Attachment
“Indicators in December and Q4/2014 showed improving signs from the previous period particularly in the demand side such as private and public expenditures, as well as exports. Also, indicators in the supply side such as manufacturing sector and tourism showed an improvement. However, agricultural sector continued to show slowing signs.”
1. Private consumption in December and Q4/2014 showed improving signs from last month. This reflected by real VAT collection at constant price in December 2014. Even though, it contracted by -1.9 percent per year, it expanded by 0.9 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. While real VAT collection on domestic consumption expanded by 0.8 percent per year, real VAT collection on imports continually contracted by -5.5 percent per year. Consequently, in Q4/2014, real VAT collection contracted by -0.9 per year, but after seasonal adjustment it expanded by 1.3 percent per quarter. Meanwhile, motorcycle sales in December 2014 decreased by -3.3 percent year-on-year, but after seasonal adjustment it expanded by 5.2 percent month-on-month. This was due to an improvement in motorcycle sales in other regions. Even though it showed a contraction, it showed an improving sign with slowing decline. Consequently, in Q4/2014 motorcycle sales decreased from last quarter by -7.8 percent per year. Also, passenger car sales in December 2014 still declined by -28.0 percent per year, but it expanded by 10.3 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. Therefore, in Q4/2014 passenger car sales contracted by -27.9 percent per year. This contracted less than that of last quarter, and it expanded by 0.2 percent per quarter after seasonal adjustment. Meanwhile, Consumer Confidence Index in December 2014 improved from last month by standing at 70.5 points. This was due to the economic stimulus package from the government particularly the subsidy in agricultural sector, the investment in maintenances, which was a supporting factor for local employments, and a decrease in domestic oil prices, which reduced production cost. Therefore, in Q4/2014 Consumer Confidence Index stood at 69.6 points higher than that of last quarter, which was 69.3 points. In addition, imports of consumer goods in December 2014 expanded by 18.3 percent per year, and increased by 9.6 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. Consequently, in Q4/2014 imports of consumer goods expanded by 8.7 percent per year increasing from last quarter, and it expanded by 7.8 percent per quarter after seasonal adjustment.
Private Consumption Indicators 2013 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec YTD Real Value Added Tax Collection (%yoy) -0.7 6.8 -0.3 -7.3 -1.1 -0.2 0.3 2.3 -0.9 0.6 -1.9 0.4 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -2.6 -1.9 -1.2 4.7 -1.8 -1.2 0.6 1.3 -4.2 0.9 - Imports of Consumer Goods (%yoy) 4.5 4.6 7.7 6.2 0.0 -3.9 0.4 0.4 8.7 1.7 18.3 1.5 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -0.5 -1.4 0.2 0.7 -3.4 3.4 0.3 7.8 -4.4 9.6 - Passenger Car Sales (%yoy) -6.1 97.2 -3.3 -24.8 -39.7 -55.3 -37.7 -38.3 -27.9 -27.7 -28.0 -41.4 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 2.9 -28.4 -4.7 -14.2 -23.9 0.8 -6.6 0.2 -3.9 10.3 - Motorcycle Sales (%yoy) -6.0 5.4 -6.2 -8.7 -14.9 -20.8 -18.2 -8.1 -7.8 -12.0 -3.3 -14.3 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -0.9 -4.8 -5.3 -4.5 -8.0 -2.0 6.7 -4.1 -6.2 5.2 - Consumer Confidence Index 70.2 73.8 72.8 69.3 64.9 59.9 61.2 69.3 69.6 68.8 70.5 64.52. Private investment in December 2014 showed improving signs in machinery sector. This was reflected by imports of capital goods in December 2014, which expanded by 2.9 percent per year, and increased by 8.2 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. However, in Q4/2014 imports of capital goods contracted -3.1 percent per year. Meanwhile, commercial car sales in December 2014 decreased by -16.1 percent per year, but expanded by 3.9 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. Therefore, in Q4/2014 commercial car sales contracted by -15.8 percent per year contracting less than that of last quarter, but it expanded by 0.5 percent per quarter after seasonal adjustment. Construction sector, which was reflected by real estate tax collection in December 2014 turned to increased by 12.0 percent per year. This was the second expansion of the year after the first expansion in September 2014. After seasonal adjustment, it expanded by 14.0 percent per month. As a consequence, in Q4/2014 real estate tax collection expanded by 1.6 percent per year, and expanded by 5.5 percent per quarter after seasonal adjustment. Likewise, cement sales in December 2014 showed the first expansion in 2014 by increasing at 0.2 percent per year, or expanded by 0.1 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. However, in Q4/2014 cement sales still contracted by -4.8 percent per year.
