กรุงเทพฯ--31 มี.ค.--Standard & Poor's
Following a year of record-setting highs in terms of global corporate default statistics, 2010 provided the markets with a noticeable reversal, according to the default studies published today by Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income Research.
"In 2010, 81 global corporate issuers defaulted, down from the record high of 265 in 2009. None of the 81 defaulters began the year rated investment grade," said Diane Vazza, head of Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income Research. "The debt amount affected by these defaults fell to $95.7 billion, also considerably lower than in 2009."
In addition, although distressed exchanges still featured prominently in 2010 as a default type, accounting for 28.4% of defaults globally, missed interest or principal payments claimed a third of the total, according to the article, titled "2010 Annual Global Corporate Default Study And Rating Transitions."
Along with a decline in the number of defaults, credit stability--and even improvement--increased in 2010. There were 1.36 upgrades for every downgrade, while the proportion of unchanged ratings reached 72.7%, a six-year high. Also, the average number of notches recorded among downgrades fell in 2010 to 1.52 from 1.76 the previous year.
"At the end of December 2010, speculative-grade default rates fell to 3.27% in the U.S., compared with 1.03% in Europe, 1.23% in the emerging markets, and 7.82% in an assorted grouping of other developed markets," said Ms. Vazza. "In all regions, default rates in 2010 fell relative to 2009. When including all rated entities, the global default rate fell to 1.14% in 2010 from 4.04% a year earlier." For more details about regional defaults and rating transitions, see "2010 Annual U.S. Corporate Default Study And Rating Transitions," "2010 Annual European Corporate Default Study And Rating Transitions," and "2010 Annual Asian Corporate Default Study And Rating Transitions," all published today.
As the incidence of default fell dramatically compared with the heights of the credit crisis in 2009, the one-year Gini ratio--a key measure of the relative ability of ratings to differentiate risk--rose for a third consecutive year, to 90.1% in 2010. This is the fourth-highest level in the 30-year history of the database and higher than the one-year average of 84%.
All of Standard & Poor's default studies have found a clear correlation between ratings and defaults: The higher the rating, the lower the observed frequency of default, and vice versa. Over each time span, lower ratings correspond to higher default rates. This is also true when the data are broken out separately by rating or by region.
For details about the global corporate defaulters in 2010, see "2010 Default Synopses," also published today.
The reports are available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal at www.globalcreditportal.com. If you are not a RatingsDirect subscriber, you may purchase copies of these reports by calling (1) 212-438-7280 or sending an e-mail to
[email protected]. Ratings information can also be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site by using the Ratings search box located in the left column at www.standardandpoors.com. Members of the media may request copies of these reports by contacting the media representative provided.
Media Contact:
Mimi Barker, New York (1) 212-438-5054,
[email protected]
Analyst Contacts:
Diane Vazza, New York (1) 212-438-2760