Attachment
" Indicators in October 2014 showed improving signs from previous month in domestic expenditures particularly in private consumption, private investment, and public expenditure. External demand as reflected by exports also expanded. For the supply-side indicators, agricultural sector showed contraction, while the number of inbound tourists showed the first expansion in 10 months."1.Private consumption in October 2014 showed improving signs. This was reflected by real VAT collection at constant price in October 2014 which contracted by -1.7 percent per year, but expanded by 2.8 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. Looking into details, real VAT collection on domestic consumption expanded by 3.3 percent per year, while real VAT collection on imports contracted by -7.5 percent per year. Likewise, motorcycle sales in October 2014 decreased by -7.6 percent year-on-year, but increased by 0.9 percent month-onmonth. This was due to a reduction in motorcycle sales in Bangkok and other regions by -11.4 percent and -6.5 percent per year, respectively. The passenger car sales in October 2014 contracted by -28.0 percent per year, but expanded by 1.4 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. Consumer Confidence Index in October 2014 was at 69.6 points increasing from last month. This was due to the government's economic stimulus package particularly the financial aids for farmers. Furthermore, the investment in maintenances affected local employment, and a decline in gasohol price reduced people's living costs. Besides, the imports on consumer goods in October 2014 expanded by 0.9 percent per year, but contracted by -3.3 percent per month after seasonal adjustment.
Private Consumption Indicators 2013 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct YTD Real Value Added Tax Collection (%yoy) -0.7 6.8 -0.3 -7.3 -1.1 -0.1 0.3 2.3 4.1 -1.7 0.5 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -3.0 -2.0 -1.2 5.4 -2.4 -1.3 0.7 1.3 2.8 - Imports of Consumer Goods (%yoy) 4.4 4.6 7.7 6.2 -0.2 -3.9 0.4 0.4 11.6 0.9 -0.9 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -4.0 -1.3 -0.7 6.1 -7.8 3.6 -0.7 14.8 -3.3 - Passenger Car Sales (%yoy) -6.1 97.2 -3.3 -24.8 -39.7 -55.3 -37.7 -38.3 -35.9 -28.0 -43.7 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -3.3 -27.3 -2.8 -11.0 -25.7 1.7 -7.4 -0.8 1.4 - Motorcycle Sales (%yoy) -6.0 5.4 -6.2 -8.7 -14.9 -20.8 -18.2 -8.1 -4.4 -7.6 -15.2 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -1.0 -5.1 -4.7 -4.8 -8.0 -2.3 7.4 4.3 0.9 - Consumer Confidence Index 70.2 73.8 72.8 69.3 64.9 59.9 61.2 69.3 69.2 69.6 64.12.Private investment in October 2014 showed improving signs in machinery sector. This was reflected by imports of capital goods in October 2014, which expanded by 8.0 percent per year, but contracted by -7.1 percent per month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). Meanwhile, commercial car sales in October 2014 contracted by -13.6 per year, but expanded by 0.8 percent per month after seasonal adjustment (m-o-m SA). For private investment in construction , cemen sales in October 2014 decreased by -5.7 percent per year, but increased by 0.4 percent per month.
