Attachment
Indicators in January 2014 indicated that Thai economy showed continued slowing signs both on expenditure and production sides, especially tourism which has affected by political unrest. Overall export turned slightly negative, while export to major trading partners still expanded.
1. Private consumption in January 2014 showed slowing sign from last month, especially consumption in durable goods. This was reflected by motorcycle sales in January 2014, which continued to contract by -30.3 percent in total from last year. This can be decomposed to a decrease in metropolitan area by -72.2 percent and a decrease in provincial area by -19.3 percent. Passenger car sales in January 2014 also showed continued contraction of -55.9 percent. These were due to slowdown economic and political situations affecting consumers' purchasing decisions. Likewise, imports of consumer goods in January 2014 showed a contraction of -5.3 percent per year, However, it was considered an expansion of 8.1 percent seasonally adjusted from previous month. Further, Consumer Confidence Index in January 2014 has declined for 10 consecutive months and stood at 61.4 points, the lowest level in the past 26 months. This was due to consumers' concerns about political situation and slowdown in Thai economy. However, real VAT collection still expanded by 2.7 percent per year or 3.2 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. This was partly due to low inflation in this period.
Private Consumption Indicators 2013 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan Real Value Added Tax Collection (%yoy) -0.7 6.8 -0.3 -7.3 -1.0 2.9 2.7 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -2.0 -3.2 -0.9 5.5 4.2 3.2 Imports of Consumer Goods (%yoy) 4.4 4.6 7.7 6.2 -0.2 -1.9 -5.3 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -3.7 -1.6 -1.2 6.3 -3.4 6.2 Passenger Car Sales (%yoy) -6.1 97.2 -3.3 -24.8 -39.7 -28.3 -55.9 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -3.3 -27.3 -2.8 -11.0 22.2 -35.6 Motorcycle Sales (%yoy) -6.0 5.4 -6.2 -8.7 -14.9 -17.2 -30.3 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -2.0 -4.9 -3.7 -4.9 -4.2 -13.7 Consumer Confidence Index 70.2 73.8 72.8 69.3 64.9 63.2 61.42. Private investment in January 2014 also showed slowing signs from last month, especially investment in machinery sector. This was reflected by continued contraction in commercial car sales in January 2014 by -36.2 percent from a year earlier. This was due to economic slowdown and political situation affecting consumers' purchasing decision. Further, import of capital goods in January 2014 declined by-19.3 percent. Private investment indicators of construction sector also showed slowing signs as reflected by decrease in cement sales in August 2013 by -1.4 percent. Moreover, real estate tax collection also declined by -5.5 percent.
Private Investment Indicators 2013 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan Construction Real Estate tax Collection (%yoy) 17.9 35.2 11.0 22.0 9.1 9.1 -5.5 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -1.5 -1.4 8.2 4.0 -2.1 -4.2 Cement Sales (%yoy) 8.3 15.9 14.6 3.0 0.3 -1.3 -1.4 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -0.6 1.3 -1.3 1.0 -9.5 8.1 Machinery Commercial Car Sales (%yoy) -8.4 19.4 3.2 -26.2 -24.1 -14.5 -36.2 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -3.1 -7.6 -14.2 -0.9 3.3 -11.7 Import of capital goods (%yoy) -5.9 3.7 -1.5 -7.9 -16.6 -15.9 -19.3 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -11.8 0.1 -5.1 -0.5 -1.1 -2.4 Import of capital goods exc. -10.2 -0.7 -11.2 -10.0 -18.0 -11.2 -12.3 aircraft, ship and train (%yoy) %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -8.5 -5.3 -1.0 -4.5 -0.7 5.33. Fiscal indicators in January 2014 showed deficit. The budget disbursement recorded at 213.2 billion baht, an expansion of 2.4 percent per year. This amount comprised of (1) current expenditure of 177.5 billion baht, which increased 2.2 percent per year and (2) capital expenditure of 8.9 billion baht or an increase of 20.5 percent per year. In January 2014, the net government revenue collection (net of local authorities' allocation) amounted to 149.9 billion baht or a decrease of -8.3 percent from last year. Tax items, such as personal income tax, car tax, and petroleum tax showed contraction by -17.5, -34.0, and -3.2 percent respectively. As for fiscal position, budget balance in January 2014 showed a deficit of -51.4 billion baht.
