Attachment
Indicators in August 2014 indicated that Thai economy showed slowing signs on consumption and private investment. Moreover, export value showed declining trend due to the slow growth of world economy. As a result, manufacturing production decreased continuously and tourism sector showed declining trend. However, the production of agricultural sector showed positive sign. Furthermore, internal and external stabilities remained robust.
1. Private consumption in August 2014 showed decreasing sign from last month. This was reflected by real VAT collection which contracted by -0.8 percent per year, different from the last month when the real VAT collection increased by 3.9 percent per year. Looking into details, the real VAT collection on import goods sharply contracted by -8.1 percent per year, while the real VAT collection on domestic consumption expanded by 5.1 percent different from the last month when it increased by 6.8 percent. Furthermore, Consumer Confidence Index in August 2014 rose up to 70.1 points, showing continued expansion for 4 consecutive months and highest level in 13 months. This was due to consumers’ confidence about Thai economy, improvement in political situation, and the initiation in the government policy. However, The motorcycle sales contracted by -11.4 percent from a year earlier due to decreasing motorcycle sales in Bangkok and others regions. Moreover, passenger car sales in August 2014 also showed continued contraction of -41.2 percent per year. However, the passenger car sales expanded by 1.8 percent per month from last month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA).
Private Consumption Indicators 2013 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jul Aug YTD Real Value Added Tax Collection (%yoy) -0.7 6.8 -0.3 -7.3 -1.0 -0.1 0.3 3.9 -0.8 0.4 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -2.0 -3.2 -0.9 5.5 -3.2 -2.1 3.7 -1.4 - Imports of Consumer Goods (%yoy) 4.4 4.6 7.7 6.2 -0.2 -3.9 0.4 -3.3 n.a. n.a. %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -4.2 -1.1 -1.3 6.7 -7.9 3.8 0.0 - - Passenger Car Sales (%yoy) -6.1 97.2 -3.3 -24.8 -39.7 -55.3 -37.7 -37.5 -41.2 -46.0 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -3.3 -27.3 -2.8 -11.0 -25.6 0.2 -7.9 1.8 - Motorcycle Sales (%yoy) -6.0 5.4 -6.2 -8.7 -20.8 -20.8 -18.2 -8.3 -11.4 -17.2 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -2.0 -4.9 -3.7 -8.2 -7.9 -3.4 10.0 -4.7 - Consumer Confidence Index 70.2 73.8 72.8 69.3 64.9 59.9 61.2 68.5 70.1 62.82. Private investment including investment in machinery and construction showed declining sign from the last month. This was reflected by the real estate tax collection in August 2014, which declined by -14.1 percent per year, while last month it decreased by -9.7 percent. This was a result of the accelerating growth in real estate in 2013. The cement sale contracted by -21.2 percent per year, but increasing by 0.5 percent from last month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). However, commercial car sales were expanded to 0.7 percent compared to the last month.
Private Investment Indicators 2013 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jul Aug YTD Construction Real Estate tax Collection (%yoy) 17.9 35.2 11.0 22.0 9.1 -5.6 -5.8 -9.7 -14.1 -7.3 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -1.5 -1.4 8.2 4.0 -13.3 -3.9 3.8 -4.5 - Cement Sales (%yoy) 8.3 15.9 14.6 3.0 0.3 -2.4 -3.0 -0.4 -2.7 -2.4 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -0.6 1.3 -1.3 1.0 -2.2 0.7 0.5 -0.1 - Machinery Commercial Car Sales (%yoy) -8.4 19.4 3.2 -26.2 -24.1 -36.6 -30.6 -21.5 -21.2 -31.3 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -3.1 -7.6 -14.2 -0.9 -16.3 -2.8 -2.3 0.7 - Import of capital goods (%yoy) -5.9 3.7 -1.5 -7.9 -16.6 -14.1 -12.6 5.5 n.a. n.a. %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -9.8 -0.8 -4.7 -2.3 -7.0 0.7 15.9 - - Import of capital goods exc. -10.2 -0.7 -11.2 -10.0 -18.0 -11.4 -4.4 -8.0 