Attachment
"Indicators in January 2015 showed improving signs from the private consumption, reflected by VAT collection from domestic consumption base, and public expenditures. However, the private investment showed slowing signs, meanwhile the exports showed contracting signs particularly from the exports in agricultural and agro-industrial products such as rubber to China."1.Private consumption in January 2015 showed improving signs from last month. This reflected by real VAT collection at constant price on domestic consumption base in January 2015, which increased by 9.5 percent per year or 6.8 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. While real VAT collection at constant price on imports continually contracted by -17.1 percent per year. Consequently, real VAT collection in January 2015 contracted by -2.0 percent per year. Motorcycle sales in January 2015 showed the first expansion at 14.5 percent year-on-year due to the significantly increasing sales in Bangkok. Consumer Confidence Index in January 2015 was at 69.7 points slightly decreasing from the previous month since people still perceived that the economy recovered slowly and the agricultural prices decreased continually. Meanwhile, the exports and tourism did not improve well and NGV and LPG prices tended to increase. In addition, imports of consumer goods in January 2015 turned to contracted by -0.2 percent per year.
Private Consumption 2013 2014 2014 2015 Indicators Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov. Dec. Jan. Real Value Added Tax Collection (%yoy) -0.7 0.4 -0.2 0.3 2.3 -0.9 0.6 -1.9 -2.0 %qoq_SA /%mom_SA -1.8 -1.2 0.6 1.3 -4.2 1.1 1.3 Imports of Consumer Goods (%yoy) 4.5 1.5 -3.9 0.4 0.4 8.7 1.7 18.3 -0.2 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -3.4 3.4 0.3 7.8 -6.0 9.3 -8.8 Motorcycle Sales (%yoy) -6.0 -14.3 -20.8 -18.2 -8.1 -7.8 -12.0 -3.3 14.5 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -8.0 -2.0 6.7 -4.1 -6.2 5.3 -0.1 Consumer Confidence Index 70.2 64.5 59.9 61.2 69.3 69.6 68.8 70.5 69.72.Private investment in January 2015 showed slowing signs in construction sector. This was reflected by domestic cement sales in January 2015, which contracted by -5.8 percent per year. However, the real estate tax collection in January 2015 continued to increase and this was the second consecutive month of the expansion. The accelerating transfer of real estate was due to people's expectation in the law enforcement of land and building tax and inheritance tax. Investment in machinery sector reflected by imports of capital goods excluding aircraft, ships, and trains contracted by -4.5 percent per year.
Private Investment Indicators 2013 2014 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov. Dec. Jan. Construction Real estate tax collection(%yoy) 18.1 -2.3 -5.6 -5.9 -2.1 3.4 -6.6 15.6 16.2 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -11.3 -3.0 9.4 7.1 -3.8 15.5 -1.0 Cement Sales (%yoy)) 8.3 -3.2 -2.4 -3.0 -2.9 -4.8 -8.8 0.2 -5.8 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -1.8 0.5 -2.2 -1.4 -2.1 0.1 0.4 Machinery Import of capital goods (%yoy) -5.9 -8.4 -14.1 -12.6 0.0 -3.1 -8.5 3.5 3.4 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -6.4 1.8 6.9 -5.4 -6.7 8.9 -1.2 Import of capital goods exc. aircraft, -10.2 -5.7 -11.4 -4.4 -4.0 1.1 -3.9 6.9 -4.5 ship and train (%yoy) %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -0.4 1.8 0.0 -0.4 -3.0 8.0 -6.63.Fiscal indicators in January 2015 reflected that fiscal policy played a role in supporting the Thai economy through a budget deficit. The budget disbursement in January 2015 was amounted at 215.7 billion baht or expanded by 1.2 percent per year. The budget disbursement of current Fiscal Year amounted at 197.9 billion baht or expanded by 6.2 percent per year. This amounts comprised of (1) current year expenditure of 181.1 billion baht, which expanded by 2.0 percent per year and (2) capital expenditure of 16.8 billion baht, which expanded by 89.0 percent per year. The net government revenue collection (net of local authorities' allocation) in January 2015 amounted at 158.9 billion baht or increased by 1.8 percent per year. Looking into details, (1) tax collection from income base increased by 13.7 percent per year. This was due to an increase in personal income tax collection by 26.3 percent per year, while there was a decrease in corporate income tax collection by -1.3 percent per year. (2) tax collection from consumption base (VAT) decreased by -2.6 percent per year due to a decrease in tax collection on imports, which decreased by -17.6 percent per year, and this reflected the slowing in imports. Meanwhile, there was an increase in real VAT collection on domestic consumption, which expanded by 8.7 percent per year, and this reflected that the domestic consumption increased. Overall, the budget balance in January 2015 showed a deficit of -57.6 billion baht.
