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"Indicators in February 2015 showed slowing signs from private expenditures and exports. However, Thai economy was still supported by the tourism sector, which showed high-level expansion and by industrial sector, which turned to expand positively. Moreover, Thailand's economic stabilities remained robust."1.Private consumption in February 2015 showed slowing signs from last month. This was reflected by real VAT collection at constant price on domestic consumption base in February 2015, which increased by 2.4 percent per year decreasing from last month, when it expanded by 9.5 percent per year. Meanwhile real VAT collection at constant price on imports continued to contract by -8.4 percent per year. Consequently, real VAT collection in February 2015 contracted by -2.1 percent per year. Passenger car sales in February 2015 continued to decrease by -12.5 percent per year. Consumer Confidence Index in February 2015 was down for the second consecutive month at 68.4 points slightly decreasing from the previous month since people still perceived that the economy recovered slowly and the agricultural prices particularly in rice and rubber stayed at the low level. Motorcycle sales in February 2015 showed the second month of expansion. The motorcycle sales expanded by 0.7 percent per year or expanded by 2.0 percent per month after seasonal adjustment due to the improvement in motorcycle sales in other regions, which increased by 11.9 percent per year improved from last month, when it contracted by -2.2 percent per year. In addition, imports of consumer goods in February 2015 highly expanded by 32.5 percent per year or expanded by 10.0 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. This expansion was driven by (1) household electrical appliances, (2) clothes, shoes, and other textiles (3) fruits and vegetables including products from them, and (4) watches and parts, which expanded by 48.4 32.6 73.2 and 52.1, respectively.
Private Consumption 2013 2014 2014 2015 Indicators Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb YTD Real Value Added Tax Collection (%yoy) -0.7 0.4 -0.2 0.3 2.3 -0.9 -2.0 -2.1 -2.0 %qoq_SA /%mom_SA -1.8 -1.2 0.6 1.3 2.1 -3.1 - Imports of Consumer Goods (%yoy) 4.5 1.5 -3.9 0.4 0.4 8.8 -0.2 32.5 13.7 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -3.4 3.4 0.3 7.8 -7.7 10.0 - Passenger Car Sales (%yoy) -6.1 -41.4 -55.3 -37.7 -38.3 -27.9 -11.4 -12.5 -12.0 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -23.9 0.8 -6.6 0.2 -6.5 -2.7 - Motorcycle Sales (%yoy) -6.0 -14.3 -20.8 -18.2 -8.1 -7.8 14.5 0.7 6.9 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -8.0 -2.0 6.7 -4.1 -0.1 2.0 - Consumer Confidence Index 70.2 65.0 59.9 61.2 69.3 69.6 69.7 68.4 68.22. Private investment in February 2015 showed slowing signs in construction sector as reflected by domestic cement sales in February 2015, which contracted by -2.4 percent per year but expanded by 2.2 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. This reflected that the investment in construction sector still kept remaining. However, the real estate tax collection in February 2015 showed the third consecutive month of positive expansion by increasing 10.4 percent per year. The accelerating transfer of real estate was due to people’s expectation in the law enforcement of inheritance tax. Investment in machinery sector as reflected by commercial car sales contracted by -9.6 percent per year. However, imports of capital goods showed improving signs by expanding 5.9 percent per year.
