Bangkok--9 May--UN The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) of Myanmar started to issue forecasts on cyclone Nargis as of 27 April, several days ahead of the landfall, on the basis of information provided through the WMO network, according to information the Organization received today from its Permanent Representative of Myanmar, Mr Tun Lwin, Director-general of DMH. However, the storm surge was the major cause of the disaster as the cyclone hit the most populous and low-lying area and the cyclone maintained its strength (category 2 or above) and moved quickly. The storm surge affected not only the coastal area but also inland (about 30-40 km). A problem was the lack of a radar network to monitor the storm. The DMH, which recently benefited from an upgrading of the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) through WMO, received accurate information on the cyclone from several WMO centres in particular the WMO Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) New Delhi. DMH received satellite images from India and the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Specialized Meteorological Centre (Singapore) through the Internet. Warnings were provided to authorities as of 29 April. A press briefing was given to national media on 1 May and newspaper headlines on 2 May, the day of the landfall, focused on the cyclone. The New Delhi Office of the India Meteorological Department started to issue RSMC advisories at 00 UTC every 3 hours on 27 April, which continued until 06 UTC on 3 May. The last advisory said “the status of Nargis is a Severe Cyclonic Storm (50 knots) about 90 km south-west of Yangon”. The first forecast of landfall was issued at 06UTC on 1 May (36 hours in advance of the landfall), which said that “Nargis will cross the Myanmar coast between 16 to 18 degrees North by the night of 2 May”. At 21 UTC of 1 May, it forecast that “the maximum wind speed at landfall is expected to be 90 knots”. At 09 UTC on 2 May, the forecast was that “Nargis will cross near 16 degree North by 12 UTC with 90 knots wind speed”.WMO cyclone warning services The New Delhi Office of the India Meteorological Department has been designated as the WMO Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre for Tropical Cyclones. It is one of the five such centres recognized by WMO under a global system for monitoring tropical cyclones. As an international commitment, through the WMO/Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) Panel on Tropical Cyclones, tropical cyclone advisories are issued by RSMC New Delhi to the Panel member countries during tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The advisory messages are issued four to eight times a day. The ESCAP Panel countries are Thailand, Myanmar, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Oman. The cyclone warnings are issued in two stages. The first stage warning known as “Cyclone Alert” is issued 48 hours in advance of the expected commencement of adverse weather over coastal areas. The second stage warning known as “Cyclone Warning” is issued 24 hours in advance. A “Pre-cyclone Watch” may be instituted prior to the cyclone alert and a post-landfall outlook is issued for areas in the interior which may be affected by the cyclone as it continues to move inland and dissipate. Cyclone warnings are disseminated through radio, television, print media, telephones, fax, telex, telegrams and police wireless network. A specially designed Cyclone Warning Dissemination System which works via the Indian INSAT satellite provides area-specific service even when there is a failure of conventional communication channels. Warnings are issued for the general public, fishermen, farmers and different categories of users such as central and state government officials responsible for disaster mitigation and relief, industrial and other establishments located in the coastal areas, railways, aviation, communications and power authorities. The WMO Website carries tropical cyclone information at the following url: http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/Nargis reinforces the case for multihazard early warning systems Nargis was the first tropical cyclone making landfall in Myanmar for 40 years. Such a rare, hazard shows the need for a multi-hazard approach to early warning systems. WMO, in collaboration with other UN agencies and international partners, has led initiatives in that direction, following the tsunami disaster of 2004. WMO, in collaboration with its partners, has initiated pilot projects to demonstrate the benefits of a multi-hazard approach to early warning systems, on the basis of which it will prepare guidelines for governments for the establishment and sustainability of these systems in a more efficient and cost-effective manner Effective early warning systems involve: (i) observing, monitoring and forecasting the hazards; (ii) development of authoritative and understandable warning messages that include hazard and risk information; (iii) timely dissemination of warnings to authorities and those at risk; and (iv) emergency preparedness and response measures at community level based on warning information. These capacities must be supported by clear national and local emergency plans and legislation which clearly lay out the roles and responsibilities of the different agencies in the operational warning system. Although the development and sustainability of effective end-to-end early warning systems are resource-intensive, posing significant challenges, particularly in the developing and least developed countries, they are highly cost-effective. For more information please contact: Carine Richard-Van Maele, Chief, Communications and Public Affairs, WMO. Office tel:+41 (0)22 730 83 15. Mobile: +41 (0)79 406 47 30. E-mail: Paul Garwood, Press Officer, Communications and Public Affairs, WMO. Tel: +41 (0)22 730 84 17 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.wmo.int