Monthly Economic Report (August 2014)

ข่าวเศรษฐกิจ Thursday October 2, 2014 13:41 —Ministry of Finance

“Indicators in August 2014 indicated that Thai economy showed slowing signs due to the consumption and the private investment. Export value decreases due to the slow growth of world economy. As a result, manufacturing production decreases continuously and tourism sector shows declining trend. However, the domestic production of agricultural sector still expands and both internal and external stability show robust sign.”

Mr. Krisda Chinavicharana, Deputy Director-General of the Fiscal Policy Office, acting Spokesperson of the Fiscal Policy Office revealed that “Indicators in August 2014 indicated that Thai economy showed slowing signs on consumption and private investment. Moreover, export value showed declining trend due to the slow growth of world economy. As a result, manufacturing production decreased continuously and tourism sector showed declining trend. However, the production of agricultural sector showed positive sign. Furthermore, internal and external stabilities remained robust.”

Private consumption in August 2014 showed declining trend from last month. This was reflected by real VAT collection which contracted by -0.8 percent per year, decreasing by -1.4 percent from last month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). However, Consumer Confidence Index in August 2014 was increasingly adjusted to 70.1 points, showing continued expansion for 4 consecutive months and highest level in 13 months. This was due to consumers’ confidence about Thai economy, improvement in political situation, and government policy has initiated concretely.

Private investment also showed decreasing signs from last month particularly the investment in construction. This was reflected by real estate tax collection also declined by -14.1 percent per year, and decreasing by -4.5 percent from last month. Moreover, cement sale in August 2014 contracted by -2.7 percent per year, and declined -0.1 percent per month. Private investment indicators of machinery sector which was reflected by the commercial car sales contracted by -21.2 per year. However, the commercial car sales expanded by 0.7 percent from last month.

External demand still contracted. Export value in August 2014 stood at 18.9 billion USD, equivalent to a decrease of -7.4 percent from last year and contracted by -2.1 from last month. The decrease in export values was a result from the slow production in vehicles and agricultural products such as rubber.

Ms. Kulaya Tantitemit, Executive Director of Macroeconomic Policy Bureau, further elaborated those supply-side indicators in August 2014 showed declining trend in manufacturing sector and tourism sector. Agricultural Production Index (API) in August 2014 increased by 2.1 percent per year, compared to -1.6 percent from last month. This was due to the decreasing production in crop such as rice and tapioca caused by droughts at the beginning of the year. Furthermore, farmers reduced the second-round planting of out-of-season rice corresponding to the decreasing in tapioca cultivation, which was harvested from previous. Furthermore, most of rice was harvested from the previous period. The production of livestock also expanded especially pork and chicken from increasing demand. For service sector, the number of inbound tourists in August 2014 was 2.08 million persons or decreased by -11.9 per year, but increased by 2.1 percent from last month due to the better situation and the numbers of countries that announced the warning in Thai tourism decreased from 68 countries to 58 countries. However, the manufacturing sector was reflected by Manufacturing Production Index in August 2014 (preliminary figure) decreased -2.7 percent per year, but increased by 3.9 percent from the last month. The jewelry and vehicle sector showed the declining trend, while the electronic sector as well as radio and television broadcasting services showed expanding trend.

Internal and external stabilities remained robust. Headline inflation stood at at 2.1 percent per year. Unemployment rate was low at 0.7 percent of total labor force or 2.87 hundred thousand persons of total labor force. Likewise, external economic stability remained robust, as indicated by high-level of international reserves at the end of August 2014 at 167.5 billion USD, or approximately 2.7 times of short-term external debt. This reflected the resilient ability to risk from the volatilities in global economy.

Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th

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