SCB WEALTH recently hosted a seminar session under the "Golden Portfolio Defense in a Volatile Era: Gold as the Anchor of Investment Portfolios in Times of Turbulence" topic, as part of the "SCB WEALTH : Holistic Wealth Forum 2025 ,Under the theme "Storm Shift". Leading experts in gold and financial markets were invited to share in-depth perspectives on gold price trends and the outlook for the Thai baht as strategic information for portfolio planning to enhance wealth in 2026.
Hua Seng Heng assessed that gold prices in 2026 still have potential to rise amid global uncertainties, with prices possibly reaching as high as USD 4,700. Meanwhile, SCB Financial Markets (SCBFM) stated that the baht will remain volatile next year, expected to move within the range of 33-34 baht per U.S. dollar. Investors are advised to diversify risks globally and consider opening foreign currency deposit (FCD) accounts to manage currencies more effectively.
According to Mr. Thanarat Pasawongse, Chief Executive Officer of Hua Seng Heng Group, international gold prices in 2025 reached an all-time high of USD 4,381 per troy ounce, delivering a return of 67% compared to the end of 2024 the highest level in 46 years. Meanwhile, domestic gold prices in Thailand peaked at THB 67,400, rising 59%. For the outlook by the end of this year, global gold prices are expected to hover around USD 4,200 per troy ounce. Looking ahead to 2026, although gold prices are already at elevated levels, there remain supporting factors for further increases. However, returns may not be as high as in 2025, with global gold prices potentially reaching USD 4,700 per troy ounce by year-end.
According to perspectives from 11 leading global financial institutions, gold prices in 2026 could rise to USD 4,500-5,000 per ounce if three conditions occur simultaneously: uncertainty over trade tariff retaliation measures, increased gold purchases by central banks to boost reserves, and political interference in the U.S. Federal Reserve, which could affect U.S. interest rate trends. Two additional factors also support gold prices: the surging U.S. public debt and the global push toward reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar (de-dollarization).Gold remains an asset that helps diversify risk in investment portfolios during times of economic volatility. However, excessive accumulation of gold may lead to missed opportunities in other assets. Although gold has delivered exceptionally high returns this year, it is fundamentally a long-term portfolio enhancer, not an asset that yields over 60% annually every year. Therefore, investors are advised not to rush into gold at elevated prices, but rather to gradually accumulate when prices correct to the range of USD 3,700-3,800 per troy ounce."Investors should not increase gold allocations excessively, as this may cause missed opportunities in other assets. Nor should they chase gold at high prices. The USD 3,700-3,800 per ounce range is considered appropriate for gradual accumulation." Mr. Pasawongse concluded.
Gold consumption among Thai investors has shifted significantly. More investors are now purchasing gold bars for savings, while demand for gold jewelry has declined. The average age of gold investors has also fallen to 20-30 years, compared to the past when most began investing at 40 or older, after accumulating sufficient savings to buy gold bars.
Thanks to easier access to diverse gold investment platforms, investors today can choose options such as gold ETFs through electronic channels that enable real-time trading. This convenience has accelerated trading activities, in turn contributing to greater volatility in gold prices.
Mr. Patrick Poulier, Executive Vice President and Head of Financial Markets at SCB (SCB FM), stated that amid economic slowdown and declining interest rates, gold often delivers strong returns, as it serves as an asset that hedges against inflation. Meanwhile, global gold prices and the Thai baht exhibit a high positive correlation: when gold prices rise, the baht tends to appreciate. This dynamic contributes to differences in investment returns when gold is purchased in Thai baht compared to U.S. dollars.
For the remainder of this year, the Thai baht is expected to appreciate slightly, supported by 1) its historical tendency to strengthen toward year-end 2) the likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver one more rate cut in December and 3) short-term strength in regional currencies, which could further bolster the baht.Looking ahead to 2026, however, the baht is expected to weaken. Key drivers include1) a potentially stronger U.S. Dollar Index amid continued AI-driven investment momentum that supports U.S. economic growth and attracts capital inflows 2) signs of a softer Thai economic outlook along with increased political uncertainty next year and 3) a slower pace of gold price appreciation, with gold's impact on the baht likely diminishing. Overall, the baht is projected to trade in the 33.00-34.00 range against the U.S. dollar by the end of 2026.
Thai investors continue to focus primarily on domestic investments (home bias), with only about 10% of total assets allocated abroad, compared to the global average of more than 20%. It is therefore recommended that portfolios be diversified further into global assets. This is particularly relevant for investors seeking exposure to gold while managing foreign exchange risk. Opening a foreign currency deposit (FCD) account is another option that provides flexibility in currency management.
As of June 2025, the value of deposits in Thai FCD accounts had increased significantly compared to 2019, with the number of accounts rising from 120,000 to 7.2 million.
Note: Data from then SCB WEALTH: HOLISTIC WEALTH FORUM 2025, held on November 12, 2025. Figures are subject to change over time, and data users should exercise caution when making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
- Investment involves risk. Investors should understand the nature of the product, conditions of returns, and associated risks, and seek additional advice from business operators before making investment decisions.
- Since the fund does not fully hedge against foreign exchange risk, investors may incur losses or gains from exchange rates and may receive a redemption value lower than their initial investment.