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"Thai economy in October 2013 showed stable sign with domestic demand indicators exhibited improving signs, while exports contracted but at slower pace. Moreover, tourism sector showed continued expansion and economic stability remained robust"1. Private consumption in October 2013 showed slight improving sign from previous month. This was reflected by the real VAT collection in October 2013, which expanded by 2.7 percent from last year, with an increase of 11.9 percent from previous month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). This was due to an increase of real VAT collection on imported goods which grew by 9.1 percent per year. However, durable goods consumption as reflected by motorcycle sales in October 2013 that decreased by -11.1 percent per year, with an increase of 8.0 percent from previous month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). Looking into details, motorcycle sales in other regions excluding Bangkok showed deceleration of -12.2 percent, decelerating from last month's contraction of -13.6 percent per year. Furthermore, Consumer Confidence Index in October 2013 stood at 66.6 points, lowest in the 19 th month since April 2012. This was due to concerns about Thai economic slowdown in the second half of 2013, political uncertainty, and the global economic recovery which is still fragile.
Private Consumption Indicators 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct YTD Real Value Added Tax Collection (%yoy) 14.1 6.9 -0.1 -7.3 -19.4 2.7 -0.2 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -0.9 -3.1 -3.1 -4.0 11.9 - Motorcycle Sales (%yoy) 5.8 5.4 -6.2 -8.7 -11.1 -11.1 -4.1 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -1.1 -4.8 -3.7 -1.1 8.0 - Consumer Confidence Index 67.6 73.8 72.8 69.3 67.9 66.6 71.52. Private investment in October 2013 also showed improving sign from last month, especially construction investment. This as measured by the real estate tax collection in October 2013 which expanded by 14.9 percent per year with, with an increase of 9.6 percent from previous month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). This was in tandem with increasing demand in real estate in tandem with increasing supply from real estate entrepreneurs which launched new projects in city areas. Meanwhile, the cement sales in October 2013 contracted by -1.1 percent from a year earlier, with an increase of 2.1 percent from previous month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA).
Private Investment Indicators 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct YTD Construction Real Estate tax Collection (%yoy) 21.4 35.2 11.0 22.0 12.6 14.9 20.9 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -1.4 -1.7 8.0 -7.2 9.6 - Cement Sales (%yoy) 10.6 15.9 14.6 3.0 3.4 -1.1 9.7 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -0.3 1.3 -1.8 -0.7 2.1 -3. Fiscal indicators in October 2013 which is the first month in fiscal year 2014. In October 2013, the net government revenue collection (net of local authorities' allocation) amounted to 178.5 billion baht or an increase of 21.4 percent from last year. Meanwhile, the budget disbursement recorded at 258.3 billion baht or a contraction of -17.3 percent per year. This amount comprised of (1) current year expenditure of 244.0 billion baht, which decreased by -16.0 percent per year (including a current expenditure of 241.3 billion baht, or a contraction of -15.8 percent year-on-year, and a capital expenditure of 2.7 billion baht or a decrease of -31.9 percent year-on-year). As for fiscal position, budget balance in October 2013 showed a deficit of -78.5 billion baht.
Fiscal Sector Indicators FY2013 FY2013 Q1/ Q2/ Q3/ Q4/ Oct YTD FY13 FY13 FY13 FY13 Net Government Revenue 1,975.6 508.5 469.6 641.9 537.5 193.4 178.5 (net of local authorities' allocation) (%y-o-y) 4.4 27.6 13.7 3.4 -1.2 9.8 21.4 Expenditure 2,295.3 785.9 585.7 482.0 548.9 234.3 258.3 (%y-o-y) 5.4 60.5 -24.9 4.8 -3.0 3.1 -17.3 Budget Balance -314.7 -283.9 -109.1 165.1 -17.0 2.2 -78.54. Exports in October 2013 showed slight contraction. Export value in October 2013 stood at 19.4 billion USD, equivalent to a decrease of -0.7 percent from last year, decelerating from the previous month's contraction of -7.7 percent. Looking into details, export products that showed expansion were electronics which expanded for 4 consecutive months. This was due to computer and parts and electrical appliances increased by 2.8 and 0.5 percent per year respectively. Export destinations to China, U.S., Europe and ASEAN-9 showed expansions of 14.5, 6.5, 7.0 and 2.5 percent from a year earlier respectively. Import value amounted to 21.2 billion USD in October 2013, decreasing -5.4 percent from a year earlier. As such, the smaller export value compared to that of import resulted in a trade deficit of -1.8 billion USD in October 2013.
