Attachment
"The Thai economy in April 2017 continued to expand as export sector showed positive expansion and private consumption expanded well partly due to a highly increase in real farmers' income. Meanwhile, the number of inbound foreign tourists expanded well."
1. Private consumption showed improving signs as new motorcycle registrations in April 2017 expanded by 16.3 percent per year and expanded by 2.2 percent per month after seasonal adjustment due to increasing registration in Bangkok which increased by 9.3 percent per year and in other regions which increased by 18.4 percent per year as supported by increasing farmers' income in April 2017 at 30.6 percent per year. Meanwhile, passenger car sales in April 2017 continued to expand for 4 months consecutively at 23.2 percent per year. In addition, Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in April 2017 stood at 65.4 points increasing for 5 months consecutively and highest in 24 months partially due to improvement in export and tourism sector along with increasing prices in agricultural products resulting in an increase in people's spending in many provinces.
Private Consumption 2015 2016 2017 Indicators Q1 Feb Mar Apr YTD Real Value Added Tax Collection 1.3 1.4 3.4 3.4 5.0 -2.6 1.9 (%yoy) %qoq_SA /%mom_SA 2.5 2.6 0.5 -4.1 Passenger Car Sales (%yoy) -19.1 -6.5 38.7 49.8 40.9 23.2 34.6 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 21.1 13.9 2.4 -6.4 Registration of new motorcycles -0.2 5.5 3.2 14.9 3.0 16.3 5.8 (%yoy) %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - 2.1 0.9 0.4 2.2 Imports of consumption goods 2.2 2.2 0.3 1.7 -4.1 -2.8 -0.4 (%yoy) %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 4.6 -1.3 7.0 -10.1 Farmers' real incomes -9.4 -0.2 18.0 19.6 28.1 30.6 20.4 (calculated by FPO) Consumer Confidence Index 64.7 62.2 64.2 64.3 65.1 65.4 64.5
2. Private investment showed a recovery from investment in equipment and machinery as reflected by commercial car sales in April 2017 which continued to expand for 4 months consecutively at 10.1 percent per year and 0.9 percent per month after seasonal adjustment as 1-ton pickup truck showed an expansion of 10.8 percent per year. In addition, imports of capital goods in April 2017 expanded by 8.5 percent per year. Meanwhile, private investment in construction sector as reflected by domestic cement sales in April 2017 contracted by -0.9 percent per year. Construction Materials Price Index (CMI) in April 2017 contracted by -0.3 percent per year. Real estate tax collection in April 2017 contracted by -47.2 percent per year due to high base condition resulting from previous temporary reduction of real estate transfer and mortgage registration fees (effective from 29 October 2015 to 28 April 2016).
Private Investment Indicators 2015 2016 2017
Q1 Feb Mar Apr YTD
Machinery and equipment sector
Commercial car sales (%yoy) -2.6 -2.0 5.3 6.3 5.0 10.1 6.3
%qoq_SA / %mom_SA 10.9 3.9 2.9 0.9
Import volumes of capital goods (%yoy) -2.2 -4.0 1.2 20.4 9.7 8.5 2.9
%qoq_SA / %mom_SA 2.4 41.0 -7.6 -4.0
Construction sector
Cement sales (%yoy) -0.4 -1.6 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.9 0.2
%qoq_SA / %mom_SA 3.3 2.3 -0.8 -2.6
Construction Materials Price Index (CMI) -4.9 -2.7 2.0 2.1 1.6 -0.3 1.4
Real estate tax collection (%yoy) 8.7 -2.5 -8.8 -10.5 -6.4 -47.2 -22.0
%qoq_SA / %mom_SA -1.9 5.1 7.1 -9.3
3. For the fiscal sector, total government expenditure in April 2017 was amounted at 217.2 billion baht and annual budgetary expenditure was disbursed at 210.1 billion baht as a result of current expenditure which was disbursed at 188.2 billion baht and capital expenditure which was disbursed at 21.9 billion baht.
Fiscal Sector FY 2016 Budget FY2017 Indicators framework Q1/FY17 Q2/FY17 Feb Mar Apr FYTD (Billion Baht) of FY2017 Total government 2,807.4 2,990.4 969.1 636.6 157.9 223.6 217.2 1,822.8 expenditure (%y-o-y) 7.9 8.8 -6.4 -1.7 -13.8 -2.9 1.6 Annual budgetary 2,578.9 2,733.0 876.1 576.7 142.8 204.1 210.1 1,662.9 expenditure (%y-o-y) 8.4 8.5 -4.5 3.0 -9.1 -0.6 2.4 Current 2,214.1 2,210.5 783.9 477.8 113.8 153.0 188.2 1,450.0 expenditure (%y-o-y) 5.1 6.0 -6.1 4.5 -14.7 1.1 1.1 Capital 364.9 522.5 92.2 98.8 29.0 51.2 21.9 212.9 expenditure (%y-o-y) 34.4 35.4 3.9 -2.8 13.1 -13.2 13.0 Carry-over budget 228.5 276.0 93.0 59.9 15.2 19.5 7.0 160.0 (previous years)
4.Export values continued to expand well as export values in April 2017 were amounted at 16.9 billion USD continually expanding by 8.5 percent per year. Export commodities showing expansion composed of rubber products, chemicals, fuel, electronics, gold, textile, and electrical appliance. Export markets showing expansion composed of China, Singapore, Vietnam, CLMV, and South Korea. Meanwhile, import values in April 2017 were at 16.8 billion USD continually expanding by 13.4 percent per year from main import goods such as raw materials and semi-finished materials, fuel, capital goods, and gold. As import values slightly recovered, trade balance in April 2017 showed a slight surplus of 0.06 billion USD.
