Attachment
Indicators in February 2014 indicated that Thai economy showed continued slowing signs which was affected by political unrest both on expenditure and production sides, especially tourism. Meanwhile, exports showed improving signs toward major trading partners.
1. Private consumption in February 2014 showed slowing sign from last month. This was reflected by real VAT collection which contracted by -2.4 percent per year, due to decrease of -8.9 percent per year of real VAT collection on import goods. However, the real VAT collection on domestic consumption expanded by 2.2 percent per year. The motorcycle sales contracted by -14.0 percent from a year earlier, but increased by 16.1 percent from last month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). Looking into detail, motorcycle sales in Bangkok showed expansion of 25.2 percent from last year and motorcycle sales in others regions except Bangkok decreased by -24.1 percent per year. Moreover, passenger car sales in February 2014 also showed continued contraction of -54.2 percent per year. These were due to slowdown economic and political situations affecting consumers' purchasing decisions. Likewise, imports of consumer goods in February 2014 showed a contraction of -9.8 percent per year. Further, Consumer Confidence Index in February 2014 has declined for 11 consecutive months and stood at 59.7 points, the lowest level in past 12 years. This was due to consumers' concerns about political situation, slowdown in Thai economy and global economic recovery.
Private Consumption Indicators 2013 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb Real Value Added Tax Collection (%yoy) -0.7 6.8 -0.3 -7.3 -1.0 2.7 -2.4 0.3 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -2.0 -3.2 -0.9 5.5 3.5 -4.5 - Imports of Consumer Goods (%yoy) 4.4 4.6 7.7 6.2 -0.2 -5.3 -9.8 -7.3 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -3.7 -1.6 -1.2 6.3 3.6 -10.1 - Passenger Car Sales (%yoy) -6.1 97.2 -3.3 -24.8 -39.7 -55.9 -54.2 -55.0 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -3.3 -27.3 -2.8 -11.0 -35.8 -2.3 - Motorcycle Sales (%yoy) -6.0 5.4 -6.2 -8.7 -14.9 -30.3 -14.0 -22.2 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -2.0 -4.9 -3.7 -4.9 -14.4 16.1 - Consumer Confidence Index 70.2 73.8 72.8 69.3 64.9 61.4 59.7 60.62. Private investment in February 2014 also showed slowing signs from last month, especially investment in machinery sector. This was reflected by continued contraction in commercial car sales in February 2014 by -35.9 percent from a year earlier. This was due to economic slowdown and political situation affecting consumers' purchasing decision. Further, import of capital goods in February 2014 declined by -6.6 percent. Private investment indicators of construction sector also showed slowing signs as reflected by decrease in cement sales in February 2014 by -2.1 percent per year. Moreover, real estate tax collection also declined by -3.8 percent.
Private Investment Indicators 2013 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb YTD Construction Real Estate tax Collection (%yoy) 17.9 35.2 11.0 22.0 9.1 -5.5 -3.8 -4.6 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -1.5 -1.4 8.2 4.0 -4.3 -4.6 - Cement Sales (%yoy) 8.3 15.9 14.6 3.0 0.3 -1.4 -2.1 -1.7 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -0.6 1.3 -1.3 1.0 8.1 -1.6 - Machinery Commercial Car Sales (%yoy) -8.4 19.4 3.2 -26.2 -24.1 -36.2 -35.9 -36.0 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -3.1 -7.6 -14.2 -0.9 -12.5 -7.0 - Import of capital goods (%yoy) -5.9 3.7 -1.5 -7.9 -16.6 -19.3 -6.6 -13.6 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -11.8 0.1 -5.1 -0.5 -2.6 -0.2 - Import of capital goods exc. -10.2 -0.7 -11.2 -10.0 -18.0 -12.3 -15.0 -13.6 aircraft, ship and train (%yoy) %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -8.5 -5.3 -1.0 -4.5 5.0 -6.1 -3. Fiscal indicators in February 2014 showed deficit. The budget disbursement recorded at 174.4 billion baht, an expansion of 14.7 percent per year. This amount comprised of (1) current year expenditure of 154.1 billion baht, which expanded by 18.1 percent per year (including a current expenditure of 141.9 billion baht, or an increase of 15.8 percent year-on-year growth, and a capital expenditure of 12.2 billion baht or an increase of 53.6 percent year-on-year). In February 2014, the net government revenue collection (net of local authorities' allocation) amounted to 147.6 billion baht or a decrease of -5.4 percent from last year. Tax items, such as VAT and motor vehicle excise tax, showed contraction by -1.1 and -37.6 percent respectively. As for fiscal position, budget balance in February 2014 showed a deficit of -48.9 billion baht.
Fiscal Sector Indicators FY2013 FY2013 FY2014 Q1/ Q2/ Q3/ Q4/ Q1/ Jan Feb YTD FY13 FY13 FY13 FY13 FY14 Net Government Revenue 2,161.3 508.5 469.6 641.9 537.5 503.4 151.9 147.6 802.9 (net of local authorities' allocation) (%y-o-y) 9.4 27.6 13.7 3.4 -1.2 -1.0 -7.1 -5.4 -3.0 Expenditure 2,402.5 785.9 585.7 482.0 548.9 831.1 213.2 174.4 1,218.6 (%y-o-y) 4.7 60.5 -24.9 4.8 -3.0 5.7 2.4 14.7 6.3 Budget Balance -239.0 -283.6 -109.1 165.1 -11.4 -333.4 -51.4 -48.9 -433.24. Exports in February 2014 showed improving signs from previous month. Export value in February 2014 stood at 18.4 billion USD, equivalent toan increase of 2.4 percentfrom last year. However, export value excluding gold expanded by 0.3 percent per year (Gold exports increased by 370.6 percent per year). This was resulted from expansion in electronics, electrical appliances and vehicles which expanded by 9.6, 7.2 and 17.2 percent per year. Exports to major trading partners such as Europe, Japan, Hong Kong and CLMV increased by 7.0, 2.7, 8.7 and 14.1 percent respectively. Import value amounted to 16.6 billion USD in February 2014, decreased by -16.6 percent from a year earlier. As such, this resulted in a trade surplus of 1.8 billion USD in February 2014.