Private Investment Indicators 2013 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct YTD Construction Cement Sales (%yoy) 8.3 15.9 14.6 3.0 0.3 -2.4 -3.0 -2.9 -5.6 -5.7 -3.0 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 0.6 1.2 -2.0 0.7 -2.0 0.5 -2.2 -2.5 0.4 - Machinery Commercial Car Sales (%yoy) -8.4 19.4 3.2 -26.2 -24.1 -36.6 -30.6 -20.4 -18.5 -13.6 -28.8 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -3.1 -7.6 -14.2 -0.9 -15.2 -2.8 -1.2 4.0 0.8 - Import of capital goods (%yoy) -5.9 3.7 -1.5 -7.9 -16.6 -14.1 -12.6 0.0 17.8 8.0 -7.4 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -9.8 -0.3 -6.0 -1.6 -6.9 1.4 7.9 45.6 -7.1 - Import of capital goods exc. aircraft, ship and train (%yoy) %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 8.3 15.9 14.6 3.0 0.3 -2.4 -3.0 -2.9 -5.6 -5.7 -3.03.Fiscal indicators in October 2014 (the first month of FY2015) reflected that fiscal policy played a role in supporting the Thai economy through a budget deficit. The total budget disbursement in October 2014 amounted at 367.6 billion baht or expanded by 42.3 percent per year. The budget disbursement for FY 2015 amounted at 344.8 billion baht or expanded by 41.3 percent per year. This amounts comprised of (1) current year expenditure of 330.0 billion baht, which expanded by 36.7 percent per year and (2) capital expenditure of 14.8 billion baht or 13.4 percent of FY2015 expenditure framework (2,575.0 billion baht). The net government revenue collection (net of local authorities' allocation) in October 2014 amounted at 171.5 billion baht or decreased by -4.0 percent per year. However, the net government revenue in October 2014 was higher than the estimation by 5.1 percent. The underlying reason was that (1) the revenue from income tax base reduced by -2.5 percent per year, which was caused by a reduction in corporate income tax collection by -1.4 percent per year, and a decline in personal income tax collection by -3.8 percent per year. This was due to a reduction in income tax rates. (2) the revenue from consumption tax base (VAT) decreased by -0.3 percent per year, which was caused by an increase in VAT collection on domestic consumption by 4.7 percent per year and a decrease in VAT collection on imports by -6.0 percent per year. Overall, the budget balance in October showed a deficit of -193.4 billion baht.
Fiscal Sector Indicators FY2014 FY2014 FY2015 Q1/ Q2/ Q3/ Q4/ Budget Oct YTD FY14 FY14 FY14 FY14 Framework Net Government 2,073.9 503.5 437.2 608.3 525.0 2,325.0 171.5 171.5 Revenue (net of local authorities’ allocation) (%y-o-y) -4.1 -1.0 -6.9 -5.2 -3.1 2.2 -4.0 -4.0 Expenditure 2,460.0 831.1 553.0 514.7 561.2 2,575.0 367.6 367.6 (%y-o-y) 2.4 5.7 -5.6 6.8 2.2 2.0 42.3 42.3 Budget Balance -390.0 -334.7 -115.9 105.5 -44.9 -250.0 -193.4 -193.44.Exports in October 2014 showed improving signs. The exports in October 2014 showed a continued expanding sign in the second consecutive month. The export values in October 2014 was amounted at 20.2 billion USD or expanded by 4.0 percent per year.In addition, after seasonal adjustment, exports expanded by 4.7 percent per month. Major exporting markets, which still had the expansion in October 2014 comprised of U.S., Japan, EU, and ASEAN-9. Looking into details, export products that expanded in October 2014 were agricultural products, automobile, and electronics. Import values in October 2014 was amounted at 20.1 billion USD, which contracted by -4.9 percent per year. As such, the larger export value compared to that of imports resulted in a trade surplus of 0.1 billion USD in October 2014.
Major Exports Market 2013 2013 2014 (Exports Share 2012>>>2013) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct YTD Total Exports Value (%yoy) -0.3 3.9 -2.2 -1.7 -1.0 -1.0 0.3 -1.8 3.2 4.0 0.4 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - -1.3 -2.8 1.7 1.7 -1.3 -0.8 -1.1 2.5 4.7 - 1. China (11.7%>>>11.9%) 1.4 7.3 -13.4 -0.3 12.9 -4.4 -4.2 -6.3 -1.7 -7.8 -5.0 2. US (9.9%>>>10%) 0.8 0.8 -3.5 0.7 5.2 0.6 4.9 3.4 6.2 6.4 3.3 3. Japan (10.2%>>>9.7%) -5.2 1.5 -6.3 -10.1 -5.5 2.0 -4.9 -1.0 1.4 4.1 -0.7 4. Europe (8.5%>>>8.8%) 2.7 7.0 -5.3 3.3 6.3 4.8 11.0 2.0 4.5 8.5 6.28 5. Hong Kong (5.7%>>>5.8%) 0.7 11.2 7.7 -1.4 -12.0 -1.8 1.7 -13.5 -6.8 2.9 -4.1 6. Malaysia (5.4%>>>5.7%) 4.7 -0.8 5.8 12.4 2.0 -0.1 -0.1 -5.0 -11.2 n.a. n.a. PS. ASEAN-9 (24.6%>>>26.0%) 5.0 5.9 2.4 10.8 