Attachment
"Economic indicators in March and the first quarter of 2015 showed improving signs from domestic expenditures particularly from private consumptions. However, exports showed a contraction. The supply-side economy was supported by the tourism sector even though agricultural sector showed contracting signs. Meanwhile, Thailand's economic stabilities remained robust."1.Private consumption in March and Q1 of 2015 showed improving signs. This was reflected by real VAT collection at constant price on domestic consumption base in March 2015, which continued to increase by 20.1 percent per year. This accelerated from previous month when it increased by 2.3 percent per year. Meanwhile real VAT collection at constant price on imports continued to contract by -8.9 percent per year due to the decrease in world crude oil prices. Overall, real VAT collection in March 2015 expanded by 7.3 percent per year or increased by 5.9 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. Thus, in Q1/2015 real VAT collection expanded by 1.0 percent per year or expanded by 0.6 percent per quarter (q-o-q SA). This was corresponding with motorcycle sales in March 2015 which showed the third consecutive month of expansion and increased by 18.1 percent per year or expanded by 8.4 percent m-o-m SA. This was due to the expansion in motorcycle sales in Bangkok and other regions. In addition, in Q1/2015 motorcycle sales expanded by 10.9 percent per quarter. Meanwhile, passenger car sales in March 2015 continued to contract by -13.4 percent per year and in Q1/2015 the passenger car sales contracted by -12.5 percent per year.Consumer Confidence Index in March 2015 was 67.1 points decreasing from the previous month and this was the third consecutive month of decreasing and the lowest level in 9 months. This was due to the anxiety in the volatility of global and domestic economies. Although the oil prices decreased, people's purchasing power did not increase because the decline in agricultural prices made people cautious to spend. In Q1/2015 the Consumer Confidence Index stood at 68.4 points. Additionally, the imports of consumer goods in March 2015 expanded by 5.2 percent per year and in Q1/2015 the imports of consumer goods expanded by 10.0 percent per year.
Private Consumption 2014 2014 2015 Indicators Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb March YTD Real Value Added Tax Collection (%yoy) 0.4 -0.2 0.3 2.3 -0.9 1.0 -2.0 -2.1 7.3 1.0 %qoq_SA /%mom_SA -1.8 -1.2 0.6 1.3 0.6 2.1 -2.8 5.9 - Imports of Consumer Goods (%yoy) 1.5 -3.8 0.4 0.2 8.1 10.0 -0.2 32.5 5.2 10.0 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -3.0 3.2 0.4 6.9 -0.5 -8.7 12.7 -8.8 - Passenger Car Sales (%yoy) -41.4 -55.3 -37.7 -38.3 -27.9 -12.5 -11.4 -12.5 -13.4 -12.5 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -23.5 0.0 -6.2 0.1 -6.4 -7.4 -2.9 -3.5 - Motorcycle Sales (%yoy) -14.3 -20.8 -18.2 -8.1 -7.8 10.9 14.5 0.7 18.1 10.9 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -8.7 -1.7 6.2 -3.2 9.7 0.8 2.3 8.4 - Consumer Confidence Index 65.0 59.9 61.2 69.3 69.6 68.4 69.7 68.4 67.1 68.42. Private investment in March and Q1 of 2015 still remained. The investment in construction sector as reflected by cement sales in March 2015 turned to increased by 0.6 percent per year or expanded by 2.3 percent m-o-m SA. However, in Q1/2015 cement sales contracted by -2.5 percent per year but increased by 0.6 percent q-o-q SA. The real estate tax collection in March 2015 expanded by 0.7 percent per year slowing from the previous month. Consequently, in Q1/2015 real estate tax collection expanded by 4.5 percent per year. The investment in machinery sector as reflected by commercial car sales in March 2015 continued to contract by -10.6 percent per year. In Q1/2015 commercial car sales contracted by -11.3 percent per year. The imports of capital goods in March 2015 turned to decrease by -6.9 percent per year and in Q1/2015 the imports of capital goods expanded by 0.9 percent per year or contracted by -0.4 percent q-o-q SA.
