Mr. Pornchai Thiraveja, Financial Policy Advisor and Spokesperson of the Fiscal Policy Office and Mr. Warotai Kosolpisitkul, Deputy Director-General of the Fiscal Policy Office Acting Fiscal Policy Advisor revealed the economic report in November 2017 that "The Thai economy in November 2017 expanded robustly particularly in the demand side as exports of goods, private consumption in durable goods, and private investment showed accelerating expansion and were supported from public expenditures which expanded well. Meanwhile, supply side was mainly driven by the number of inbound foreign tourists which continued to grow at high rate and Thai Industries Sentiment Index (TISI) showed improving sign" The details were summarized as follows:
Economic indicators on private consumption expenditures expanded as shown by real VAT collection in November 2017 which continued to grow by 1.6 percent per year. Likewise, passenger car sales in November 2017 expanded for 11 th consecutive month by 34.9 percent per year and 5.7 per month after seasonal adjustment. Imports of consumers' goods in November 2017 expanded for 7 th consecutive month at 11.9 percent per year and 4.4 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. Meanwhile, new motorcycle registration continued to expand at 10.7 percent per year and 8.8 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. Farmers' real income in November 2017 contracted by -6.0 percent per year. In addition, Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in November 2017 stood at 65.2 points improving for 4 th consecutive month reported the highest level in 7 months due to the expansion of goods exports and tourism sector including stimulus economic measures which supported the economy in the second half of the year.
Economic indicators on private investment expanded at accelerating pace in both equipment and machinery sector and construction sector.Imports of capital goods in November 2017 continued to expand by 10.1 percent per year and commercial car sales in November 2017 continued to expand by 12.5 percent per year supported by 1-ton pickup truck sales. For private investment in construction sector,domestic cement sales in November 2017 turned to show the highest expansion in 2017 at 6.4 percent per year and 8.7 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. Meanwhile, real estate tax collection in November 2017 expanded by 1.2 percent per year and construction Materials Price Index (CMI) expanded by 3.6 percent per year.
Export values expanded well for 9th consecutive month and showed the highest record in 2017. Export values in November 2017 continued to expand by 13.4 percent per year, and export commodities showing expansion composed of vehicles and parts, agriculture products, electronics, chemicals and rubber products. Exporting markets showing expansion composed of ASEAN-9, ASEAN-5, China, U.S.A., and Australia. Meanwhile, import values in November 2017 expanded by 13.7 percent per year and the trade balance in November 2017 showed a surplus of 1.8 billion USD.
Supply-side indicators were supported by the number of inbound foreign tourists in November 2017 which expanded highly at 3.02 million persons expanding by 23.2 percent per year. The expansion came from tourists from China, Korea, Russia, Laos Cambodia, and India. Agricultural Product Index (API) in November 2017 contracted at deceleration pace by -0.6 percent per year due to the contraction in fishery sector and livestock sector. In addition, Thai Industries Sentiment Index (TISI) in November 2017 stood at 87.0 points improving from last month due to an increase in purchasing orders and total sales which was a result of Shopping Tax Break for Year End 2017, expenditures through social welfare card under low-income earner registration which stimulated private consumption and expenditures, sale promotion of entrepreneurs during Shopping Tax Break period and the increasing production of entrepreneurs during New Year Festival.
Internal economic stabilities remained favourable and external economic stability remained robust.Headline and core inflation in November 2017 were at 0.99 and 0.61 percent per year, respectively. Unemployment rate in November 2017 was at 1.1 percent of total labor force. Meanwhile, public debt to GDP at the end of October 2017 stood at 41.75 percent to GDP, lower than the Fiscal Sustainability Framework of 60 percent to GDP. External economic stability remained robust reflecting the resilient ability to risk from the volatilities in global economy as the international reserves at the end of November 2017 were high at 203.1 billion USD, approximately 3.5 times of shortterm external debt.
See Attachment for more details.
Attachment
1. Economic indicators on private consumption expenditures expanded as shown by real VAT collection in November 2017 which continued to grow by 1.6 percent per year. Likewise, passenger car sales in November 2017 expanded for 11 th consecutive month by 34.9 percent per year and 5.7 per month after seasonal adjustment due to the release of cars with new model. Imports of consumers' goods in November 2017 expanded for 7 th consecutive month at 11.9 percent per year and 4.4 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. Meanwhile, new motorcycle registration continued to expand at 10.7 percent per year and 8.8 percent per month after seasonal adjustment due to the expansion in Bangkok and other regions which increased by 15.9 and 9.2 percent per year, respectively. Farmers' real income in November 2017 contracted by -6.0 percent per year. In addition, Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in November 2017 stood at 65.2 points improving for 4 th consecutive month reported the highest level in 7 months due to the expansion of goods exports and tourism sector including stimulus economic measures which supported the economy in the second half of the year. In addition, the anxiety of consumers in politic situation was eased as future politic situation is likely to be more stable.
