30 March 2015
Monthly Economic Report (February 2015)
"Indicators in February 2015 showed slowing signs from private expenditures and exports. However, Thai economy was still supported by the tourism sector, which showed high-level expansion and by industrial sector, which turned to expand positively. Moreover, Thailand's economic stabilities remained robust."Mr. Krisada Chinavicharana, Director-General of the Fiscal Policy Office, Spokesperson of the Fiscal Policy Office revealed that "Indicators in February 2015 showed slowing signs from private expenditures and exports. However, Thai economy was still supported by the tourism sector, which showed high-level expansion and by industrial sector, which turned to expand positively. Moreover, Thailand's economic stabilities remained robust."
Private consumption in February 2015 showed slowing signs as reflected by the real VAT collection at constant price from domestic consumption base in February 2015, which decreased by -2.4 percent per year decreasing from previous month, when it expanded by 9.5 percent per year. Overall, total real VAT collection at constant price in February 2015 contracted by -2.1 percent per year due to the contraction in real VAT collection from imports, which decreased by -8.4 percent per year. Meanwhile, Consumer Confidence Index in February 2015 continued to decrease to 68.4 points and this was the second consecutive month of contraction. This contraction was caused by the perception of consumers, which still worried about the slow recovery of economy. Moreover, the agricultural prices remained at the low level. However, the imports of consumption goods showed positive sign by expanding 32.5 percent per year. The expansion of imports in consumption goods of this month was due to the increasing imports in household electrical appliances, clothes, shoes, other textiles, fruits and vegetables, products from fruits and vegetables, and watches including parts. Motorcycle sales in February 2015 slightly increased by 0.7 percent per year caused by sales in other regions, which increased by 11.9 percent per year.
Private investment in February 2015 showed slowing signs. For the construction sector, the domestic cement sales in February 2015 contracted by -2.4 percent per year. The real estate tax collection in February 2015 showed the third consecutive month of positive expansion due to people's expectation in the law enforcement of inheritance tax. The real estate tax collection expanded by 10.4 percent per year but decreased by -3.4 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. Meanwhile, investment in machinery sector reflected by commercial car sales contracted by -9.6 percent per year. However, imports of capital goods expanded by 5.9 percent per year.
Fiscal indicators in February 2015 showed that the fiscal policy played a role in supporting Thai economy through a budget deficit. The budget balance in February 2015 showed a deficit of -8.5 billion baht.The net government revenue collection (net of local authorities' allocation) amounted at 149.8 billion baht or increased by 0.5 percent per year. Meanwhile, the total budget disbursement in February 2015 was recorded at 150.4 billion baht or decreased by -13.7 percent per year.
External demand reflected by exports in February 2015 continued to decrease from previous month by declining -6.1 percent per year.This contraction was caused by the declining exports in agricultural products, minerals and fuel, automobile, and agro-industry products. The export markets showing a contraction were China, Japan, Eurozone, and ASEAN-5.
Ms. Kulaya Tantitemit, Executive Director of Macroeconomic Policy Bureau, further elaborated that supply-side indicators in tourism sector showed high-level expansion and this significantly supported the expansion in Thai economy. The preliminary data of February 2015 showed that the number of inbound tourists was recorded at 2.69 million persons or expanded by 29.6 percent per year. Furthermore, for the first 13 days of March 2015, the number of inbound tourists was 1.10 million persons or expanded by 27.6 percent per year. This reflected the strong growth of tourism sector. Manufacturing Production Index (MPI, preliminary) showed the first expansion in 22 months by increasing 3.5 percent per year. However, Thai Industries Sentiment Index (TISI) in February 2015 showed the second consecutive month of decreasing by declining to 88.9 points due to the slowing domestic economy, the slowing expenditures, and the slowing domestic purchasing power particularly the purchasing power in agriculture. Moreover, Agricultural Production Index (API) in February 2015 contracted by -3.8 percent per year or by -1.3 percent per month due to the contraction in production of rice and rubber. Meanwhile, livestock production still expanded .
Internal economic stability remained robust. The unemployment rate in February 2015 was low at 0.8 percent of total labor force or equivalent to 316,000 unemployed persons . Headline inflation declined by -0.5 percent per year due to the decrease in world crude oil price . External economic stability remained robust, as indicated by high-level of international reserves at 156.9 billion USD, or approximately 2.7 times of short-term external debt. These reflected the resilient ability to risk from the volatilities in global economy.
Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th