Private Investment Indicators 2014 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar YTD Construction sector Real estate tax collection (%yoy) -2.2 -5.6 -5.9 -2.1 3.9 4.5 12.1 2.4 0.7 4.5 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -8.1 -3.7 9.8 6.4 -6.7 -5.0 -9.1 -4.3 - Cement sales (%yoy) -3.2 -2.4 -3.0 -2.9 -4.8 -2.5 -5.8 -2.4 0.6 -2.5 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -2.1 0.5 -2.1 -1.2 0.6 0.6 2.3 2.3 - Machinery sector Commercial car sales (%yoy) -26.8 -36.6 -30.6 -20.4 -15.8 -11.3 -13.7 -9.6 -10.6 -11.3 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -13.8 -2.8 0.3 -0.9 -7.0 -9.5 -0.7 -7.1 - Imports of capital goods (%yoy) -8.4 -14.1 -12.6 0.0 -3.1 0.9 3.4 5.9 -6.9 0.9 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -6.4 1.8 6.9 -5.4 -0.4 -0.7 2.9 -13.4 - Imports of capital goods -5.7 -11.4 -4.4 -4.0 1.1 0.1 -4.5 10.2 -4.2 0.1 (exclude aircraft, ship, and plane) (%yoy) %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -0.4 1.8 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -6.5 6.3 -9.7 -3. Fiscal indicators in March and Q1 of 2015 (or Q2 of FY2015) reflected that fiscal policy played a role in supporting the Thai economy through a budget deficit. The budget balance in March 2015 showed a deficit of -81.0 billion baht and in Q1/2015 (or Q2/FY2015) the budget balance showed a deficit of -144.7 billion baht. The budget disbursement in March 2015 was amounted at 251.4 billion baht or expanded by 52.0 percent per year. Overall, the budget disbursement of current fiscal year amounted at 228.4 billion baht or expanded by 60.8 percent per year. This amounts comprised of (1) current year expenditure of 190.2 billion baht, which increased by 47.8 percent per year and (2) capital expenditure of 38.1 billion baht, which expanded by 186.7 percent per year. Therefore, in Q1/2015 (or Q2/FY2015) the total expenditure was disbursed at 617.6 billion baht or expanded by 11.7 percent per year. The expenditure of Fiscal Year 2015 in Q1/2015 (or Q2/FY2015) was disbursed at 557.7 billion baht or 21.7 percent of the budget framework of FY2015 (2,575.0 billion baht)The net government revenue collection (net of local authorities' allocation) in March 2015 amounted at 157.4 billion baht or increased by 19.2 percent per year. This comprised of (1) tax collection from consumption base (VAT) which increased by 6.6 percent per year due to an increase in tax collection on domestic consumption, which increased by 19.4 percent per year. This was reflected that domestic consumption continued to grow well. In addition, this was caused by the VAT payment by the private sector, which has invested in the infrastructure of the transportation system in the optical fiber. However, real VAT collection on imports contracted by -9.5 percent per year reflected the slowing imports. (2) Tax collection from income base increased by 13.0 percent per year. Personal income tax collection and corporate income tax collection expanded by 17.8 and 5.7 percent per year. In Q1/2015 (or Q2/FY2015) the net government revenue collection (net of local authorities' allocation) amounted at 466.5 billion baht or increased by 6.7 percent per year.