Fiscal Sector FY2014 FY2014 FY2015 Indicators Q1/ Q2/ Q3/ Q4/ Budget Q1/ Dec. Jan. YTD (Billion Baht) FY57 FY57 FY57 FY57 Framework FY58 Net Government Revenue 2,073.9 503.5 437.2 608.5 525.5 2,325.0 506.3 171.0 158.9 665.2 (net of local authorities’ allocation) (%y-o-y) -4.1 -1.0 -6.9 -5.2 -3.0 2.2 0.6 7.9 1.8 0.9 Expenditure 2,460.0 831.1 553.0 514.7 561.2 2,575.0 844.1 270.7 215.7 1,059.8 (%y-o-y) 2.4 5.7 -5.6 6.8 2.2 2.0 1.6 -14.6 1.2 1.5 Budget Balance -390.0 -334.7 -115.9 105.5 -44.9 -250.0 -347.8 -85.1 -57.6 -405.44. Exports in January 2015 showed contracting signs. The export values in January 2015 was amounted at 17.2 billion USD or contracted by -3.5 percent per year. The contraction was caused by the declining exports in agricultural and agro-industrial products, which decreased by -13.0 percent per year. Look into details, the exports of rubber and paddy contracted by -40.6 and -13.0 percent per year, respectively and the exports of finished oil contracted by -28.1 percent per year. The exporting products that showed expansion were manufacturing products, which increased by 0.6 percent per year. Look into details, the exports of vehicles and electronics expanded by 16.1 and 21.2 percent per year. Export markets showing the contraction in January 2015 comprised of China, Japan, Eurozone, and ASEAN-5 which contracted by -19.7, -7.5, -5.0, and -4.8 percent per year, respectively. Meanwhile, the import values in January 2015 was amounted at 17.7 billion USD, or contracted by -13.3 percent per year. As such, the smaller export value compared to that of imports resulted in a trade deficit of -0.5 billion USD in January 2015.