Private Investment Indicators 2013 2014 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb YTD Construction Real estate tax collection(%yoy) 18.1 -2.3 -5.6 -5.9 -2.1 3.4 12.0 10.4 11.1 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -11.3 -3.0 9.4 7.1 -4.1 -3.4 - Cement Sales (%yoy)) 8.3 -3.2 -2.4 -3.0 -2.9 -4.8 -5.8 -2.4 -4.2 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -1.8 0.5 -2.2 -1.4 0.4 2.2 - Machinery Commercial Car Sales (%yoy) -8.4 -26.8 -36.6 -30.6 -20.4 -15.8 -13.7 -9.6 -11.7 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -15.6 -1.4 0.0 0.5 -9.2 -0.3 - Import of capital goods (%yoy) -5.9 -8.4 -14.1 -12.6 0.0 -3.1 3.4 5.9 4.6 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -6.4 1.8 6.9 -5.4 -0.7 2.9 Import of capital goods exc. aircraft, -10.2 -5.7 -11.4 -4.4 -4.0 1.1 -4.5 10.2 2.3 ship and train (%yoy) %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -0.4 1.8 0.0 -0.4 -6.5 6.33.Fiscal indicators in February 2015 reflected that fiscal policy played a role in supporting the Thai economy through a budget deficit. The budget balance in February 2015 showed a deficit of -8.5 billion baht. The budget disbursement in February 2015 was amounted at 150.4 billion baht or contracted by -13.7 percent per year. Overall, for now the budget disbursement of current fiscal year amounted at 131.4 billion baht or contracted by -14.7 percent per year. This amounts comprised of (1) current year expenditure of 109.7 billion baht, which decreased by -22.7 percent per year and (2) capital expenditure of 21.8 billion baht, which expanded by 78.4 percent per year. The net government revenue collection (net of local authorities' allocation) in February 2015 amounted at 149.8 billion baht or increased by 0.5 percent per year. Looking into details, (1) tax collection from consumption base (VAT) decreased by -2.7 percent per year due to a decrease in tax collection on imports, which decreased by -8.9 percent per year. However, real VAT collection on domestic consumption expanded by 1.6 percent per year, and this reflected that the domestic consumption still expanded. (2) Tax collection from income base decreased by -0.8 percent per year. This was due to a decrease in corporate income tax collection by -2.1 percent per year, while personal income tax collection increased by 0.5 percent per year
Fiscal Sector Indicators FY2014 FY2014 FY2015 (Billion Baht) Q1/ Q2/ Q3/ Q4/ Budget Q1/ Jan Feb YTD FY14 FY14 FY14 FY14 Framework FY15 Net Government Revenue 2,073.9 503.5 437.2 608.5 525.5 2,325.0 507.3 158.9 149.8 816.1 (net of local authorities’ allocation) (%y-o-y) -4.1 -1.0 -6.9 -5.2 -3.0 2.2 0.8 1.8 0.5 0.9 Expenditure 2,460.0 831.1 553.0 514.7 561.2 2,575.0 844.1 215.7 150.4 1,210.3 (%y-o-y) 2.4 5.7 -5.6 6.8 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.2 -13.7 -0.7 Budget Balance -390.0 -334.7 -115.9 105.5 -44.9 -250.0 -346.8 -57.5 -8.5 -412.84.Exports in February 2015 contracted for two consecutive months. The export values in February 2015 was amounted at 17.2 billion USD or contracted by -6.1 percent per year. The contraction was caused by the declining exports in agricultural products, minerals and fuel, automobile, and agro-industrial products, which decreased by -17.5 -24.7 -1.7 and -3.9 percent per year, respectively. The exporting products that showed expansion were electrical appliances and electrics which expanded by 0.4 and 0.4 percent per year, respectively. Export markets showing the contraction in February 2015 comprised of China, Japan, Eurozone, and ASEAN-5 which contracted by -15.1 -11.7 -4.7 and -16.4 percent per year, respectively. Meanwhile, the import values in February 2015 was amounted at 16.8 billion USD, or expanded by 1.5 percent per year. As such, the larger export value compared to that of imports resulted in a trade surplus of 0.4 billion USD in February 2015.