Fiscal Sector Indicators FY2014 FY2014 FY2015 (Billion Baht) Q1/ Q2/ Q3/ Q4/ Q1/ Q2/ Jan Feb Mar YTD FY14 FY14 FY14 FY14 FY58 FY15 Net Government Revenue (net of local authorities' allocation) 2,073.9 503.5 437.2 608.5 525.5 507.4 466.5 159.2 149.9 157.4 974.0 (%y-o-y) -4.1 -1.0 -6.9 -5.2 -3.0 0.8 6.7 2.0 0.6 19.2 3.5 Expenditure 2,460.0 831.1 553.0 514.7 561.2 844.1 617.6 215.7 150.4 251.4 1,461.7 (%y-o-y) 2.4 5.7 -5.6 6.8 2.2 1.6 11.7 1.2 -13.7 52.0 5.6 Budget Balance -390.0 -334.7 -115.9 105.5 -44.9 -347.1 -144.7 -57.5 -6.2 -81.0 -491.84.Exports in March and Q1 of 2015 continued to contract. The export values in March 2015 was amounted at 18.9 billion USD or contracted by -4.5 percent per year and this was the third consecutive month of contraction. The contraction was caused by the slowdown global economy including Thailand's major trade partners. Thus, there was a slowdown purchases orders in the world market. The export goods showing a contraction in March comprised of fuel, electronics goods, electrical appliances, which declined by -32.0, -3.3 and -1.2 percent per year, respectively. Meanwhile, the export markets showing a contraction in March comprised of China, Japan, Eurozone, and Hong Kong, which declined by -8.3, -8.4, -2.1 and -32.5 percent per year, respectively. The export markets showing an expansion were USA, Australia, and ASEAN-4, which increased by 5.6, 19.8 and 17.4 percent per year, respectively. The export goods showing an expansion were automobile, agro-industry, which expanded by 5.8 and 3.9 percent per year, respectively. In Q1/2015 the export values amounted at 53.4 billion USD or contracted by -4.7 percent per year. The export goods showing a contraction in Q1/2015 comprised of electrical appliances, agricultural products, and fuel and mineral, which decreased by -0.5, -14.1 and -29.6 percent per year, respectively. The export markets showing a contraction in Q1/2015 were China, Japan, and Eurozone, which declined by -14.4, -9.2 and -3.9 percent per year, respectively. Export goods showing an expansion in Q1/2015 were automobile and electronics goods, which increased by 4.7 and 2.2 percent per year, respectively. The Export markets showing an expansion in Q1/2015 were USA and ASEAN-4 (or CLMV) which increased by 5.6 and 0.6 percent per year, respectively. Meanwhile, the import values was amounted at 17.4 billion USD, or decreased by -5.9 percent per year. In Q1/2015 the import values was amounted at 51.9 billion USD, or decreased by -6.4 percent per year. As such, the larger export value compared to that of imports resulted in a trade surplus of 1.5 billion USD in March 2015.In addition, in Q1/2015 a trade balance showed a surplus of 1.4 billion USD.
Major Exports Market 2014 2014 2015 (Exports Share 2013>>>2014) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar YTD Total export values (%yoy) -0.4 -1.4 0.0 -1.8 1.6 -4.7 -3.5 -6.1 -4.4 -4.7 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -1.0 -0.8 -0.4 3.8 -6.2 -5.5 -2.1 -2.4 - 1.China (11.9%>>>11.0%) -7.9 -4.5 -4.2 -6.3 -15.3 -14.4 -19.7 -15.1 -8.3 -4.5 2.USA (10.0%>>>10.5%) 4.1 0.6 4.9 3.4 7.2 5.6 6.0 5.1 5.6 0.6 3.Japan (9.7%>>>9.6%) -1.9 0.7 -6.4 -1.0 -0.6 -9.2 -7.5 -11.7 -8.4 0.7 4.Eurozone (8.8%>>>9.2%) 4.7 4.8 10.9 2.0 1.7 -3.9 -5.0 -4.7 -2.1 4.8 5.Malaysia (5.7%>>>5.6%) -1.9 -0.1 -1.4 -5.0 -1.0 -14.6 -12.5 -19.3 -12.2 -0.1 6.Hong Kong (5.8%>>>5.5%) -4.4 -1.8 1.7 -13.5 -1.8 -11.5 8.3 -1.2 -32.5 -1.8 PS.ASEAN-9 (26.0%>>>26.1%) 0.2 -5.4 -0.1 1.1 5.2 -2.4 -0.7 -8.3 1.6 -5.4 PS.ASEAN-5 (17.6%>>>17.0%) -3.9 -11.0 -4.1 -4.2 4.3 -9.4 -4.8 -16.4 -7.1 -11.0 PS.ASEAN-4 (8.3%>>>9.1%) 9.0 7.0 8.8 13.6 6.8 10.6 6.8 7.0 17.4 7.05. Supply-side indicators showed that the tourism sector expanded highly expansion and this was the important supporting factor for the Thai economy expansion. The number of inbound tourists in March 2015 (preliminary) was recorded at 2.55 million persons, which expanded by 25.5 percent per year. Thus, in Q1/2015 the number of inbound tourists expanded by 23.5 percent per year or expanded by 4.3 percent (q-o-q