Private Investment Indicators 2013 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec YTD Construction Real estate tax collection(%yoy) 18.1 36.2 11.2 21.4 9.4 -5.6 -5.9 -2.1 1.6 -7.9 12.0 -2.8 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 2.3 -2.0 5.3 3.6 -11.3 -3.0 9.3 5.5 -3.8 14.0 - Cement Sales (%yoy) 8.3 15.9 14.6 3.0 0.3 -2.4 -3.0 -2.9 -4.8 -8.8 0.2 -3.2 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 0.6 1.2 -2.0 0.7 -2.0 0.5 -2.2 -1.4 -2.2 0.1 - Machinery Commercial Car Sales (%yoy) -8.4 19.4 3.2 -26.2 -24.1 -36.6 -30.6 -20.4 -15.8 -17.4 -16.1 -26.8 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -1.1 -8.2 -14.0 -3.8 -15.6 -1.4 0.0 0.5 1.1 3.9 - Import of capital goods (%yoy) -5.9 3.7 -1.5 -7.9 -16.5 -14.1 -12.6 0.0 -3.1 -8.5 2.9 -8.4 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -9.6 0.2 -6.7 -1.6 -6.4 1.8 6.9 -5.4 -6.8 8.2 - Import of capital goods exc. -10.2 -0.7 -11.2 -10.0 -18.0 -11.4 -4.4 -4.0 1.1 -3.9 6.2 -5.7 aircraft, ship and train (%yoy) %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -8.0 -5.6 -0.7 -5.0 -0.4 1.8 0.0 -0.4 -2.5 7.3 -3. Fiscal indicators in December and Q4/2014 reflected that fiscal policy played a role in supporting the Thai economy through budget deficit. Budget disbursement in December 2014 was amounted at 270.7 billion baht or contracted by -14.6 percent per year. The budget disbursement of current Fiscal Year amounted at 240.9 billion baht or contracted by -15.2 percent per year. This amounts comprised of (1) current year expenditure of 223.2 billion baht, which expanded by 27.5 percent per year and (2) capital expenditure of 17.7 billion baht, which contracted by -83.8 percent per year. Overall, the expenditure of FY2015 during Q4/2014 (or Q1/FY2015) was amounted at 766.4 billion baht. In other words, the disbursement rate was 29.8 percent of FY2015 expenditure framework (2,575.0 billion baht). The net government revenue collection (net of local authorities’ allocation) in December 2014 amounted at 170.4.3 billion baht or increased by 7.5 percent per year. Looking into details, (1) the revenue collection from consumption tax base (VAT) decreased by -1.6 percent per year. An increase in real VAT collection on domestic consumption, which expanded by 1.1 percent per year. (2) The revenue collection from income tax base contracted by -10.9 percent per year. This was due to an increase in personal income tax collection by 1.9 percent per year, while there was a decrease in corporate income tax collection by -17.2 percent per year. Consequently, in Q4/2014 (or Q1/FY2015) the net government revenue collection (net of local authorities’ allocation) amounted at 507.0 billion baht or expanded by 0.7 percent per year. Overall, the budget balance in December 2014 showed a deficit of -83.6 billion baht. Hence, in Q4/2014 (or Q1/FY2015) the budget balance showed a deficit of -344.6 billion baht.
