30 October 2014
"Indicators in September and Q3/2014 showed improving signs in domestic demand particularly in private consumption. External demand as reflected by exports continued to contract despite the fact that export values in September 2014 positively expanded. For the supply-side indicators, agricultural sector showed contraction, while the number of inbound tourists increased compared to that of previous quarter."Mr. Krisda Chinavicharana, Deputy Director-General of the Fiscal Policy Office, acting Spokesperson of the Fiscal Policy Office revealed that "Indicators in September and Q3/2014 indicated that Thai economy showed slightly improving signs in domestic demand particularly in private consumption. External demand as reflected by exports continued to contract despite the fact that export values in September 2014 positively expanded. For the supply-side indicators,agricultural sector showed contraction, while the number of inbound tourists increased compared to that of previous quarter."
Private consumption in September and Q3/2014 showed improving sign. This was reflected by real VAT collection at constant price in September 2014, which expanded by 4.1 percent per year. This was due to the increasing real VAT collection on imports and domestic consumption, which expanded by 2.8 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively. As a result, real VAT collection at constant price in the 3 rd quarter of 2014 expanded by 2.3 percent year-on-year and expanded by 0.7 percent from the previous quarter. Furthermore, Consumer Confidence Index in Q3/2014 increased to 61.2 points. This was due to consumers' confidence in Thai economy, improvement in political situation, and concrete government policies. Meanwhile, motorcycle sales in September 2014 declined by -4.4 percent from a year earlier both in Bangkok and other regions. This caused motorcycle sales in the 3 rd quarter contracted by -8.1 percent year-on-year, but expanded by 7.4 percent from the previous quarter.
Private investment in September and Q3/2014 showed slight improvement in machinery sector. This was reflected by the expansion in capital goods import in September, which expanded by 17.8 percent year-on-year. As a result, the capital goods import in Q3 remained at 0.0 percent year-on-year and expanded by 7.9 percent from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the private investment in construction sector showed slowing sign. This was reflected by cemen sales in September 2014, which contracted by -5.6 percent year-on-year. Furthermore, cemen sales in the 3 rd quarter of 2014 contracted by -2.9 percent yearon-year and declined by -2.2 percent from the last quarter.
Exports in September and Q3/2014 showed a slow pace ; even though the export in September expanded by 3.2 percent year-on-year. Consequently, the export in Q3/2014 still contracted by -1.8 percent year-on-year, which reflected the uncertainty of global economy.
Ms. Kulaya Tantitemit, Executive Director of Macroeconomic Policy Bureau, further elaborated that supply-side indicators showed slowing sign in agricultural sector, while service sector presented improving sign.Agricultural Production Index (API) in September 2014 decreased by -3.4 percent per year resulting in the contraction in Q3/2014 by -0.5 percent per year, and by -5.5 per quarter. This was due to by droughts during the beginning of the year. Therefore, farmers reduced the second-round planting of out-of-season rice corresponding to the decrease in tapioca products, which was harvested from previous. For the service sector, the number of inbound tourists in September 2014 declined by -7.0 percent year-on-year. As a result, the numbers of inbound tourists in Q3/2014 contracted by -10.1 percent per year, but expanded by 3.9 percent per quarter. This was due to the confidence of tourists in domestic situation.
Internal and external stabilities remained robust . Headline inflation stood at at 1.8 percent per year resulting in the headline inflation at 2.0 percent per year in Q3/2014. In addition, the unemployment rate in September 2014 was low at 0.8 percent of total labor force and that of in Q3/2014 was 0.8 percent or equivalent to 352,000 unemployed persons. Likewise, external economic stability remained robust, as indicated by high-level of international reserves at 161.9 billion USD, or approximately 2.7 times of short-term external debt. This reflected the resilient ability to risk from the volatilities in global economy.
Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th