กรุงเทพฯ--19 มี.ค.--Dhurakij Pundit University
Krungthep Turakijin collaboration with Dhurakij Pundit University Research Center (DPURC) conducted a survey of 417 CEOs. The survey asked these CEOs about their views on the Thai economic outlook, business performance as well as important factors affecting their business. The survey was carried out from 27thFebruaryto 10thMarch 2014.
The economic index has remained negative for eight consecutive months. February’s index falls to -39; the index is expected to remain negative in March 2014, with the value being -41. The fall of this index has been driven mainly by the care-taker government’s declaration of state of emergency, continued slowdown of the economy as well as overall political uncertainty.
Four business performance sentiment indices- revenue, cost, liquidity and employment point to a more pessimistic time ahead. February’s revenue index is -24; the index is expected to fall further to -26 in March. Cost index falls to 26 in February and is expected to rise to 29 in March. The fact that cost index remained positive implies that cost would continue to rise, putting more pressure on liquidity.This is confirmed by the fact that liquidity index remains negative at -10 in February; the index is expected to fall to -14 in March. Continuous fall of the index indicates that businesses are becoming more vulnerable to an unexpected shock. Employment indexis -2 in Februaryand is expected to fall slightly to -4 in March.
The five most important factors affecting business performances in February-March are as follows: care-taker government’s declaration of state of emergency(4.5 points on a scale of 5); condition of the Thai economy (4.3 points); insufficient access to capital to finance short-run liquidity (3.8 points);world economy (3.7 points) and reduced demand (3.5 points).
Latest statistics on incoming international tourisms in January shows that the growth in numbers of international tourists is around 0.6%. This is a clear indication of the effect the care-taker government’s declaration of state of emergency. Even though the declaration as in effect on 22nd January, the possibility of that such declaration will be in place was known internationally since late December 2013. The declaration also adversely effect the mood of domestic tourists was well as overall business climate as suggested by negative revenue and liquidity indices. For businesses, negative and falling liquidity index means businesses will have a hard time just to stay afloat, not to mention ability to be competitive in both short-run and long-run.