SA). This expansion was driven by tourists from China and Malaysia, which expanded by 83.3 and 53.8 percent per year, respectively. In addition, for the first 18 days of April 2015 the number of inbound tourists was recorded at 1.43 million persons or expanded by 21.6 percent per year, which reflected the strong growth in tourism sector. Agricultural sector as reflected by Agricultural Production Index (API) in March 2015 contracted by -12.3 percent per year due to the decreasing production in paddy, rubber, oil palm, and corn for animal feed. Particularly, the paddy production contracted highly since the beginning of the year due to drought. In addition the water level in dam was low and had to stop the delivery of irrigation water for outof-season rice cultivation. However, the production in livestock and fishery continued to increase. As a result, in Q1/2015 the API contracted by -5.8 percent per year but expanded by 1.2 percent q-o-q SA. Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) for March and the 1st quarter of 2015 will be formally announced by the Ministry of Industry on 30 April 2015. Meanwhile, Thai Industries Sentiment Index (TISI) in March 2015 stood at 87.7 points decreasing from the previous month. This was the third consecutive month of declining and the lowest level in 5 months. This decline was due to the anxiety of slowdown foreign and domestic economies, the problem in competitiveness as a result of a lack in technology development, and the weak domestic purchases orders as a result of the decreasing purchasing power in agricultural sector.
Supply Side Indicators 2014 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar YTD Agricultural Production Index (%yoy) 0.6 1.1 6.5 2.7 -4.3 -5.8 0.3 -0.5 -12.3 -5.8 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 3.3 -6.7 0.3 -1.0 1.2 4.5 -2.1 -5.2 - Manufacturing Production -4.6 -7.0 -4.8 -3.9 -2.4 n.a. -0.8 3.6 n.a. 1.4 Index (%yoy) (Preliminary) %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -3.3 -2.5 -3.6 2.7 - -1.7 3.2 - - Number of Inbound Tourists -6.7 -9.0 -15.9 -10.1 6.7 23.5* 16.3 29.6* 25.5* 23.5 (%yoy) %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -10.3 -2.7 7.8 13.4 4.3 0.0 3.0 -2.5 4.2 *Preliminary 6. Internal stability remained desirable and external stability remained robust. Headline inflation in March 2015 decreased by -0.6 percent per year mainly due to the decrease in fuel prices including the declining prices in eggs, dairy products, and meat. Core inflation stood at 1.3 percent per year. Therefore, In Q1/2015 headline inflation and core inflation stood at -0.5 and 1.5 percent per year, respectively. Unemployment rate in March 2015 was 1.0 percent of total labor force, or equivalent to 378,000 unemployed persons. Consequently, unemployment rate in Q1/2015 was 0.9 of total labor force. Public debt GDP ratio at the end of February 2015 stood at 46.8 percent, still below theFiscal Sustainability Framework, which was targeted at 60.0 percent. Likewise, external economic stability remained robust and resilient to the risk from volatilities in the global economy , as indicated by the high-level of international reserves at the end of March 2015 at 156.3 billion USD, or approximately 2.9 times of short-term external debt. Macroeconomic Stability 2014 2014 2015 Indicators Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar YTD Internal Stability Headline Inflation (%yoy) 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 Core Inflation (%yoy) 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.5 Unemployment rate (% of total 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.9 labor force) Public debt (% of GDP) 45.8 46.5 47.1 47.2 46.3 46.8* 46.5 46.8 n.a. 46.8 External Stability Current Account Balance 14.2 5.5 -0.6 -0.5 9.8 6.0* 2.5 3.5 n.a. 6.0 (Billion USD) International Reserves 157.1 167.9 168.9 161.6 157.1 156.3 155.4 156.9 156.3 156.3 (Billion USD) Net Forward (Billion USD) 23.1 23.2 23.7 24.7 23.1 19.6 22.8 20.8 19.6 19.6 *As of February 2015 Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th