Major Exports Market 2013 2014 2014 2015 (Exports Share 2013>>>2014) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb YTD Total export values (%yoy) -0.3 -0.4 -1.4 0.0 -1.8 1.6 -3.5 -6.1 -4.8 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -1.0 -0.8 -0.4 3.8 -5.5 -1.9 - 1.China (11.9%>>>11.0%) 1.4 -7.9 -4.5 -4.2 -6.3 -15.3 -19.7 -15.1 -17.4 2.USA (10.0%>>>10.5%) 0.8 4.1 0.6 4.9 3.4 7.2 6.0 5.1 5.5 3.Japan (9.7%>>>9.6%) -5.2 -1.9 0.7 -6.4 -1.0 -0.6 -7.5 -11.7 -9.6 4.Eurozone (8.8%>>>9.2%) 2.7 4.7 4.8 10.9 2.0 1.7 -5.0 -4.7 -4.9 5.Malaysia (5.7%>>>5.6%) 4.7 -1.9 -0.1 -1.4 -5.0 -1.0 -12.5 -19.3 -16.0 6.Hong kong (5.8%>>>5.5%) 0.7 -4.4 -1.8 1.7 -13.5 -1.8 8.3 -1.2 3.1 PS.ASEAN-9 (26.0%>>>26.1%) 5.0 0.2 -5.4 -0.1 1.1 5.2 -0.7 -8.3 -4.5 PS.ASEAN-5 (17.6%>>>17.0%) 2.0 -3.9 -11.0 -4.1 -4.2 4.3 -4.8 -16.4 -10.7 PS.ASEAN-4 (8.3%>>>9.1%) 11.8 9.0 7.0 8.8 13.6 6.8 6.8 7.0 6.95. Supply-side indicators in tourism sector showed high-level expansion and this drove Thai economy expanding. The number of inbound tourists in January 2015 was recorded at 2.65 million persons, which expanded by 16.3 percent per year or expanded by 0.2 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. This expansion was driven by tourists from Southeast Asia and ASEAN, which expanded by 39.5 and 49.3 percent per year, respectively. However, the number of inbound tourists from Europe and Oceania showed the contraction by -14.3 and -6.4 percent per year, respectively. The preliminary data for the number of inbound tourists in February 2015 was amounted at 2.69 million persons or expanded by 29.6 percent per year. In addition, for first 13 days of March 2015, the number of inbound tourists was recorded at 1.10 million persons or expanded by 27.6 percent per year and this reflected the strong growth in the tourism sector. The preliminary data for Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) in February 2015 showed the first expansion in 22 months by expanding 3.5 percent per year. However, Thai Industries Sentiment Index (TISI) in February 2015 was 88.9 points and this was the second consecutive month of declining. This decline was due to the slowing in domestic purchasing power particularly the purchasing power in agriculture and the continued decline in agricultural product prices. Agricultural sector as reflected by Agricultural Production Index (API)in February 2015 contracted by -3.8 percent per year due to the decreasing production in rubber and paddy, oil palm, and corn for animal feed. However, the livestock products still increased due to the increasing production in pork, chicken, and eggs.
Supply Side Indicators 2013 2014 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb YTD Agricultural Production Index (%yoy) -2.2 0.5 1.1 6.6 2.3 -4.5 1.0 -3.8 -1.4 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 5.3 -7.6 -0.2 -1.8 5.9 -1.3 - Manufacturing Production Index -3.3 -4.6 -7.0 -4.8 -3.9 -2.4 -0.8 3.6* 1.4 (%yoy, preliminary) %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -3.3 -2.5 -3.6 2.7 -1.7 3.2* - Number of In-Bound Tourists (%yoy) 18.8 -6.7 -9.0 -15.9 -10.1 7.0 16.3 29.6* 22.6* %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -11.1 -2.1 7.6 13.9 0.2 3.5* - *Preliminary6. Internal stability remained desirable and external stability remained robust. Headline inflation in February 2015 decreased by -0.5 percent per year due to the decrease in fuel prices. However, after seasonal adjustment, it expanded by 0.12 percent per month caused by an increase in fuel prices, bus fares, and finished food prices. Core inflation stood at 1.5 percent per year. Unemployment rate in February 2015 was 0.8 percent of total labor force, or equivalent to 316,000 unemployed persons. Public debt GDP ratio at the end of January 2015 stood at 46.5 percent, still below the Fiscal Sustainability Framework, which was targeted at 60.0 percent. Likewise, external economic stability remained robust and resilient to the risk from volatilities in the global economy , as indicated by the high-level of international reserves at the end of February 2015 at 156.9 billion USD, or approximately 2.7 times of short-term external debt.
Macroeconomic Stability 2013 2014 2014 2015 Indicators Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb YTD Internal Stability Headline Inflation (%yoy) 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 Core Inflation (%yoy) 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 Unemployment rate 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.9 (% of total labor force) Public debt (%GDP) 45.7 45.8 46.5 47.1 47.2 46.3 46.5 n.a. 46.5 External Stability Current Account Balance -2.5 14.2 5.5 -0.6 -0.5 9.8 2.5 n.a. 2.5 (Billion USD) International Reserves 167.2 157.1 167.9 168.9 161.6 157.1 155.4 156.9 156.9 (Billion USD) Forward (Billion USD) 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.7 24.7 23.1 22.8 20.8 20.8Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th