Weekly Korea Economy Digest (January 24 - 31, 2012)

Economy News Friday February 3, 2012 09:35 —Export Department

Korea's trade with FTA signatories jumps

Jan 24, 2012

Korea saw its trade with seven economic entities with which it has free trade agreements jump over the past few years, government data showed Monday.

South Koreas trade with those entities came to $296.1 billion in 2011, or 27.4 percent of its total trade volume of $1.08 trillion, according to the data by the Korea Customs Service. That is up from 14.6 percent in 2009.

The entities include Singapore, Chile, Peru, the European Free Trade Association, the European Union, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

The increase is attributable to recently-enforced FTAs with the European Union and Peru, which went into effect in July and August, respectively, the customs office explained.

Korean exports to FTA signatories amounted to $166.8 billion, or 30 percent of the total, while imports stood at $129.4 billion, or 24.7 percent, the data showed. That resulted in a trade surplus of $37.4 billion with them.

Koreas trade ratio with FTA signatories is expected to grow further down the road as Seoul is preparing to enforce an FTA with the U.S., the worlds largest economy, customs officials said.

More than 10M women in workforce for first time

Jan 26, 2012

The number of female workers in Korea exceeded 10 million for the first time in 2011 due to the growing female population and a higher number of job seekers among those supporting families, data showed yesterday.

Female workers totaled 10.09 million at the end of last year, up 1.8 percent or 177,000 from a year earlier, according to the data provided by the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, and Statistics Korea.

The number of female workers has been slowly rising since it exceeded 5 million in 1978. It topped 7 million in 1989 and 8 million in 1994, before surpassing 9 million in 2002.

A major factor behind the steady increase is the growing female population. The number of women over the age of 15 has expanded by more than 2 million over the past decade to 20.98 million, the data showed.

The increase might be also attributable to a growing number of women seeking jobs to support their families struggling with the rising cost of living, officials said.

In particular, those in their 50s showed the most notable increase in the working population. The number of women in this age group grew 6.8 percent on-year to a record high of 2.05 million in 2011.

This marked the first time that women in their 50s outnumbered those in their 20s in terms of the working population. Female workers in their 20s totaled 1.92 million last year, down 1.4 percent from a year earlier.

People in their 60s also saw their working population grow 5 percent on-year to 1.19 million partly because more baby boomers seek part-time jobs when they retire.

Cosmetics, cigarette giants take market beating

Jan 24, 2012

By Kwaak Je-yup

Two blue chips have been struggling in the stock market, due to sluggish performances in the fourth quarter last year.

The sentiment for this year seems remarkably mixed, with analysts unable to come to an agreement for cosmetics leader Amore Pacific and No. 1 tobacco company KT&G.

Amore Pacific has been falling below and recovering the psychologically-significant 1-million-won line repeatedly in the last week. Its 52-week high was recorded in October, at 1.325 million won per share. On Friday, the stock went up 1.96 percent, or 20,000 won, to 1,038,000 won.

Analysts, nonetheless, seem unenthusiastic. The fourth-quarter revenue from the countrys most profitable door-to-door sales channel improved only 1.6 percent from a year before, while supermarkets generated 3 percent less.

The sales in department and duty-free stores, while performing 16.8 percent better than the 2010s fourth quarter, were pale compared to the first three quarters of 2011, which posted more than 20 percent year-on-year growth. KTB Investment & Securities estimated that the 4Q revenue was 49.3 billion won, up 1.9 percent.

There have been no public merger and acquisition plans at Amore, while competitor LG Household & Healthcare grew considerably last year through aggressive purchases.

Amore plans to increase the number of door-to-door salespeople this year, which some analysts view as positive contribution. But, KB investment & Securities considers this move to have little impact.

The only silver lining is the Chinese market, where the companys revenue grew 35 percent last year. It intends to diversify the distribution channels there and also launch its mass-market lowcost brand Innisfree.

KT&G, the countrys leading tobacco manufacturer that has ginseng maker Korea Ginseng Corp. as an affiliate, ended a two-day losing streak, although it looked shaky in the morning session.

The lower-than-expected fourth-quarter performance disappointed investors. Traders are calling the latest fall the "hongsam shock," after the local name for the red ginseng variety. The fourthquarter revenue went down 7.8 percent year-on-year to 188.3 billion won and the net profit plummeted 72.3 percent to 10.5 billion won from the same period of the previous year.

Analysts attributed this to sluggish exports, which fell 45.6 percent, the rising cost of raw materials, salary hikes and increased marketing fees. The dramatic net profit tumble was due to legal fees spent on tax payments, at around 17.9 billion won.

For 2011, KT&Gs revenue was 954.1 billion won, improving 8.1 percent from the year before, but its margins suffered. Operating profit was 214.9 billion, down 2.1 percent, and net profit 136.7 billon, falling 16.9 percent.

The outlook seems grim for this year, according to pundits. The only good news on the horizon, albeit an unsure one, is a price hike for cigarettes, which has pushed some target prices intact or higher. Korea Investment & Securities stood out by predicting a good year for red ginseng, against KTB Investment & Securities generally negative view for the ginseng side of the business.

Last Friday, the last trading session, KT&Gs stock closed 2.22 percent or 1,600 won higher at 73,700 won per share, recovering from a morning drop.

Manufacturing sector expands 7.7% in 2011: report

24 Jan, 2012

Koreas manufacturing sector grew at a brisk pace of 7.7 percent on-year in 2011 fueled by surging exports, a report by the central bank showed Tuesday.

The Bank of Korea said of the 16 industrial sectors checked, only five surpassed the countrys gross domestic product growth, with three contracting compared to the year before.

