Bangkok--24 Oct--UNISBKK
The United Nations and the World Bank report that most countries are planning for an influenza pandemic, but officials worry that many plans have not been tested and may well fail once the next influenza pandemic starts. Coming on the heels of a World Bank study suggesting that the economic cost of a pandemic could top a staggering $3 trillion, this continuing lack of preparedness remains a cause for concern. The UN calls for more concerted efforts by all nations to avert the massive economic, social and political crisis that may be induced by the next influenza pandemic.
The UN System is coordinating an effort among governments, donors, international agencies and corporations to stop the spread of avian influenza, while also preparing for a fast-spreading human influenza pandemic. Such pandemics have affected our world three times in the past century.
Awareness of pandemic threat is widespread
The World Bank indicates that a pandemic of influenza of moderate severity could reduce global gross domestic product by 2.0 per cent, while a severe flu pandemic would drop global GDP by nearly five percentage points, or more than $3 trillion. Even a mild flu pandemic might kill 1.4 million people worldwide, while the death toll caused by a severe global outbreak could be 70 million.
Global recognition of the need to prepare for an influenza pandemic is indicated by the existence of contingency planning in nearly all of the 148 countries that provided data for the October 2008 joint report by the United Nations and the World Bank “Responses to Avian Influenza and State of Pandemic Readiness”, out today .
The report notes that a pandemic will impact all aspects of daily life — ranging from garbage removal to public transportation, utility services, banking and commerce, shopping and jobs. But pandemic planning is mostly limited to the health sector: gaps remain in areas other than the health.
During the last year, promising progress has been made as a result of efforts by Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (with the support of their International Federation), public institutions, businesses, civil society and community groups, media organizations and faith groups.
“Considering that pandemic preparedness was largely unaddressed by the world’s nations three years ago, the widespread awareness and action seen today is a major achievement,” Dr. David Nabarro, UN System Influenza Coordinator, said. “But more needs to be done to ensure that we are ready for this kind of major global crisis”.
Dr. Nabarro highlighted the need for countries to work better together in preparing for continued functioning of economic, social and political systems, as well as basic health services, in the event of an influenza pandemic.
Dr Nabarro was speaking in advance of a key International Ministerial Conference on Avian and Pandemic Influenza which will take place in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt from 24-26 October. The conference is hosted by the Government of Egypt and co-hosted by the International Partnership on Avian and Pandemic Influenza (launched by the US Government in September 2005) and by the European Commission. It is the sixth in a series: the last was in New Delhi in 2007. The conference will enable Ministers and senior officials from more than one hundred countries to take stock of global progress and plan future efforts for pandemic preparedness and the control of avian influenza.
Avian Influenza: Possible source of the next pandemic
The world has been battling “bird flu” caused by the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza type A virus for the last five years. This is because it causes major problems in poultry systems and could possibly mutate into a form easily and rapidly transmissible between humans. Sustained transmission of the virus among humans has, however, not yet occurred: there have been several hundred “sporadic” human cases.
No countries reported that their poultry were newly infected by the H5N1 avian influenza virus in the first nine months of 2008, as compared with four in the same period last year. Only 20 countries which have previously reported infections experienced outbreaks between January and September 2008, down from 25 in the corresponding 2007 period. However, the UN — World Bank report, prepared to coincide with the major global conference in Sharm el Sheikh, states that H5N1 is still “actively circulating among poultry in a number of hotspots”.
To date, 245 people have died of avian influenza. The pace of sporadic human infections and deaths from H5N1 slowed since last year - with 28 confirmed deaths in 2008 compared to 59 in 2007 — but “the threat of an influenza pandemic remains,” says the report.
Combating Avian Flu: global success but continued vigilance essential
Drawing on a detailed analysis by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, the report describes the extraordinary worldwide effort to control the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus H5N1 in poultry.
The report states that avian influenza appears to be entrenched in Indonesia and Egypt, and continues to resurface in Pakistan, parts of China, Bangladesh and from time to time in the West Bengal region of India, in Thailand, Lao PDR, Vietnam, the Republic of Korea and Egypt. The situation has improved considerably in the Middle East and in North and sub-Saharan Africa but control of avian influenza in Egypt remains a challenge. Nigeria recently announced its first H5N1 outbreak in nearly 10 months. This is a setback to earlier successes against the disease, but is nevertheless an indication of successful detection and response mechanisms in that country.
Last year’s entering into force of the International Health Regulations (2005) was an important step forward for the development of human health capacities for detection, reporting and responding to Avian and Pandemic Influenza. This improved human health reporting system, managed by the World Health Organization, is working in parallel with the existing reporting mechanism for animal diseases managed by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). But many low-income countries will need
significant support to fulfill these responsibilities.
Dr. Nabarro stressed that sustained vigilance and continued investment in countries’ capacities is crucial to maintain progress with the control of avian influenza in poultry and ensure that hard-won gains are not dissipated.
New diseases make the jump from animals to humans Several trends, including climate change, the exponential growth in human and livestock populations, rapid urbanization, forest encroachment changes in ecosystems and globalization of trade in animal products, have influenced the spread of infectious diseases that emerge at the interfaces between animals and humans and the ecosystems in which they live.
Investments made in disease surveillance, emergency response systems, public and animal health services and communication strategies for avian and pandemic influenza will also help to reduce the risk of other infectious diseases like Rift Valley fever, rabies, bovine tuberculosis and foot and mouth disease.
The report concludes that significant progress has been made in bringing together animal and human health services in the last year. National and international capacities for animal and human health surveillance have improved, and thanks to a global communications effort, supported by UNICEF, there is now greater awareness of the threats. Governments, with strong support from the international community, have strengthened animal health services and improved incentives for reporting outbreaks. A significant number of countries have introduced compensation schemes to increase incentives for reporting of outbreaks, and to mitigate the impact of control measures on the livelihoods of poultry holders.
However, the overall capacity and performance of animal health and public health services remains sub-standard in many countries, governance structures are not adequate, engagement with the private sector is insufficient, response capacity is lacking and budgets are generally too low. Much greater efforts need to be made to put in place basic biosecurity measures. As awareness of the threat of emerging infectious diseases at the animal-human interface becomes more apparent, the report identifies a need for putting greater emphasis on preventive activities rather than on more expensive control programmes.