Bangkok--18 Jan--Standard & Poor's
The U.S. corporate speculative-grade default rate rose markedly in 2009. It peaked at 11.27% in November before declining modestly to 10.93% in December, said an article published today by Standard & Poor's, titled "2009 U.S. Corporate Default Rate: Actual Versus Forecast."
Of the entities rated speculative grade at the beginning of 2009, 163 defaulted by year-end. A year ago, our forecasts for the 2009 corporate default rate were 13.9% (209 defaults) for the baseline scenario, 10% (150 defaults) for the optimistic scenario, and 18.5% (278 defaults) for the pessimistic scenario.
"The actual default rate for 2009 of 10.93% was at the optimistic end of the range, reflecting the improved market and economic conditions in the second half of the year," said Diane Vazza, head of Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income Research Group. "In fact, 110 defaults from our pool of speculative-grade-rated entities occurred in the first six months of 2009, compared with 53 in the second half of the year."
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