Major Exports Market 2013 (Exports Share) 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct YTD Total Exports Value (%yoy) 3.1 4.3 -2.2 -1.7 -7.1 -0.7 -0.02 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -0.9 -3.1 1.5 -6.3 n.a. - 1. China (11.7%) 2.5 7.3 -13.4 -0.3 1.2 14.5 -0.9 2. Japan (10.2%) -1.6 1.5 -6.2 -10.1 -13.6 -12.1 -5.8 3. US (9.9%) 4.6 2.6 -3.5 0.7 -0.7 6.5 0.6 4. Europe (8.5%) -9.2 8.7 -5.2 8.5 -2.7 7.0 2.6 5. Hong Kong (5.7%) 9.6 11.2 7.8 -1.4 -1.3 -14.5 3.2 6. Middle-East (5.0%) 6.6 4.4 -5.6 3.4 21.0 0.8 0.7 7. Australia (4.9%) 22.1 30.4 14.5 4.9 -30.7 -7.9 8.9 PS. ASEAN-9 (24.7%) 5.0 5.9 2.5 10.8 6.6 2.5 5.95. Supply-side indicators in October 2013 showed continued expansion from the number of inbound tourists. Service sector indicators as reflected by tourism indicators in October 2013 still showed positive sign. The number of inbound tourists was recorded at 2.07 million persons in October 2013, or increased 14.7 percent from last year. This expansion was owing to inbound tourists from China, Russia and Malaysia, which showed a growth of 17.9, 30.8 and 14.6 percent from a year earlier respectively. Meanwhile, agricultural sector's performance as measured by Agricultural Production Index (API) in October 2013 expanded by 5.3 percent from last year, with an expansion of 7.7 percent from previous month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). This was mainly due to increasing crops especially rice and rubber with more harvest of crop area in the Northeast and in the East. However, Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) in October 2013 decreased by -4.0 percent from a year earlier. Looking into detail, the manufacturing sectors which showed contraction were automobile, canned and frozen seafood and electrical appliances. Nonetheless, the manufacturing sectors which showed expansion were hard disk drive (HDD) industry, petroleum and electronics. The capacity utilization in October 2013 stood at 63.5 which showed slight contraction from last month. Consistently, Thai Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) in October 2013 stood at 92.8 points, slightly increased from last month and expanded for the first time in 11 months. This increase showed improving sign from manufacturing sectors as reflected by rising orders, domestic sales and increasing products from fashion industry, construction, food industry and energy industry. This expansion also showed that domestic market was still strong which confirmed by the producer's confidence.
Supply Side Indicators 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct YTD Manufacturing Production Index (%yoy) 2.5 2.9 -4.9 -3.5 -2.9 -4.0 -2.1 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -2.9 -5.7 -2.1 -3.3 n.a. - Agricultural Production Index (%yoy) 3.9 -0.2 0.5 -3.4 -4.3 5.3 -0.4 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -1.5 1.1 -3.1 -1.7 7.7 - Number of In-Bound Tourists (%yoy) 16.2 18.9 21.3 26.1 27.6 14.7 22.3 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - 2.1 8.3 6.6 -2.2 -2.0 -6. Economic stability remained robust. Headline inflation in October 2013 was at 1.5 percent from last year, mainly due to increasing food and nonalcohol price (rice, powder, livestock and egg). Meanwhile, core inflation rate was at 0.7 percent. Unemployment rate in October 2013 stood at 0.6 percent of total labor force, or equivalent to 264,000 unemployed persons. Public debt to GDP ratio at the end of September 2013 stood at 45.5 percent, well below the 60 percent level under the Fiscal Sustainability Framework. Likewise, external economic stability remained robust and resilient to the risk from volatilities in the global economy, as indicated by the high-level of international reserves at the end of October 2013 at 172.1 billion USD, or approximately 2.8 times of short-term external debt.
Macroeconomic Stability Indicators 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct YTD Internal Stability Headline Inflation (%yoy) 3.0 3.1 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.5 2.3 Core Inflation (%yoy) 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 Unemployment rate (% of total labor force) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 Public debt (%GDP) 44.0 44.2 44.5 45.5 45.5 n.a. 45.5 External Stability Current Account Balance (Billion USD) 2.7 1.5 -6.7 -0.9 -0.5 0.4 -5.7 International Reserves (Billion USD) 181.6 177.8 170.8 172.3 172.3 172.1 172.1 Forward (Billion USD) 24.1 23.7 23.7 21.2 21.2 21.8 21.8Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th