Fiscal Sector Indicators FY2014 FY2014 FY2015 Q1/ Q2/ Q3/ Q4/ Budget Q1/ Nov Dec YTD FY14 FY14 FY14 FY14 Framework FY15 Net Government 2,073.9 503.5 437.2 608.3 525.0 2,325.0 507.0 162.9 170.4 507.0 Revenue (net of local authorities’ allocation) (%y-o-y) -4.1 -1.0 -6.9 -5.2 -3.1 2.2 0.7 -2.1 7.5 0.7 Expenditure 2,460.0 831.1 553.0 514.7 561.2 2,575.0 844.1 205.8 270.7 573.4 (%y-o-y) 2.4 5.7 -5.6 6.8 2.2 2.0 1.6 -19.3 -14.6 11.5 Budget Balance -390.0 -334.7 -115.9 105.5 -44.9 -250.0 -344.6 -69.7 -83.6 -344.64. Exports in December and Q4/2014 showed expanding signs. The export values in December 2014 was amounted at 18.8 billion USD or expanded by 1.9 percent per year or increased by 5.1 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. The expansion was caused by the increasing exports in manufacturing products, which continued to expand by 4.5 percent per year. The products that showed increasing exports were vehicles and parts, machinery and parts, and plastic products and plastic pellets. Agricultural products and agro-industry products expanded by 0.8 percent per year due to increasing exports in rice, sugar, and frozen seafood. Export markets showing the expansion in December 2014 comprised of U.S., Japan, Eurozone, and CLMV which expanded by 13.2, 5.9, 1.4, and 3.2 percent per year, respectively. Consequently, in Q4/2014 the export values was amounted at 57.5 billion USD, or expanded by 1.6 percent per year, and after seasonal adjustment it expanded by 3.8 percent per quarter. The export products showing the expansion in Q4/2014 were electronics, electric appliances, vehicles, and agro-industry, which expanded by 7.0, 6.8, 2.5, and 8.8 percent per year. Meanwhile, export markets showing the expansion in Q4/2014 comprised of ASEAN-9, U.S., Australia, Philippines, and Indochina-4, which expanded by 5.2, 7.2, 12.9, 20.4, and 6.8 percent per year, respectively. Meanwhile, the import values in December 2014 was amounted at 17.2 billion USD, or contracted by -8.7 percent per year. Therefore, in Q4/2014 the import values amounted at 56.0 billion USD or contracted by -5.6 percent per year. As such, the larger export value compared to that of imports resulted in a trade surplus of 1.6 billion USD in December 2014, and in Q4/2014 there was a trade surplus of 1.5 billion USD.
Major Exports Market 2013 2013 2014 (Exports Share 2012>>>2013) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec YTD Total Exports Value (%yoy) -0.3 3.9 -2.2 -1.7 -1.0 -1.4 0.0 -1.8 1.6 -1.0 1.9 -0.4 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -0.5 -2.4 1.6 0.4 -1.0 -0.8 -0.4 3.8 -3.6 5.1 - 1. China (11.7%>>>11.9%) 1.4 7.3 -13.4 -0.3 12.9 -4.5 -4.2 -6.3 -15.3 -18.7 -18.8 -7.9 2. US (9.9%>>>10%) 0.8 0.8 -3.5 0.7 5.2 0.6 4.9 3.4 7.2 2.7 13.2 4.1 3. Japan (10.2%>>>9.7%) -5.2 1.5 -6.3 -10.1 -5.5 0.7 -6.4 -1.0 -0.6 -10.7 5.9 -1.9 4. Europe (8.5%>>>8.8%) 2.7 7.0 -5.3 3.3 6.3 4.8 10.9 2.0 1.7 -5.2 1.4 4.7 5. Hong Kong (5.7%>>>5.8%) 0.7 11.2 7.7 -1.4 -12.0 -1.8 1.7 -13.5 -1.8 1.8 -9.5 -4.4 6. Malaysia (5.4%>>>5.7%) 4.7 -0.8 5.8 12.4 2.0 -0.1 -1.4 -5.0 -1.0 11.7 -7.8 -1.9 PS. ASEAN-9 (24.6%>>>26.0%) 5.0 5.9 2.4 10.8 1.2 -5.4 -0.1 1.1 5.2 9.0 -0.6 0.2 PS. ASEAN-5 (17.2%>>>17.6%) 2.0 5.4 -0.7 11.2 -7.1 -11.0 -4.1 -4.2 4.3 9.0 -2.9 -3.9 PS. ASEAN-4 (7.4%>>>8.3%) 11.8 7.0 9.9 10.0 20.3 7.0 8.8 13.6 6.8 8.9 3.2 9.05. Supply-side indicators in manufacturing sector and tourism showed improving signs, while agriculture showed slowing signs. Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) in December 2014 contracted by -0.4 percent per year, but expanded by 3.6 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. This was due to the expansion in radio and television, garment, and food. The industries showing the contraction comprised of jewelry, vehicle, petroleum, and electronics. As a result, in Q4/2014 the MPI slowly contracted by -2.4 percent per year, and after seasonal adjustment it expanded by 2.7 percent per quarter. The industries showing the expansion in Q4/2014 comprised of radio and television, garment, and chemical products. Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) in December 2014 improved from last month by standing at 92.7 points owning to the increase in purchasing orders and improving sales during New Year festival particularly the orders in fashion industry, food, electronics and electrical appliances. In addition, the Motor Expo 2014 stimulated vehicle sales, and the reduction in energy prices supported production and transportation costs. As a result, in Q4/2014 the TISI stood at 90.0 points increasing from last quarter, which was 88.2 points. Agricultural sector as reflected by Agricultural Production Index (API) in December 2014 continually decreased by -4.8 percent per year. This was mainly due to a contraction in cereal products particularly in paddy, which was a result of droughts during the beginning of the year. Moreover, there was a reduction in corn products for animal feed and pineapple products. Consequently, in Q4/2014 the API contracted by -3.5 percent per year, and after seasonal adjustment it contracted by -0.8 percent per quarter. The service sector reflected by the number of inbound tourists was recorded at 2.84 million persons in December 2014 or expanded by 11.8 percent per year, which was the third consecutive month of expansion since October 2014 after showing continued contraction from the beginning of the year. After seasonal adjustment it expanded by 4.6 percent per month. The tourists from China and Malaysia showed the highest share by expanding at 66.4 and 33.2 percent per year, respectively. Consequently, in Q4/2014 the number of tourists was amounted at 7.45 million persons or expanded by 7.0 percent per year, and expanded by 13.9 percent per quarter after seasonal adjustment.
Supply Side Indicators 2013 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec YTD Agricultural Production Index (%yoy) -2.2 6.6 -10.3 -7.4 0.5 3.1 5.4 1.8 -3.5 -2.9 -4.8 1.0 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 5.8 -12.1 3.0 4.8 8.3 -9.5 -0.7 -0.8 -8.9 -3.4 - Manufacturing Production Index -3.3 2.9 -5.1 -3.6 -7.1 -7.0 -4.8 -3.9 -2.4 -3.7 -0.4 -4.6 (%yoy, preliminary) %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -3.3 -4.9 -0.5 1.5 -3.3 -2.7 -3.7 2.7 -1.1 3.6 - Number of In-Bound Tourists (%yoy) 18.8 22.1 24.3 21.4 9.3 -9.0 -15.9 -10.1 7.0 2.5 11.8 -6.7 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - 6.1 6.7 0.3 -3.9 -11.1 -2.1 7.6 13.9 -1.9 4.6 -6. Internal externality and external stability remained robust. Headline inflation in December 2014 decreased to 0.6 percent per year decreasing from last month, which was 1.3 percent per year. This was mainly due to a decline in crude oil price in world market, which showed a continually decreasing signs. This affected the restructuring of retail gas prices particularly gasohol price. Additionally, there was a decreasing price in meat, fishing products, and poultry products caused by an increasing production, but remaining demand. Furthermore, core inflation stood at 1.7 percent per year and as a result, in Q4/2014 headline inflation and core inflation stood at 1.4 and 1.6 percent per year, respectively. Unemployment rate in December 2014 was 0.6 percent of total labor force, or equivalent to 220,000 unemployed persons. Hence, in Q4/2014 unemployment rate stood at 0.6 percent of total labor force. Public debt GDP ratio at November 2014 stood at 46.1 percent, still below the Fiscal Sustainability Framework, which was targeted at 60.0 percent. Likewise, external economic stability remained robust and resilient to the risk from volatilities in the global economy, as indicated by the high-level of international reserves at the end of December 2014 at 157.1 billion USD, or approximately 2.7 times of short-term external debt.
Macroeconomic Stability 2013 2013 2014 Indicators Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec YTD Internal Stability Headline Inflation (%yoy) 2.2 3.1 2.3 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.3 0.6 1.9 Core Inflation (%yoy) 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 Unemployment rate (% of total labor force)0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 Public debt (%GDP) 45.7 44.2 44.5 45.5 45.7 46.5 47.1 47.2 46.1* 46.1 n.a. 46.1 External Stability Current Account Balance (Billion USD) -2.5 0.5 -6.7 0.8 2.9 8.2 -0.4 -0.5 4.3** 1.7 n.a. 11.6 International Reserves (Billion USD) 167.2 177.8 170.8 172.3 167.2 167.5 168.2 161.6 157.1 158.5 157.1 157.1 Forward (Billion USD) 23.0 23.7 23.7 21.2 23.0 23.6 23.7 24.7 23.1 23.7 23.1 23.1Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th