Bangkok--20 Jan--Aziam Burson Marsteller
Investor sentiment registers a quarterly fall of 30% in Q4 08 in Thailand as global economy slows down and financial markets decline
Key Highlights of the Quarterly ING Investor Dashboard Survey
- Index for Thailand falls 30% to 59 for Q4 2008 from 84 for Q3 2008 while in comparison to Q4 2007, investor sentiment declined by 56% in Q4 2008
- Thai investors expect the local economy and personal financial situation to worsen in 2009 with
88% of respondents indicating that the economic situation had deteriorated in Q4 2008
- Slowdown in economy results in Asian investor concerns about job security with 55% of Thai respondents indicating that they are worried about job security
- Thai investors will remain focused on maintaining low-risk investment portfolios with 46% of Thai investors stating that they would invest less and preserve more cash in Q1 2009
ING, the global financial services group, today released data from the quarterly ING Investor Dashboard Survey which shows a significant overall decline of 56% in investor sentiment in Thailand in 2008, highlighting the negative impact of the global financial crisis on Thai investors over the past year.
Thailand’s investor sentiment falls year-on-year to 59 for Q4 2008 from 134 for Q4 2007 as investors react to the financial market and economic developments of 2008. The index also registers a quarter-on-quarter fall of 30% to 59 for Q4 2008 from 84 for Q3 2008.
The overall pan-Asia (ex-Japan) ING Investor Dashboard Sentiment Index declines 46% in 2008 to 73 for Q4 2008 from 135 for Q4 2007, and registers a fifth quarter-on-quarter fall of 15% to 73 for Q4 2008 from 86 for Q3 2008.
The ING Investor Dashboard is the first quarterly survey in the Asia Pacific region that provides a pan-Asia (ex-Japan) investor sentiment index. The survey is conducted quarterly across 13 markets* in Asia Pacific, and not only provides market insights on investor attitude and outlook but also allows each market to be benchmarked and tracked against the overall investor sentiment across Asia using the pan-Asia index.
Thai investors expect the negative impact of the credit crunch and US economy on their personal financial situation and the local economy to continue in 2009
The data shows an increase in the number of Thai investors who say that the economy and their personal financial status deteriorated in Q4 2008 compared to the quarter before.
- 88% of Thai investors say the economy deteriorated in Q4 2008 compared to 81% in Q3 2008
- 52% of Thai investors say their personal financial situation deteriorated in Q4 2008 compared to 51% in Q3 2008
Data suggests the key drivers of the decline in investor sentiment for Q4 2008 remain the credit crunch and slowdown in the US economy, as well as domestic developments.
- 71% of Thai investors say their investment decisions were impacted by Thai government policies in Q4 2008
- 60% say they were impacted by the US economy in Q4 2008
- 71% say they were impacted by the credit crunch in Q4 2008
Moving into Q1 2009, the credit crunch, the global economy and local politics are expected to continue to have a significant negative impact on their investment decisions. Thai investors continue to be less optimistic about the economy and their personal financial status moving into 2009 even though more are optimistic that the US economy will improve. Many investors are also concerned about the impact of the economic slowdown on job security.
- 46% of Thai investors say they will invest less and reserve more cash in Q1 2009
- 56% of Thai investors feel there will be no impact on their investment decisions with the new US administration in 2009
- 77% expect the local economy to deteriorate in Q1 2009 compared to 40% the quarter before
- 38% expect their personal financial situation to deteriorate in Q1 2009 compared to 21% the quarter before
- 55% say the economic slowdown has had a negative impact on job security
Commenting on the results, Mr. Maris Tarab, Chief Executive Officer, ING Funds (Thailand) Limited said: “Thai investors became increasingly pessimistic in Q4 2008 as the global economic downturn and credit crunch accelerated. This was compounded by unsettling political and security developments in Thailand which have more of an effect on current investment perceptions than external factors. There is real concern about the near-term future of the tourist industry, declines in local and inbound investment, export growth as well as further demonstrations aimed at removing the current government. Thai investors are retrenching and becoming increasingly more conservative with their spending and investment allocations.”
Thai investors continue to hold on to low-risk investments as they brace themselves for further uncertainty in 2009
Amidst the current financial crisis, 16% of Thai investors view low-risk investments as favourable compared to 19% for medium-risk investments and 13% for high-risk investments. Investments in local stocks, overseas mutual funds and unit trusts also declined significantly in Q4 2008.
- 20% of Thai investors invested in local stocks in Q4 2008 compared to 83% in Q3 2008
- 36% invested in local mutual funds and unit trusts in Q4 2008 compared to 43% in Q3 2008
- 15% invested in local residential real estate in Q4 2008 compared to 43% in Q3 2008
Moving into 2009, the data suggests Thai investors intend to keep to their current low-risk investment portfolio.
- 28% of Thai investors say they intend to hold more cash/deposits in Q1 2009
- Only 8% intend to continue investing more in local stocks, 12% in local mutual funds and unit trusts, and 4% in local residential real estate in Q1 2009
Most Thai investors are also expecting residential property prices to ease in Q4 2008. 64% of local investors expect residential property prices to decline in Q4 2008 by an average of 4.5%.
“Our advice is to take a long-term view. And cash is a poor long-term investment asset. Instead investors should look at an investment plan that covers a portfolio of real assets, including equities and real estate, and to invest in stages each quarter over a one to two year period so that their investments are grown at a level that matches their overall risk-appetites,” commented Mr. Tarab.
China and Taiwan investor sentiment bucks trend in the rest of Asia
Despite the overall drop in investor sentiment in Thailand and across Asia, there was an upswing in sentiment among investors in China and Taiwan, possibly driven by the recent announcements of an economic stimulus package in each market.
Markets Q3 2008 Index Score Q4 2008 Index Score Significant QoQ % Increase
China 88 103 17%
Taiwan 65 76 17%
Looking ahead to Q1 2009, data also indicates that China investors may continue to be more optimistic, suggesting that they think China is less influenced by US and global developments.
- 50% of China investors expect the local economy to improve in Q1 2009 and 54% expect their personal financial situation to improve over the same period
- 73% of China investors expect the US economy to impact their investment decisions compared to 88% who indicated so about their investments in Q4 2008
For detailed (high-resolution) data charts on the ING Investor Dashboard Sentiment Index, please download the results presentation from
For more information please contact:
James Best
Aziam Burson Marsteller
02-252-9871
Jumpon Saimala
ING Asia Pacific
02-688-7780