Major trading partners 2013 2014 (Export share 2011=>2012) 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan YTD %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -0.5 -3.5 0.6 2.6 -1.2 -0.2 - 1. China (11.7%>>>11.9%) 1.4 7.3 -13.4 -0.3 12.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 2. US (9.9%>>>10%) 0.8 0.8 -3.5 0.7 5.2 0.4 -2.3 -1.0 3. Japan (10.2%>>>9.7%) -5.2 1.5 -6.3 -10.1 -5.5 1.8 2.7 2.3 4. Europe (8.5%>>>8.8%) 2.7 7.0 -5.3 3.3 6.3 4.6 7.0 5.8 5. Hong Kong (5.7%>>>5.8%) 0.7 11.2 7.7 -1.4 -12.0 -14.0 8.7 -3.0 6. Malaysia (5.4%>>>5.7%) 4.7 -0.8 5.8 12.4 2.0 -3.9 6.9 1.2 7. Australia (4.9%>>>5.2%) 5.6 30.4 14.5 -5.2 -9.4 -24.2 0.8 -12.1 8. Middle East (5.0%>>>5.1%) 0.5 4.4 -5.6 3.4 0.0 3.5 0.4 1.9 PS. ASEAN-9 (24.6%>>>26.0%) 5.0 5.9 2.4 10.8 1.2 -5.0 0.9 -2.1 PS. ASEAN-5 (17.2%>>>17.6%) 2.0 5.4 -0.7 11.2 -7.1 -10.8 -4.9 -8.0 PS. ASEAN-4 (7.4%>>>8.3%) 11.8 7.0 9.9 10.0 20.3 7.9 14.1 10.95. Supply-side indicators in February 2014 suggested slowdown especially in tourism as affected by political uncertainty. The number of inbound tourists in February 2014 was 2.2 million persons or decreased by -8.1 percent per year. This showed the first contraction in past 27 months since flood crisis in November 2011. Moreover, tourists which contracted the most were China, Malaysia and Japan with -29.8, -16.6, and -27.7 percent respectively. Manufacturing Production Index (MPI, preliminary data) in February 2014 continued to decrease by -4.4 percent from a year earlier. This was due to contraction in vehicles, furniture and decorations, petroleum by -21.3, -13.9, and -8.6 percent per year respectively. However, items that showed expansion were textiles, and radio and television by 12.5 and 5.7 percent respectively. Consistently, Thai Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) in February 2014 stood at 85.7 points, the lowest points in past 56 months since July 2009, due to producers' concerns about political situation where some government agencies and business were shutdown and the government declared state of emergency. However, Agricultural Production Index (API) in February 2014 increased by 1.9 percent per year but decelerated from last month. This was due to decrease in paddy rice production from drought while rubber harvest area increased in Eastern and Northeastern region of Thailand, in tandem with increasing livestock especially pork and poultry from strong demand.
Supply Side Indicators 2013 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb YTd Manufacturing Production Index (%yoy) -3.2 2.9 -4.9 -3.5 -7.1 -5.6 -4.4* -5.0 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -2.9 -5.7 -1.4 3.3 -2.6 0.8 - Number of In-Bound Tourists (%yoy) 19.6 22.1 21.3 26.1 10.7 0.1 -8.1 -4.1 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - 1.1 6.8 5.8 -2.6 -6.2 -5.0 - Agricultural Production Index (%yoy) 0.6 1.1 -0.4 -2.9 3.0 2.5 1.9 0.8 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -1.6 -0.4 -1.2 6.0 -0.4 -1.7 - (*) preliminary data 6. Economic stability remained robust on both internal and external sides. Headline inflation in February 2014 was at 1.9 percent from last year, due to price increase in food, non-alcohol beverage, and dairy products, while core inflation stood at 1.0 percent. Unemployment rate in February 2014 was at 0.9 percent of total labor force or equivalent to 248,000 unemployed persons. Public debt to GDP ratio at the end of December 2013 stood at 45.7 percent, well below the 60 percent level under the Fiscal Sustainability Framework. Likewise, external economic stability remained robust and resilient to the risk from volatilities in the global economy, as indicated by the high-level of international reserves at the end of February 2014 at 166.7 billion USD, or approximately 2.8 times of short-term external debt. Macroeconomic Stability Indicators 2013 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb YTD Internal Stability Headline Inflation (%yoy) 2.2 3.1 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 Core Inflation (%yoy) 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.1 Unemployment rate 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.9* 0.9 (% of total labor force) Public debt (%GDP) 45.7 44.2 44.5 45.5 45.7 45.8 n.a. 45.8 External Stability Current Account Balance (Billion USD) -2.8 0.7 -7.2 -0.9 5.2 0.2 n.a. 0.2 International Reserves (Billion USD) 167.2 177.8 170.8 172.3 167.2 166.7 168.1 168.1 Forward (Billion USD) 23.0 23.7 23.7 21.2 23.0 22.2 23.2 23.2 (*) preliminary data Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th