Fiscal Sector Indicators FY2013 FY2013 FY2014 Q1/ Q2/ Q3/ Q4/ Q1/ Dec Jan YTD FY13 FY13 FY13 FY13 FY14 Net Government Revenue 2,161.3 508.5 469.6 641.9 537.5 504.6 160.3 149.9 654.7 (net of local authorities' allocation) (%y-o-y) 9.4 27.6 13.7 3.4 -1.2 -0.8 -14.3 -8.3 -2.6 Expenditure 2,402.5 785.9 585.7 482.0 548.9 831.1 317.0 213.2 317.0 (%y-o-y) 4.7 60.5 -24.9 4.8 -3.0 5.7 82.2 2.4 82.2 Budget Balance -239.0 -283.6 -109.1 165.1 -11.4 -333.4 -151.9 -51.4 -384.84. Exports in January 2014 showed slowing sign from previous month. Export value in January 2014 stood at 17.9 billion USD, equivalent to a decrease of -2.0 percent from last year. This was resulted from contraction in vehicles, agro-industrial, and agricultural sectors by -12.4, -7.7, and -5.3 percent respectively. However, export in electronic goods and electrical appliances expanded by 6.5, and 7.8 percent respectively. This is consistent with G3 countries recovery where export to Eurozone, Japan, and USA expanded by 4.6, 1.8, and 0.4 percent respectively. However, export to regional market, such as Australia, Indonesia, Singapore, and Hong Kong contracted by -24.2, -20.2, -18.4, and -14.0 percent respectively. This was partly due to Chinese New year celebration in January this year instead of February last year. Import value amounted to 20.4 billion USD in January 2014, decreased by -15.5 percent from a year earlier. As such, this resulted in a trade deficit of -2.5 billion USD in January 2014.
Major trading partners 2013 2014 (Export share 2011=>2012) 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan Total Exports Value (%yoy) -0.3 3.9 -2.2 -1.7 -1.0 1.9 -2.0 1. China (11.7%>>>11.9%) 1.4 7.3 -13.4 -0.3 12.9 16.1 -0.8 2. US (9.9%>>>10%) 0.8 0.8 -3.5 0.7 5.2 3.9 0.4 3. Japan (10.2%>>>9.7%) -5.2 1.5 -6.3 -10.1 -5.5 -1.7 1.8 4. Europe (8.5%>>>8.8%) 2.7 7.0 -5.3 3.3 6.3 -9.2 4.6 5. Hong Kong (5.7%>>>5.8%) 0.7 11.2 7.7 -1.4 -12.0 9.6 -14.0 6. Malaysia (5.4%>>>5.7%) 4.7 -0.8 5.8 12.4 2.0 0.2 -3.9 7. Australia (4.9%>>>5.2%) 5.6 30.4 14.5 -5.2 -9.4 22.1 -24.2 PS. ASEAN-9 (24.6%>>>26.0%) 5.0 5.9 2.4 10.8 1.2 4.5 -5.05. Supply-side indicators in January 2014 suggested slowdown in tourism as affected by political situation. The number of inbound tourists in January 2014 was 2.3 million persons, slightly expanding by 0.1 percent per year or equivalent to -6.3 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. However, tourists from Russia, Singapore, and UK still expanded by 22.8, 17.3, and 10.7 percent respectively. Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) in January 2014 continued to decrease by -7.4 percent from a year earlier. This was due to contraction in furniture and decorations, automobile, and food by -26.5, -35.7, and -9.0 percent respectively. However, items that showed expansion were electronics, and radio and television by 3.8, and 1.6 percent respectively, consistent with export expansion in electronic goods and electrical appliances. Consistently, Thai Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) in January 2014 stood at 86.9 points, the lowest points in the past 55 months, due to producers' concerns about political situation where some government agencies and business were shutdown and the government declared state of emergency. However, Agricultural Production Index (API) in January 2014 continued to increase by 3.2 percent mainly due to expansion in major crops, such as para rubber of which cultivated and harvest area were increased in eastern and northeastern region of Thailand.
Supply Side Indicators 2013 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan Manufacturing Production Index (%yoy) -3.2 2.9 -4.9 -3.5 -7.1 -6.3 -6.4* %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -2.9 -5.7 -1.4 3.3 2.4 -2.6 Number of In-Bound Tourists (%yoy) 19.6 22.1 21.3 26.1 10.7 6.7 0.1 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - 1.1 6.8 5.8 -2.6 -4.1 -6.3 Agricultural Production Index (%yoy) 0.6 1.1 -0.4 -2.9 3.0 1.6 3.2 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -1.6 -0.4 -1.2 6.0 1.9 -1.06. Economic stability remained robust on both internal and external sides. Headline inflation in January 2014 was at 1.9 percent from last year, due to price increase in food, non-alcohol beverage, and dairy products, while core inflation stood at 1.0 percent. Unemployment rate in December 2013 was at 0.6 percent of total labor force or equivalent to 248,000 unemployed person. Public debt to GDP ratio at the end of December 2013 stood at 45.7 percent, well below the 60 percent level under the Fiscal Sustainability Framework. Likewise, external economic stability remained robust and resilient to the risk from volatilities in the global economy, as indicated by the high-level of international reserves at the end of January 2014 at 166.7 billion USD, or approximately 2.8 times of short-term external debt.
Macroeconomic Stability Indicators 2013 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan Internal Stability Headline Inflation (%yoy) 2.2 3.1 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 Core Inflation (%yoy) 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 Unemployment rate (% of total labor 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 n.a. force) Public debt (%GDP) 45.7 44.2 44.5 45.5 45.7 45.7 n.a. External Stability Current Account Balance (Billion USD) -2.8 0.7 -7.2 -0.9 5.2 2.5 n.a. International Reserves (Billion USD) 167.2 177.8 170.8 172.3 167.2 167.2 166.7 Forward (Billion USD) 23.0 23.7 23.7 21.2 23.0 23.0 22.2Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th