5. Economic Management for 2011
Thailand’s economy in 2011 is expected to expand continuously from last year by the impetus of the strong growth in 2010 as well as the stabilized expansion of the global economy. However, Thai economy in 2011 is likely to face the inflationary pressure, rising oil price, the fluctuation of capital flows, and the natural disaster. Meanwhile, the development of tourism and investment sectors depends on a condition of the peaceful domestic political situation. Thus, the economic management for 2011 should emphasize the following issues:
(1) Manage the problem of rising commodity prices since there is a tendency of higher costs of production due to an increase in prices of oil and agricultural products. Monitoring system of production trend and stock management of key products must be employed consistently.
(2) Implementation of balanced monetary and exchange rate policy that accommodate both economic growth and stability. This would prepare the economy for the uncertainty in global economic, financial market and capital flow .
(3) Accelerate budget disbursement and major public infrastructure investment in order to improve long run economic potential.
(4) Improve the water management for both irrigation and consumption to alleviate the impact of climate change.
(5) Urgently tackle labor shortage in production sector, which could affect the foreign investors’ decisions.
(6) Creating harmony and solidarity among Thai people and resolve border political conflicts in order to restore the country’s image and confidence of foreign tourists and investors.
Economic projection of 2011
--------Actual Data--------- Projection 2011F
2008 2009 2010 22 Nov. 10 21 Feb. 11
GDP (at current prices: Bil. Bht) 9,080.5 9,041.6 10,103.0 10,777.3 10,840.5
GDP per capita (Bht per year) 136,585 135,144 150,090 159,435 160,370
GDP (at current prices: Bil. USD) 272.2 263.3 317.7 365.3 361.4
GDP per capita (USD per year) 4,093.9 3,936.0 4,719.8 5,404.6 5,345.7
GDP Growth (at constant prices, %) 2.5 -2.3 7.8 3.5 - 4.5 3.5 — 4.5
Investment (at constant prices, %) 1.2 -9.2 9.4 8.0 7.3
Private (at constant prices, %) 3.2 -13.1 13.8 9.8 8.5
Public (at constant prices, %) -4.7 2.7 -2.2 2.5 3.5
Consumption (at constant prices, %) 2.9 0.1 5.0 4.1 3.9
Private (at constant prices, %) 2.9 -1.1 4.8 4.3 4.0
Public (at constant prices, %) 3.2 7.5 6.0 2.7 3.2
Export volume of goods & services (%) 5.1 -12.5 14.7 6.0 6.3
Export value of goods (Bil. USD) 175.2 150.7 193.7 211.0 217.9
Growth rate (%) 15.9 -14.0 28.5 11.7 12.5
Growth rate (Volume, %) 6.0 -13.6 17.3 6.2 6.8
Import volume of goods & services (%) 8.9 -21.5 21.5 8.0 8.1
Import value of goods (Bil. USD) 175.6 131.4 179.6 199.0 205.8
Growth rate (%) 26.8 -25.2 36.8 13.4 14.6
Growth rate (Volume, %) 8.9 -23.1 26.5 7.9 8.1
Trade balance (Bil. USD) -0.4 19.4 14.0 12.0 12.1
Current account balance (Bil. USD) 1/ 2.2 21.9 14.8 12.0 12.6
Current account to GDP (%) 0.8 8.3 4.6 3.3 3.5
Inflation (%)
CPI 5.5 -0.8 3.3 2.5 - 3.5 2.8 - 3.8
GDP Deflator 3.9 1.9 3.7 2.5 - 3.5 2.8 - 3.8
Source: Office of National Economic and Social Development Board, February 21st, 2011
Note: 1/ Reinvested earnings has been recorded as part of FDI in Financial account, and its contra entry recorded as income on equity in current account.
--National Economic and Social Development Board--