Bangkok--28 Jan--Standard & Poor's Standard & Poor's has published its "Global Bond Markets' Weakest Links And Monthly Default Rates (Premium)" report, which states that the 12-month trailing global corporate speculative-grade bond default rate ended 2007 at 0.86%, near its all-time historical low. "Globally 22 defaults were recorded in 2007 across all ratings, affecting debt worth $8.1 billion," said Diane Vazza, head of Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income Research Group. This is the lowest default count in 11 years. "The default count was suppressed in 2007 due to low refunding needs and structural concessions that avert payment default even as corporate credit risks build momentum," Ms. Vazza added. We expect the U.S. speculative-grade default rate trajectory to escalate in the next several quarters based on the cumulative impact of the changes in the credit-pricing environment, an increase in refunding needs, and a slowing economy. Rising volatility in the credit markets and escalating risk of recession contribute to substantial variability around the default forecast. Indeed, the surprise move by the Federal Reserve on Jan. 22 to cut interest rates by 75 basis points between meetings is indicative of the accelerating risk of recession. Our 12-month forward (December 2008) speculative-grade default rate forecast is 3.4% in the U.S., much higher than the current level but still lower than the 4.4% historical average. A full review of the default forecast will be completed in February. The report is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect, the real-time Web-based source for Standard & Poor's credit ratings, research, and risk analysis, at www.ratingsdirect.com. If you are not a RatingsDirect subscriber, you may purchase a copy of the report by calling (1) 212-438-9823 or sending an e-mail to [email protected]. Ratings information can also be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com; under Credit Ratings in the left navigation bar, select Find a Rating, then Credit Ratings Search. Members of the media may request a copy of this report by contacting the media representative provided. Media Contact: Mimi Barker, New York (1) 212-438-5054, [email protected] Analyst Contact: Diane Vazza, New York (1) 212-438-2760 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE:MHP), is the world's foremost provider of financial market intelligence, including independent credit ratings, indices, risk evaluation, investment research and data. With approximately 8,500 employees, including wholly owned affiliates, located in 21 countries, Standard & Poor's is an essential part of the world's financial infrastructure and has played a leading role for more than 140 years in providing investors with the independent benchmarks they need to feel more confident about their investment and financial decisions. For more information, visit http://www.standardandpoors.com. Key Contacts: Americas Media Relations: (1) 212-438-6667 media_ [email protected] Americas Customer Service: (1) 212-438-7280 [email protected]