Bangkok--9 Apr--KASIKORNBANK
KASIKORNBANK (KBank) held a seminar titled "The Symbol of Your Visionary: Keep Up with the Economy and Be Investment Leader in 2018", wherein the impacts of global economy on Thailand's trade and investment were analyzed. The panelists expected that the Thai economy would continue to grow, with key supporters being exports, tourism and public investment. Meanwhile, various external risks will likely prevail, for example, trade protectionism, funds movements and interest rate hikes of key central banks.
Mr. Predee Daochai, KBank President, said that the overall Thai economy in 2018 is projected to gain traction further, with growth topping the 3.9 percent recorded in 2017, driven mainly by exports and tourism. Public investment will also be a plus to the economy after certain mega-projects were delayed from 2017. The economy is expected to show stable growth as planned provided that the government gradually pushes for the enactment of laws related to the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) and general elections, which will be a prelude for rising FDI inflows. Nonetheless, the economic recovery will remain challenged by several downsides, especially external factors which are beyond our control. Three major trends in 2018 are as follows.
- Trade protectionism trend: Under the leadership of President Donald Trump, the US administration has, from early this year, initiated a string of trade measures, reasoning that they ฟare necessary to protect domestic manufacturing and national security of the US. The latest in the series is the trade measures against intellectual property violation, which have sent an impact at the levels of both product lists and its trade partners. One of the targets is China, which recorded trade surplus with the US at the tune of USD375 billion in 2017.
- International funds movements: While waiting for clarification on the above issue, the greenback may weaken, running counter to Asian and Thai currencies which are strengthened by capital inflows. But before such worry eases, the market may shift more weight to other important factors, such as the US Federal Reserve's signals to increase the interest rate. These circumstances may accelerate the pace of funds movements, resulting in volatilities and fluctuations of currencies and asset values worldwide during the year.
- Interest rate uptrend of major countries: In particular, close attention is paid to the US as the market waits to see whether there will be more than three rate hikes in 2018. Such decision will impact returns in the international and Thai financial markets.