production, especially rice, while production of rubber and tapioca increased 7.1 and 5.9 percent from a year earlier due to proper climate. This yielded Q1 2013 to expand 1.9 percent year-on-year, decreasing from previous quarter’s expansion of 4.9 percent. In addition, service sector indicators as reflected by tourism indicators in March 2013 showed a continued expansion. The number of inbound tourists was recorded at 2.3 million persons in March 2013, or increased 19.2 percent from last year, following from previous month’s expansion of 25.6 percent, increasing 0.7 percent seasonally adjusted from previous month (m-o-m SA). This marked the number of inbound tourist in the first quarter 2013 stood at 6.83 million persons, with an expansion of 18.9 percent from a year earlier. The 3 countries who contributed the most to growth were China, Russia and Japan which grew by 93.5, 26.0 and 22.7 percent from last year.
Supply Side Indicators 2012 2013 Q1 Jan Feb Mar YTD Manufacturing Production Index (%yoy) 2.5 2.9 10.2 -1.2 0.5 2.9 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -2.8 -1.9 -0.7 4.1 - Agricultural Production Index (%yoy) 5.1 1.9 6.0 0.2 -0.5 1.9 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -2.1 -4.0 -1.0 0.5 - Number of In-Bound Tourists (%yoy) 16.0 18.9 12.5 25.6 19.2 18.9 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - 1.7 -3.1 6.0 0.7 -6. Economic stability remained robust both on internal and external sides. Headline inflation in March 2013 was at 2.7 percent from last year, decreased from previous month’s rate at 3.2 percent. This was mainly due to a decrease in meat and poultry prices after Chinese New Year, while retail gasoline price decreased with the lower global crude oil price. Meanwhile, core inflation rate was at 1.2 percent, lower than last month’s rate at 1.6 percent. As such, headline and core inflations in Q1 2013 registered at 3.1 and 1.5 percent from a year earlier, respectively. Unemployment rate in February 2013 stood at 0.6 percent of total labor force, or equivalent to 250,000 unemployed persons. Public debt to GDP ratio at the end of February 2013 stood at 44.1 percent, still below the 60 percent level under the Fiscal Sustainability Framework. Likewise, external economic stability remained robust and resilient to the risk from volatilities in the global economy, as indicated by the high-level of international reserves at the end of March 2013 at 177.8 billion USD, or approximately 2.9 times of short-term external debt.
Macroeconomic Stability Indicators 2012 2013 Q1 Jan Feb Mar YTD Internal Stability Headline Inflation (%yoy) 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.2 2.7 3.1 Core Inflation (%yoy) 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.5 Unemployment rate (% of total labor force) 0.7 n.a. 0.8 0.6 n.a. 0.7 Public debt (%GDP) 44.0 n.a. 44.1 44.1 n.a. 44.1 External Stability Current Account Balance (Billion USD) 2.7 n.a. -2.2 1.6 n.a. -0.7 International Reserves (Billion USD) 181.6 177.8 181.7 179.3 177.8 177.8 Forward (Billion USD) 24.1 23.7 23.6 23.1 23.7 23.7Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th