Major Exports Market 2013 2014 2014 2015 (Exports Share 2013>>>2014) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov. Dec. Jan. Total Exports Value (%yoy) -0.3 -0.4 -1.4 0.0 -1.8 1.6 -1.0 1.9 -3.5 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - - -1.0 -0.8 -0.4 3.8 -3.8 4.9 -5.2 1. China (11.9%>>>11.0%) 1.4 -7.9 -4.5 -4.2 -6.3 -15.3 -18.7 -18.8 -19.7 2. US (10.0%>>>10.5%) 0.8 4.1 0.6 4.9 3.4 7.2 2.7 13.2 6.0 3. Japan (9.7%>>>9.6%) -5.2 -1.9 0.7 -6.4 -1.0 -0.6 -10.7 5.9 -7.5 4. Eurozone (8.8%>>>9.2%) 2.7 4.7 4.8 10.9 2.0 1.7 -5.2 1.4 -5.0 5. Hong Kong (5.7%>>>5.6%) 4.7 -1.9 -0.1 -1.4 -5.0 -1.0 11.7 -7.8 -12.5 6. Malaysia (5.4%>>>5.7%) 0.7 -4.4 -1.8 1.7 -13.5 -1.8 1.8 -9.5 8.3 PS. ASEAN-9 (26.0%>>>26.1%) 5.0 0.2 -5.4 -0.1 1.1 5.2 9.0 -0.6 -0.7 PS. ASEAN-5 (17.6%>>>17.0%) 2.0 -3.9 -11.0 -4.1 -4.2 4.3 9.0 -2.9 -4.8 PS. ASEAN-4 (8.3%>>>9.1%) 11.8 9.0 7.0 8.8 13.6 6.8 8.9 3.2 6.85. Supply-side indicators in agricultural sector showed improving signs. Agricultural sector as reflected by Agricultural Production Index (API)in January 2015 expanded by 1.2 percent per year and after seasonal adjustment the API expanded by 6.0 percent per month due to the increasing production in rubber and paddy. Furthermore the livestock products increased in pork, chicken, and eggs. Thai Industries Sentiment Index (TISI) in January 2015 was 91.1 points, which was the first decline after the continued improvement throughout the period of Q4/2014. This decline was due to the slowing in domestic purchasing power particularly the purchasing power in agriculture. Furthermore, there was the volatility in economy of trade-partner countries and the trend of Baht appreciation compared to other countries in the region and this affected the competitiveness of entrepreneurs. However, Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) in January 2015 will be formally announced by the Ministry of Industry on 27 February 2015 and the number of inbound tourists in January 2015 has been collected by the Ministry of Tourism and Sports.
Supply Side Indicators 2013 2014 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov. Dec. Jan. Agricultural Production Index (%yoy) -2.2 0.2 3.1 5.4 2.3 -4.3 -4.4 -6.7 1.2 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 8.3 -9.5 0.0 -1.0 -8.9 -3.3 6.0 Manufacturing Production Index -3.3 -4.6 -7.0 -4.8 -3.9 -2.4 -3.7 -0.4 n.a. (%yoy, preliminary) %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -3.3 -2.7 -3.7 2.7 -1.1 3.6 - Number of In-Bound Tourists (%yoy) 18.8 -6.7 -9.0 -15.9 -10.1 7.0 2.5 11.8 n.a. %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -11.1 -2.1 7.6 13.9 -1.9 4.6 -6. Internal externality and external stability remained robust. Headline inflation in January 2015 decreased by -0.4 percent per year, which was the first contraction in 5 years. This was due to the reduction in domestic retail gas prices caused by a decline in crude oil price in world market. In addition, prices in meat, eggs, dairy products and fruits and vegetables declined from last month. Core inflation increased by 1.6 percent per year. Unemployment rate in January 2015 was 1.1 percent of total labor force, or equivalent to 404,000 unemployed persons. Public debt GDP ratio at the end of December 2014 stood at 46.3 percent, still below the Fiscal Sustainability Framework, which was targeted at 60.0 percent. Likewise, external economic stability remained robust and resilient to the risk from volatilities in the global economy , as indicated by the high-level of international reserves at the end of January 2015 at 155.4 billion USD, or approximately 2.7 times of short-term external debt.
Macroeconomic Stability 2013 2014 2014 2015 Indicators Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov. Dec. Jan. Internal Stability Headline Inflation (%yoy) 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.3 0.6 -0.4 Core Inflation (%yoy) 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 Unemployment rate (% of total labor force)0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.1 Public debt (%GDP) 45.7 45.8 46.5 47.1 47.2 46.3 46.1 46.3 n.a. External Stability Current Account Balance (Billion USD) -2.5 14.2 5.5 -0.6 -0.5 9.8 1.7 5.5 n.a. International Reserves (Billion USD) 167.2 157.1 167.5 168.2 161.6 157.1 158.5 157.1 155.4 Forward (Billion USD) 23.0 23.1 23.6 23.7 24.7 23.1 23.7 23.1 22.8Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th