n.a. n.a. aircraft, ship and train (%yoy) %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -8.3 -5.6 -0.8 -4.5 -1.0 1.8 -0.2 - -3. For fiscal indicators in August 2014, the budget disbursement recorded at 132.1 billion baht, a contraction of -7.9 percent per year. The 2014 budget disbursement can be disbursed at 124.7 billion baht, which contracted -4.3 percent per year. This amount comprised of (1) current year expenditure of 107.2 billion baht, which expanded by 0.8 percent per year and (2) a capital expenditure of 17.5 billion baht or a decrease of -27.2 percent year-on-year), which was 80.6 percent of budget framework FY2014 by 2,525.0 billion baht. In August 2014, the net government revenue collection (net of local authorities’ allocation) amounted to 203.2 billion baht or a decrease of -5.9 percent from last year. Looking into detail, 1) income tax contracted by -5.9 percent from a year earlier from a contraction of corporation income tax at -6.4 percent and a contraction of personal income tax at -4.1 due to the restructure of tax rates 2) consumption tax (value added tax) expanded by 1.2 percent from last year. The value added tax revenue from consumption increased by 7.2 percent from last year reflected the increasing consumption, while the value added tax levied from imports decreased by -6.3 percent from last year. For the first 11 months of FY2014, the net government revenue collection (net of local authorities’ allocation) amounted to 1,881.6 billion baht, decreased by -4.3 percent from last year, lower than expected -168.4 billion baht or -8.2 percent. As for fiscal position, budget balance in August 2014 showed a surpluus of 4.7 billion baht. For the first 11 months of FY2014, budget balance showed a deficit of –411.7 billion baht.
Fiscal Sector Indicators FY2013 FY2013 FY2014 Q1/ Q2/ Q3/ Q4/ Q1/ Q2/ Q3/ Jul Aug YTD FY13 FY13 FY13 FY13 FY14 FY14 FY14 Net Government 2,161.3 508.5 469.6 641.9 537.5 503.4 437.2 608.3 129.5 203.2 1,881.6 Revenue (net of local authorities’ allocation) (%y-o-y) 9.4 27.6 13.7 3.4 -1.2 -1.0 -6.9 -5.2 -0.8 -5.9 -4.3 Expenditure 2,402.5 785.9 585.7 482.0 548.9 831.1 553.0 514.7 200.2 132.1 2,231.1 (%y-o-y) 4.7 60.5 -24.9 4.8 -3.0 5.7 -5.6 6.8 17.0 -7.9 2.9 Budget Balance -239.0 -283.6 -109.1 165.1 -11.4 -334.7 -115.9 105.4 -71.2 4.7 -411.74. Exports of goods in August 2014 showed slowing signs from previous month. Export value in August 2014 was at 18.9 billion USD, equivalent to a decrease of –7.4 percent from last year. The sectors with decreasing export values were vehicle, agriculture (rubber), while the sectors with increasing export values were electronics and agricultural manufacture. Import value amounted to 17.8 billion USD in August 2014, decreased by -14.2 percent from a year earlier. As such, the smaller import value compared to that of exports resulted in a trade deficit of -1.2 billion USD in August 2014.
Major Exports Market 2013 2013 2014 (Exports Share 2012>>>2013) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jul Aug YTD Total Exports Value (%yoy) -0.3 3.9 -2.2 -1.7 -1.0 -1.0 0.3 -0.9 -7.5 -1.4 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -1.3 -2.8 1.7 1.7 -1.4 -0.8 -3.0 -2.1 - 1. China (11.7%>>>11.9%) 1.4 7.3 -13.4 -0.3 12.9 -4.4 -4.2 -1.7 n.a. n.a. 2. US (9.9%>>>10%) 0.8 0.8 -3.5 0.7 5.2 0.6 4.9 4.5 n.a. n.a. 3. Japan (10.2%>>>9.7%) -5.2 1.5 -6.3 -10.1 -5.5 2.0 -4.9 3.3 n.a. n.a. 4. Europe (8.5%>>>8.8%) 2.7 7.0 -5.3 3.3 6.3 4.8 11.0 7.3 n.a. n.a. 5. Hong Kong (5.7%>>>5.8%) 0.7 11.2 7.7 -1.4 -12.0 -1.8 1.7 -13.2 n.a. n.a. 6. Malaysia (5.4%>>>5.7%) 4.7 -0.8 5.8 12.4 2.