28 May 2015
Monthly Economic Report (April 2015)
"Economic indicators in April 2015 showed expanding signs from private consumptions as reflected by the real VAT collection. Meanwhile, private investment showed slowing signs and exports slightly contracted. The supply-side economy was supported by the expansion from tourism sector even though agricultural sector continued to contract. Thailand's internal and external economic stabilities remained robust."Mr. Krisada Chinavicharana, Director-General of the Fiscal Policy Office, Spokesperson of the Ministry of Finance, revealed that "Economic indicators in April 2015 showed expanding signs from private consumptions as reflected by the real VAT collection. Meanwhile, private investment showed slowing signs and exports slightly contracted. The supply-side economy was supported by the expansion from tourism sector even though agricultural sector continued to contract. Thailand's internal and external economic stabilities remained robust."
Private consumption in April 2015 showed expanding signs as reflected by the real VAT collection from domestic consumption base in April 2015 , which continued to increase by 12.8 percent per year. Meanwhile, the real VAT collection from imports continued to decrease by -10.9 percent per year. As a consequence, overall real VAT collection expanded by 2.5 percent per year but contracted by -2.6 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. However, the consumption of durable goods showed a contraction as reflected by the motorcycle sales in April 2015, which decreased by -18.4 percent per year or contracted by -31.4 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. This was due to the contraction of motorcycle sales in Bangkok and other regions, which was caused by the high-level contraction of farmers' income. Likewise, the passenger car sales still contracted by -24.7 percent per year. In addition, Consumer Confidence Index showed the fourth consecutive month of contraction by downing to 66.0 points. This decline was caused by the anxiety of an unclear recovery of domestic economy, a contraction of exports, and the low-level prices of agricultural products.
Private investment in April 2015 showed the slowing signs. For the investment in construction sector,cement sales decreased by -3.3 percent per year or decreased by -2.1 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. However, the real estate tax collection in April 2015 continued to increase by 9.4 percent per year or increase by 5.3 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. Meanwhile, for investment in equipment and machinery sector,the commercial car sales in April 2015 contracted by -27.3 percent per year. The imports of capital goods in April 2015 expanded by 5.5 percent per year or increased by 10.6 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. However, the imports of capital goods excluded airplane, ship, and train showed a contraction by decreasing -3.7 percent per year but expanded by 2.4 percent per month after seasonal adjustment.
Fiscal indicators in April 2015 showed that the fiscal policy played a role in supporting Thai economy through a budget deficit. The budget balance in April 2015 showed a deficit of -45.0 billion baht.The net government revenue collection (net of local authorities' allocation) in April 2015 amounted at 168.0 billion baht or increased by 23.2 percent per year. Meanwhile, the total budget disbursement in April 2015 was recorded at 191.5 billion baht or contracted by -2.2 percent per year.
External demand as reflected by exports in April 2015 showed a slight contraction. The exports in April 2015 contracted at a slower pace by -1.7 percent per year but expanded by 2.8 percent per month after seasonal adjustment.This contraction was caused by the declining exports in agro-industry and electrical appliances. The export goods showing an expansion were electronic goods and vehicles. The export markets showing a contraction in April 2015 were Japan, Eurozone, ASEAN-9, and ASEAN-5. Meanwhile, the export markets showing an expansion were U.S.A., Australia, and Vietnam.
Ms. Kulaya Tantitemit, Executive Director of Macroeconomic Policy Bureau, further elaborated that the supply-side economy was supported by the expansion from tourism sector. In April 2015, the number of inbound tourists was recorded at 2.42 million persons or expanded by 25.1 percent per year. This expansion was mainly due to the short-distance tourists from China and Malaysia. In addition, for the first 12 days of May 2015, the number of inbound tourists totaled 860,000 persons or continually expanded by 22.9 percent per year. This reflected the strong growth in tourism sector. However, Agricultural Production Index (API)in April 2015 continued to contract by -13.3 percent per year due to the contraction in rice, rubber, oil palm, and corn for animal feed. In addition, Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) in April 2015 contracted by -5.3 percent per year due to the contraction in radio-and-television industry, hard disk drives, and furniture and jewelry. Likewise, Thai Industries Sentiment Index (TISI) in April 2015 stood at 86.2 points, which was the fourth consecutive month of contraction and also the lowest levels in seven months since October 2014. This was due to the concern of slowing Thai economy and drought, which affected the consumption and spending in agriculture.
Internal economic stability remained favorable. The unemployment rate in April 2015 was low at 0.9 percent of total labor force or equivalent to 324,000 unemployed persons . Meanwhile, headline inflation in April 2015 contracted following the decline in world crude oil prices by -1.0 percent per year. The core inflation was 1.0 percent per year. External economic stability remained robust , as indicated by high-level of international reserves at 161.1 billion USD, or approximately 2.9 times of short-term external debt. These reflected the resilient ability to risk from the volatilities in global economy.
Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th