Main trading partners 2015 2016 2017 (16 countries) Q1 Feb Mar Apr YTD (Export shares 15 >> 16 ) Exports to the world (%yoy) -5.8 0.5 4.9 -2.8 9.2 8.5 5.7 1.USA (11.2% >> 11.4%) 0.7 1.8 7.4 5.7 7.1 3.5 6.4 2.China (11.1% >> 11.1%) -5.4 0.3 36.9 31.1 47.6 20.2 32.7 3.Japan (9.4% >> 9.5%) -7.7 2.5 -2.7 -22.6 14.9 3.3 -1.5 4.EU (9.3% >> 9.3%) -5.7 1.0 8.7 5.4 10.2 -1.7 6.3 5.Malaysia (4.8% >> 4.5%) -20.2 -5.5 -3.6 -4.3 -9.3 4.3 -1.7 6.Hong Kong (5.5% >> 5.3%) -6.2 -3.1 6.4 10.7 10.0 0.7 5.2 7.Middle East (4.8% >> 4.2%) -10.0 -12.4 -19.5 -17.6 -21.5 -7.1 -16.9 8.Australia (5.3% >> 5.6%) 5.3 5.4 -0.7 -10.4 8.7 8.8 1.2 9.Singapore (4.1% >> 3.8%) -16.2 -6.2 -20.1 -52.5 -16.0 61.2 -6.2 10.Indonesia (3.7% >> 3.8%) -17.6 3.1 -7.6 -14.2 -4.5 9.5 -3.6 11.Africa (3.2% >> 2.9%) -20.2 -8.8 -0.1 5.4 -3.4 9.1 2.1 12.Vietnam (4.2% >> 4.4%) 13.0 5.8 23.6 35.0 25.6 20.7 22.9 13.Philippines (2.8% >> 3.0%) 2.1 6.7 0.5 -3.5 -3.5 1.5 0.7 14.India (2.5% >> 2.4%) -5.7 -2.7 18.2 23.1 14.9 9.0 15.9 15.South Korea (1.9% >> 1.9%) -9.2 -1.5 26.0 25.4 24.7 25.1 25.8 16.Taiwan (1.6% >> 1.6%) -12.0 -4.8 16.3 15.9 27.1 12.7 15.3 PS.ASEAN-9 (25.7% >> 25.4%) -7.2 -0.9 0.4 -8.8 1.2 13.2 3.2 PS.ASEAN-5 (15.3% >> 15.0%) -15.1 -1.5 -8.4 -23.8 -8.6 17.2 -2.9 PS.Indochina-4 (10.4% >> 10.3%) 7.7 -0.1 15.5 22.2 18.1 7.3 13.5
5. Supply-side indicators were supported by agricultural sector as Agricultural Product Index in April 2017 continued to expand by 27.4 percent per year and expanded by 3.3 percent per month after seasonal adjustment from most products such as main crop production which increased by 42.4 percent per year from rubber product, tapioca, corn, and fruits, livestock which increased by 1.7 percent per year, and fishery which increased by 16.5 percent per year. Likewise, Agricultural Price Index continued to expand by 2.8 percent per year from increasing prices in main crop and fishery. For the service sector,the number of inbound foreign tourists in April 2017 was recorded at 2.8 million persons expanding continually by 7.0 percent per year and expanded by 3.3 percent per month after seasonal adjustment as tourists from Hong Kong, Russia, Malaysia, and South Korea expanded well. Meanwhile, Thai Industries Sentiment Index (TISI) in April 2017 stood at 86.4 points decreasing from previous month due to long holidays in April 2017 (Thai New Year) which affected production including an anxiety in higher production costs.
Supply Side Indicators 2015 2026 2017
Q1 Feb Mar Apr YTD
Agricultural Production Index -4.4 -2.1 6.7 8.0 19.5 27.4 10.5
(%yoy)
%qoq_SA / %mom_SA -0.2 6.1 3.4 3.3
Thai Industries Sentiment Index 85.8 85.9 87.0 86.2 87.5 86.4 86.8
(TISI)(level)
Number of Inbound Foreign 20.6 8.9 1.7 -3.2 2.0 7.0 2.9
Tourists (%yoy)
%qoq_SA / %mom_SA 13.5 -4.8 4.8 3.3
6. Internal economic stabilities remained favourable and external economic stabilities remained robust. Headline inflation in April 2017 was 0.4 percent per year due to domestic retail oil prices which increased from crude oil prices in world market, increasing prices in finished food, and rental rate in central region. However, in general, prices food and non-alcohol drink tended to decrease. Meanwhile, core inflation stood at 0.5 percent per year. Unemployment rate in April 2017 was 1.2 percent of total labor force. Public debt to GDP at the end of March 2016 stood at 42.3 percent to GDP, lower than the Fiscal Sustainability Framework of 60 percent to GDP. External stabilities were stable and reflected the resilient ability to risk from the volatilities in global economy as the international reserves at the end of April 2017 were high at 184.5 billion USD, or approximately 3.4 times of short-term external debt.
Macroeconomic Stability 2015 2016 2017 Indicators Q1 Feb Mar Apr YTD Internal Stability Headline Inflation (%yoy) -0.9 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.4 1.0 Core Inflation (%yoy) 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 Unemployment rate (% of total 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 labor force) Public debt (% of GDP) 43.9 41.2 42.3 42.0 42.3 - 42.3 External Stability Current Account Balance (Billion 32.1 46.4 13.3 5.7 2.6 - 5.7 USD) International Reserves Position 156.5 171.9 180.9 183.0 180.9 184.5 184.5 (Billion USD) Net Forward (Billion USD) 11.7 25.8 26.6 22.9 26.6 27.4 27.4 International reserves to short 3.0 3.4 - 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.3 term external debt (times)
Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th