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 n.a. n.a. PS. ASEAN-9 (24.6%>>>26.0%) 5.0 5.9 2.4 10.8 1.2 -5.4 0.2 -5.2 n.a. n.a. PS. ASEAN-5 (17.2%>>>17.6%) 2.0 5.4 -0.7 11.2 -7.1 -11.0 -3.7 -11.5 n.a. n.a. PS. ASEAN-4 (7.4%>>>8.3%) 11.8 7.0 9.9 10.0 20.3 7.1 8.8 9.3 n.a. n.a.5. Supply-side indicators in August 2014 showed slowing signs in manufacturing and tourism sector, while the agricultural production was reflected from Agricultural Production Index (API) in August 2014 increased by 2.1 percent per year, which was slow from last month when the API increased by 4.5 percent. This was due to decreasing crop production caused by droughts. Farmers reduced the second-round planting of out-of-season rice corresponding to the decreasing in tapioca cultivation, which was harvested from previous. However, corn product expanded corresponding to the increase in harvesting land. The production of livestock also expanded especially pork and chicken from increasing demand and there was no report about veterinary epidemiology. For manufacturing sector, Manufacturing Production Index in August 2014 (preliminary) contracted by 2.7 percent per year. Compared to the figure last month, the figure was increased by 3.9 percent per month. While jewelry sector and vehicle sector contracted, electronics sector and radio and television broadcasting services expanded. Thai Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) in August 2014 stood at 88.7 slightly decreasing from previous month. This was due to the slow expansion in domestic consumption. Moreover, flood in many regions was the obstacle of transportation and economic operation. Service sector was reflected by the number of inbound tourists in August 2014 was 2.08 million persons or decreased by -11.9 percent per year, but increased by 2.1 percent from last month. The number of tourists from South Africa expanded by 23.2 percent per year, while that of ASEAN, South-East Asian, and Europe contracted by -21.6 percent, -10.8 percent, and -3.3 percent per year, respectively.
Supply Side Indicators 2013 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jul Aug YTD Manufacturing Production Index (%yoy) -3.2 2.9 -4.9 -3.5 -7.1 -7.1 -5.0 -5.3 -2.7* -5.5* %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -2.9 -5.4 -1.4 3.4 -3.4 -3.4 0.6 3.9 - Number of In-Bound Tourists (%yoy) 18.8 22.1 24.3 21.4 9.3 -7.9 -13.0 -10.9 -11.9 -10.7 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - 4.5 5.7 1.8 -2.5 -11.8 -0.4 12.6 2.1 - Agricultural Production Index (%yoy) -2.4 -2.8 -3.6 -8.6 2.5 1.6 2.1 4.5 2.1 2.2 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -0.4 -3.2 -0.2 5.4 4.4 4.3 -0.1 -1.6 - *Preliminary 6. Internal and external stabilities remained robust. Headline inflation in July 2014 was at 2.2 percent from last year, decreased from last month at 2.4 percent due to the living cost measurement. Moreover, the proper climate supporting the quantities of products caused a decrease in fruit and vegetable prices. Core inflation stood at 1.8 percent. Unemployment rate in August 2014 was at 0.7 percent of total labor force or equivalent to 2.87 hundred thousand unemployed persons. Public debt to GDP ratio at the end of August 2014 stood at 46.9 percent, well below the 60 percent level under the Fiscal Sustainability Framework. Likewise, external economic stability remained robust and resilient to the risk from volatilities in the global economy, as indicated by the high-level of international reserves at the end of August 2014 at 167.5 billion USD, or approximately 2.7 times of short-term external debt. Macroeconomic Stability 2013 2013 2014 Indicators Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jul Aug YTD Internal Stability Headline Inflation (%yoy) 2.2 3.1 2.3 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 Core Inflation (%yoy) 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.5 Unemployment rate (% of total labor force)0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.9 Public debt (%GDP) 45.7 44.2 44.5 45.5 45.7 46.5 47.1 46.9 n.a. 46.9 External Stability Current Account Balance (Billion USD) -2.8 0.5 -6.7 0.8 2.9 8.2 0.5 -0.9 n.a. 7.9 International Reserves (Billion USD) 167.2 177.8 170.8 172.3 167.2 167.5 168.2 169.4 167.51 67.5 Forward (Billion USD) 23.0 23.7 23.7 21.2 23.0 23.6 23.7 22.6 23.7 23.7Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th