2. Economic indicators on private investment expanded at accelerating pace in both equipment and machinery sector and construction sector.Imports of capital goods in November 2017 continued to expand by 10.1 percent per year and 5.5 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. Meanwhile, commercial car sales in November 2017 continued to expand by 12.5 percent per year due to 1-ton pickup truck sales which expanded by 11.0 percent per year. For private investment in construction sector,domestic cement sales in November 2017 turned to show the highest expansion in 2017 at 6.4 percent per year and 8.7 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. Meanwhile, real estate tax collection in November 2017 expanded by 1.2 percent per year and construction Materials Price Index (CMI) in November 2017 expanded by 3.6 percent per year due to prices in steel and steel products which increased by 14.7 percent per year.
3. For the fiscal sector, total government expenditure in November 2017 was disbursed at 250.2 billion baht and annual budgetary expenditure was disbursed at 221.2 billion baht as a result of current expenditure which was disbursed at 202.1 billion baht, capital expenditure which was disbursed at 19.1 billion baht, and the carry-over budget which was disbursed at 29.0 billion baht.
4.External demand as reflected by exports of goods continued to expand highly for 9 th consecutive month. Export values in November 2017 were amounted at 21.4 billion USD highly expanding by 13.4 percent per year or 6.0 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. Export commodities showing expansion composed of vehicles and parts, agriculture products, electronics, chemicals and rubber products. Exporting markets showing expansion composed of ASEAN-9, ASEAN-5, China, U.S.A., and Australia. Meanwhile, import values in November 2017 were amounted at 19.7 billion USD expanding by 13.7 percent per year. Import goods showing expansion composed of raw material, semi-finished capital goods, fuel, and consumption goods. As such the export values were greater than import values, and the trade balance in November 2017 showed a surplus of 1.8 billion USD.
5. Supply-side indicators were supported by the tourism sector as the number of inbound foreign tourists in November 2017 was recorded at 3.02 million persons expanding by 23.2 percent per year but contracted by -1.4 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. As a consequence, the revenue from foreign tourism was amounted at 159 billion baht increasing by 24.8 percent per year. The expansion came from tourists from China, Korea, Russia, Laos and India, whereas tourists from Malaysia showed a contraction. Agricultural Product Index (API) in November 2017 contracted at deceleration pace by -0.6 percent per year due to the contraction in fishery sector and livestock sector which decreased by -21.5 and -7.0 percent per year, respectively, while main crops showed an expansion of 0.9 percent per year. Agricultural Price Index in November 2017 contracted by -4.9 percent per year as swine price in livestock contracted due to over-supply. In addition, palm oil prices decelerated due to the slowdown trade and over oil stock. Likewise, rubber prices decreased as over-supply in the market and slowdown trade. In addition, Thai Industries Sentiment Index (TISI) in November 2017 stood at 87.0 points improving from last month due to an increase in purchasing orders and total sales which was a result of Shopping Tax Break for Year End 2017, expenditures through social welfare card under low-income earner registration which stimulated private consumption and expenditures, sale promotion of entrepreneurs during Shopping Tax Break period and the increasing production of entrepreneurs during New Year Festival.
6. Internal economic stabilities remained favourable and external economic stability remained robust.Headline inflation in November 2017 was 0.99 percent per year increasing from last month due to an increase of energy prices which were adjusted to follow world prices and excise tax restructuring which affected cigarettes prices. Meanwhile, core inflation in November 2017 was at 0.61 percent per year. Unemployment rate in November 2017 was at 1.1 percent of total labor force. Meanwhile, public debt to GDP at the end of October 2017 stood at 41.7 percent to GDP, lower than the Fiscal Sustainability Framework of 60 percent to GDP. External economic stability remained robust reflecting the resilient ability to risk from the volatilities in global economy as the international reserves at the end of November 2017 were high at 203.1 billion USD, approximately 3.5 times of short-term external debt.
Number 55/2017
28 December 2017
Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th