1.2 -5.4 0.2 1.1 8.8 n.a. n.a. PS. ASEAN-5 (17.2%>>>17.6%) 2.0 5.4 -0.7 11.2 -7.1 -11.0 -3.7 -4.2 4.3 n.a. n.a. PS. ASEAN-4 (7.4%>>>8.3%) 11.8 7.0 9.9 10.0 20.3 7.1 8.8 13.6 19.0 n.a. n.a.5. Supply-side indicators in October 2014 showed improving signs in service sector. The service sector reflected by the number of inbound tourists was recorded at 2.18 million persons in October 2014 or expanded by 6.1 percent per year, which was the first expansion in 10 months. After seasonal adjustment, it increased by 12.3 percent per month. This was due to the confidence of tourists in domestic situation. Furthermore, the number of inbound tourists from China highly expanded by 67.0 percent per year. This was due to the exemption of visa fees for holders of Chinese and Chinese Taipei (Taiwan) passports from 9th August to 8th November 2014, and a public holiday in the People's Republic of China to celebrate their national day during the beginning of the month. Meanwhile, Agricultural Production Index (API) in October 2014 continually contracted by -5.2 percent per year. This was due to a decline in rice production, which was caused by droughts during the beginning of the year. In addition, farmers reduced there was a reduction in the second-round planting of out-of-season rice, as well as a contraction in corn product and rubber due to the previous harvest. According to heavy rain in the south, this was the obstacle for rubber tapping. In addition, the productions from pineapple, oil palm, and swine contracted in this month. However, production of livestock grew well particularly poultry and poultry products due to an increasing demand and no epidemic of any disease. For manufacturing sector , Thai Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) in October 2014 stood at 87.5 slightly increasing from previous month. This was owing to the increasing orders particularly the orders in fashion industry, food, and electrical appliances. Moreover, the border trades still expanded well.
Supply Side Indicators 2013 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct YTD Number of In-Bound Tourists (%yoy) 18.8 22.1 24.3 21.4 9.3 -7.8 -13.3 -10.1 -7.0 6.1 -8.7 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA - 4.6 6.6 -0.3 -1.4 -11.7 -0.7 3.9 4.9 12.3 - Agricultural Production Index (%yoy) -2.4 -2.8 -3.6 -8.6 2.5 1.6 4.2 -0.5 -4.2 -5.2 3.1 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -0.4 -3.2 -0.2 5.4 4.4 -0.6 -5.5 -6.4 7.6 -6. Internal and external stabilities remained robust. Headline inflation in October 2014 increased by 1.5 percent per year lower than that of last month, which was 1.8 percent. This was mainly due to a decline in crude oil price in world market, which showed a continually decreasing signs. This affected the restructuring of retail gas prices particularly gasohol price. Additionally, there was a decreasing price in meat, fishing products, and poultry products caused by an increasing production, and remaining demand. Furthermore, core inflation stood at 1.7 percent. Unemployment rate in October 2014 was 0.8 percent of total labor force, or equivalent to 289,000 unemployed persons. Public debt GDP ratio at September 2014 stood at 47.2 percent, still below the Fiscal Sustainability Framework, which was targeted at 60.0 percent. Likewise, external economic stability remained robust and resilient to the risk from volatilities in the global economy , as indicated by the high-level of international reserves at the end of October 2014 at 160.6 billion USD, or approximately 2.8 times of short-term external debt.
Macroeconomic Stability 2013 2013 2014 Indicators Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct YTD Internal Stability Headline Inflation (%yoy) 2.2 3.1 2.3 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.5 2.1 Core Inflation (%yoy) 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 Unemployment rate (% of total labor force)0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 Public debt (%GDP) 45.7 44.2 44.5 45.5 45.7 46.5 47.1 47.2 47.2 n.a. 47.2 External Stability Current Account Balance (Billion USD) -2.8 0.5 -6.7 0.8 2.9 8.2 0.5 -1.5 -0.9 n.a. 7.3 International Reserves (Billion USD) 167.2 177.8 170.8 172.3 167.2 167.5 168.2 161.6 161.6 160.6 160.6 Forward (Billion USD) 23.0 23.7 23.7 21.2 23.0 23.6 23.7 24.7 24.7 23.8 23.8Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th