Asias fourth largest economy may have grown by 3.8 percent last year, down from 6.2 percent growth posted in 2010. For the first three quarters of 2011, data showed the economy growing 3.7 percent on-year.

Of industries that surpassed the annual GDP growth, the manufacturing sector expanded the most, followed by telecommunications and the retail and the restaurant business that grew 5.7 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively.

"Overall growth for manufacturing declined compared to the year before, but it was able to pull off solid gains because of overseas demand for locally made products," a central bank source said.

The latest report, in addition, showed the healthcare and social welfare sector, and the transport and storage sector posting growth of 4.6 percent and 4.1 percent, each for the cited year.

The BOKs findings, however, showed the construction, mining and farming sectors contracting visa-vis 2010.

The construction sector hit by a weak real estate market reported negative annual growth of 6.9 percent, with numbers for mining and farming falling 2.8 percent and 3.4 percent.

The central bank speculated that the local real estate market may have hit bottom in 2010, but gains remained relatively sluggish last year.

The minus growth in construction marks the worst showing since the 7.1 percent contraction tallied in 1999, and the fourth straight quarter of negative growth since the October-December period of 2010.

Public debt continued to skyrocket in Q3 of 2011

30 Jan, 2012

The debt held by the Korean public sector rose to nearly 800 trillion won ($715 billion) in the third quarter, data showed yesterday, dealing another blow to a country which is grappling with high household debt.

The public sectors debt stood at 789.4 trillion won as of the end of the third quarter, up 9.2 percent from a year earlier, according to the data compiled by the Ministry of Strategy and Finance and the central bank. The figure is more than double the governments 2012 budget of 325.4 trillion won.

The public sector includes the central and provisional governments and state-run companies.

The growth rate of debt held by state-run firms is much sharper than that of debt owned by the government, data showed.

State-run companies debt amounted to 363.8 trillion won as of end-September, up 9.6 percent from the previous year.

Experts said the public sectors debt rose mainly because the government secured funds via debt sales by state-run firms to cover national projects.

Foreign IBs expect KOSPI to top 2,000 mark at year-end

25 Jan, 2012

Foreign investment banks have painted a rosy outlook of the Korean stock market, projecting the main index to break the 2,000 barrier at the end of this year, a report showed Wednesday.

Five of the eight surveyed investment banks, including Barclays and Credit Suisse, said the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) is likely to surpass the cited level as it gains upward momentum in the second half, boosted by easing eurozone woes and improving economic conditions, according to the report by the Korea Center for International Finance.

Goldman Sachs cited cooling inflation, a possible rate cut and the strengthening Korean won as factors that could shore up the KOSPI to the 2,100 mark at year-end.

Barclays said strong exports will help boost the stock index to the 2,270 level as robust shipments to emerging economies offset declining demand in Europe and the United States.

The investment banks, however, raised concerns on high volatility and forecast the KOSPI to suffer a tough period in the first half amid external uncertainties, according to the report.

Market and political uncertainties, such as the eurozone debt crisis and upcoming elections in major economies, are likely to heighten volatility in the local stock market, they said.

Daiwa said the KOSPI is likely to move in the 1,700-2,100 range. The index is likely to dip to its yearly low in the first half due to financial uncertainties stemming from massive eurozone debt maturities and a global economic slowdown before rebounding in the second half, it said.

Nomura projected the stock index to go through a roller-coaster ride in the first half but gain ground in the second half as domestic economic circumstances and corporate fundamentals recover.

The report also said although foreign investment banks illustrated a positive outlook, they became less favorable to the local stock market compared with a year ago.

Seven of 10 investment banks recommended investors increase their portion of South Korean stocks last year, while only four of nine investment banks recommended the strategy this year, it said.

In 2011, the KOSPI slumped 11 percent, but fared better than the stock markets of emerging economies, which saw a 14.9 percent drop on average.

Korea's current account surplus hits $3.96 billion in Dec.

30 Jan, 2012

South Korea posted a current account surplus for the 22nd month in December, but the surplus narrowed from the previous month as the service account turned negative due to tourism-related shortfalls, the central bank said Monday.

The current account surplus reached US$3.96 billion in December, down from a revised $4.56 billion in the previous month, according to a provisional report by the Bank of Korea (BOK). The current account is the broadest measure of cross-border trade.

The current account remained in the black for the 22nd straight month on the back of robust exports, which account for about 50 percent of the Korean economy.

For the whole year of 2011, South Korea posted a current account surplus of $27.65 billion, down from $29.39 billion the previous year and marking the lowest since $3.19 billion tallied in 2008 after the global financial crisis.

South Korea's goods balance posted surplus of $3.85 billion in December, down from a revised $4 billion one month earlier. For 2011, the goods balance surplus narrowed to $32.1 billion.

The country's goods account has stayed in the black since January of 2009 despite worries that the public debt crisis in Europe may dampen its exports, as an increase in overseas shipments of steel and auto products offset declining sales of mobile devices and display panels, the BOK said.

Asia's fourth-largest economy posted a 10.8 percent on-month increase in customs-cleared exports in December as demand from the Middle East and Japan surged, outweighing the widened export decline to the eurozone countries, the central bank said.

For the whole year of 2011, South Korea's exports grew 19.3 percent from 2010 on a customs clearance basis.

The service account, which includes expenditures by South Koreans on overseas trips and studying abroad, swung into the red in December with a deficit of $205.2 million due to widened losses in travel and other business accounts.

The financial account, covering cross-border investments, posted a new outflow of $4.15 billion in December, narrowing from a revised net outflow of $6.29 billion in November.

Office of Commercial Affairs, Seoul

Source : http://www.depthai.go.th

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