26 February 2015
Mr. Krisada Chinavicharana, Director-General of the Fiscal Policy Office, Spokesperson of the Fiscal Policy Office revealed that "Indicators in January 2015 showed improving signs from the private consumption, reflected by VAT collection from domestic consumption base, and public expenditures. However, the private investment showed slowing signs, meanwhile the exports showed contracting signs particularly from the exports in agricultural and agro-industrial products such as rubber to China."
Private consumption in January 2015 showed improving signs from the previous month. This reflected by the real VAT collection at constant price from domestic consumption base in January 2015, which increased by 9.5 percent per year or increased by 6.8 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. Motorcycle sales in January 2015 showed the first expansion at 14.5 percent per year due to the significantly increasing sales in Bangkok. Meanwhile, Consumer Confidence Index in January 2015 was 69.7 points slightly decreasing from last month since people still perceived that the economy recovered slowly and agricultural prices decreased continually.
Private investment in January 2015 showed slowing signs particularly in the construction sector. This was reflected by the domestic cement sales in January 2015 which contracted by -5.8 percent per year. However, the real estate tax collection in January 2015 continued to increase and this was the second consecutive month of the expansion. The accelerating transfer of real estate was due to people's expectation in the law enforcement of land and building tax and inheritance tax. Investment in machinery sector reflected by imports of capital goods excluding aircraft, ships, and trains contracted by -4.5 percent per year.
Fiscal indicators in January 2015 showed that the fiscal policy played a role in supporting Thai economy through a budget deficit. The budget balance in January 2015 showed a deficit of -57.6 billion baht.The net government revenue collection (net of local authorities' allocation) amounted at 158.9 billion baht. Meanwhile, the budget disbursement in January 2015 was recorded at 215.7 billion baht, which showed the expansion by 1.2 percent per year.
External demand reflected by exports in January 2015 turned to contract. The exports in January 2015 contracted by -3.5 percent per year. The contraction was caused by the declining exports in agricultural and agro-industry products and fuel, which decreased by -13.0 and -28.1 percent per year, respectively. The export markets showing a contraction were China, Japan, Eurozone, and ASEAN-5, which contracted by -19.7, -7.5, -5.0, and -4.8 percent per year, respectively.
Ms. Kulaya Tantitemit, Executive Director of Macroeconomic Policy Bureau, further elaborated that supply-side indicators in agricultural sector reflected by Agricultural Production Index (API) in January 2015 expanded by 1.2 percent per year or expanded by 6.0 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. This was due to the increasing production in agricultural products particularly rubber and paddy. Furthermore, livestock production still expanded due to the expansion in pork, chicken, and eggs. For Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) in January 2015 will be formally announced by the Ministry of Industry on 27 February 2015. Meanwhile, the number of inbound tourists in January 2015 has been collected by the Ministry of Tourism and Sports .
Internal stabilities and external stabilities remained robust. These reflected the resilient ability to risk from the volatilities in global economy . In January 2015, headline inflation contracted by -0.4 percent per year. This was the first contraction in 5 years due to a reduction in retail prices of domestic gas, which was caused by a reduction in crude oil price in world market. The unemployment rate in January 2015 was low at 1.1 percent of total labor force or equivalent to 404,000 unemployed persons. Likewise, external economic stability remained robust, as indicated by high-level of international reserves at 155.4 billion USD, or approximately 2.7 times of short-term external debt.
Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th