“Indicators in April 2014 indicated that Thai economy showed continued slowing signs from last year, but improving signs from last month in both domestic and external demands. Manufacturing sector showed lower contraction. This was affected by economic and political uncertainty. Meanwhile, tourism sector showed improving signs since the Emergency decree was lifted”
Mr. Somchai Sujjapongse, Director-General of the Fiscal Policy Office, revealed that “Indicators in April 2014 indicated that Thai economy showed continued slowing signs from last year, but improving signs from last month in both domestic and external demands. Manufacturing sector showed lower contraction. This was affected by economic and political uncertainty. Meanwhile, tourism sector showed improving signs since the Emergency decree was lifted”.
Private consumption in April 2014 showed slowing sign from last year but remained stable from last month. This was reflected by real VAT collection which contracted by -1.2 percent per year, but expended by 1.1 percent from last month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). The passenger car sales in April 2014 also showed continued contraction of –34.4 percent per year, increasing by 14.3 percent from last month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA).The motorcycle sales contracted by -21.5 percent from a year earlier, due to decreasing farmer income. Further, Consumer Confidence Index in April 2014 stood at 57.7 points, the lowest level in past 12 years.
Private investment in April 2014 also showed slowing signs from last year, but slight improving signs from last month for investment in construction sector. This was reflected by real estate tax collection also declined by -7.7 percent per year, but increasing by 5.5 percent from last month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). Moreover, cement sale in April 2014 which contracted by -3.1 percent per year, but increasing by 1.3 percent from last month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). Private investment indicators of machinery sector also showed slowing signs as reflected by decrease in commercial car sales by -32.3 percent per year, but expanding by 10.7 percent per year after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). The import of capital goods in April 2014 declined by -16.9 percent per year. This was due to decreasing consumer’s confidence.
Exports of goods in April 2014 showed improving signs from previous month. Export value in April 2014 stood at 17.2 billion USD, equivalent to a decrease of -0.9 percent from last year, but increasing by 1.8 percent from last month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). This was resulted from contraction in electronics, vehicles and agricultural products. However, the electrical appliances expanded by 3.8 percent per year, in tandem with exports to the United States and Europe. Supply-side indicators in April 2014 suggested slight slowdown especially in manufacturing and tourism but positive signs from last month. Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) in April 2014 continued to decrease by -3.9 percent from a year earlier, but increasing by 2.9 percent from last month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). This was due to contraction in vehicles and food. However, items that showed expansion were radio and television, textiles and jewelry. Service sector showed improving signs from last month as reflected by the number of inbound tourists in April 2014 was 2.0 million persons or decreased by -1.7 percent per year, but increasing by 7.6 percent from last month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). This was due to the fact that the government lifted the Emergency decree. However, Agricultural Production Index (API) in April 2014 increased by 5.6 percent per year. This was due to increase in corn and livestock production. However, agricultural price contracted by -5.8 percent per year which decreased farmer income by -4.2 percent per year.
Economic stability remained robust on both internal and external sides. Headline inflation in April 2014 was at 2.5 percent. Unemployment rate in April 2014 stood at 0.9 percent of total labor force. Likewise, external economic stability remained robust and resilient to risks from volatilities in global economy, as indicated by high-level of international reserves at the end of April 2014 at 168.9 billion USD, or approximately 2.8 times of short-term external debt.
Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th