Attachment
"Economic indicators in April 2015 showed expanding signs from private consumptions as reflected by the real VAT collection. Meanwhile, private investment showed slowing signs and exports slightly contracted. The supply-side economy was supported by the expansion from tourism sector even though agricultural sector continued to contract. Thailand's internal and external economic stabilities remained robust."
1.Private consumption in April 2015 showed expanding signs. This was reflected by real VAT collection from domestic consumption base in April 2015, which continued to increase by 12.8 percent per year. Meanwhile, real VAT collection from imports continued to contract by -10.9 percent per year due to the decline in world crude oil prices. As a consequence, overall real VAT collection in April 2015 expanded by 2.5 percent per year. Motorcycle sales in April 2015 showed the first contraction after expanding for three months consecutively. The motorcycle sales contracted by -18.4 percent per year due to the contraction from Bangkok and other regions. Meanwhile, passenger car sales in April 2015 continued to contract by -24.7 percent per year.Consumer Confidence Index in overall economy in April 2015 was 66.0 points lowest in 10 months. This was due to the anxiety of adjusting down economic growth projection for 2015. Moreover, the purchasing power decreased due to the low level of agricultural prices, which caused people to spend carefully. In addition, the imports of consumer goods in April 2015 expanded by 1.0 percent per year.
Private Consumption 2014 2014 2015
Indicators
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr YTD
Real Value Added Tax Collection (%yoy) 0.4 -0.2 0.3 2.3 -0.9 1.0 -2.1 7.3 2.5 1.4
%qoq_SA /%mom_SA -0.7 -1.7 1.5 0.1 0.6 -2.8 6.0 -2.6 -
Imports of Consumer Goods (%yoy) 1.5 -3.8 0.4 0.2 8.1 10.0 32.5 5.2 1.0 8.3
%qoq_SA / %mom_SA -3.0 3.2 0.4 6.9 -0.5 13.6 -9.5 -0.5 -
Passenger Car Sales (%yoy) -41.4 -55.3 -37.7 -38.3 -27.9 -12.5 -12.5 -13.4 -24.7 -15.7
%qoq_SA / %mom_SA -23.5 0.0 -6.2 0.1 -6.4 -3.0 -3.6 -1.0 -
Motorcycle Sales (%yoy) -14.3 -20.8 -18.2 -8.1 -7.8 10.9 0.7 18.1 -18.4 4.1
%qoq_SA / %mom_SA -8.7 -1.7 6.2 -3.2 9.7 1.5 12.9 -31.4 -
Farmers' real incomes (calculated by FPO) -8.5 -3.0 -4.5 -7.7 -14.4 -11.4 -6.9 -17.8 -18.8 -13.0
Consumer Confidence Index 65.0 59.9 61.2 69.3 69.6 68.4 68.4 67.1 66.0 67.8
2. Private investment in April 2015 showed slowing signs. The investment in construction sector as reflected by cement sales in April 2015 decreased by -3.3 percent per year. The Construction Materials Price Index (CMI) in April 2015 contracted by -4.3 percent per year due to the declining prices in steel sector which was cause by the decrease in energy and input prices including the decreasing prices in world steel market. The real estate tax collection in April 2015 expanded by 9.4 percent per or expanded by 5.3 percent m-o-m SA. The investment in equipment and machinery sector as reflected by commercial car sales in April 2015 continued to contract by -27.3 percent per year. The imports of capital goods in April 2015 expanded by 5.5 percent per year or expanded by 10.6 m-o-m SA. However, after excluding special items like aircraft, ship, and train, the imports of capital goods contracted by -3.7 percent per year but expanded by 2.4 percent m-o-m SA.
Private Investment Indicators 2557 2557 2558
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr YTD
Construction sector
Real estate tax collection (%yoy) -2.2 -5.6 -5.9 -2.1 3.9 6.9 2.8 6.2 9.4 7.5
%qoq_SA / %mom_SA -8.1 -3.7 9.8 6.4 -4.9 -8.6 -0.3 5.3 -
Cement sales (%yoy) -3.2 -2.4 -3.0 -2.9 -4.8 -2.5 -2.4 0.6 -3.3 -2.7
%qoq_SA / %mom_SA -2.1 0.5 -2.1 -1.2 0.6 2.2 2.3 -2.1 -
Construction Materials Price Index (CMI) 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.2 -0.8 -3.7 -3.8 -4.5 -4.3 -3.9
Machinery sector
Commercial car sales (%yoy) -26.8 -36.6 -30.6 -20.4 -15.8 -9.6 -10.6 -27.3 -15.1 11.3
%qoq_SA / %mom_SA -13.8 -2.8 0.3 -0.9 -7.0 -1.2 -7.6 -10.9 -
Imports of capital goods (%yoy) -7.6 -14.1 -12.6 0.0 -2.9 0.9 5.9 -6.9 5.5 2.0
%qoq_SA / %mom_SA -5.1 0.6 6.7 -5.2 -0.2 1.1 -12.5 10.6 -
Imports of capital goods (exclude -4.8 -11.4 -4.4 -4.0 1.3 0.1 10.2 -4.2 -3.7 -0.9
aircraft, ship, and train) (%yoy)
%qoq_SA / %mom_SA -0.1 1.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.9 5.7 -8.8 2.4 -
3. Fiscal indicators in April 2015 reflected that fiscal policy played a role in supporting the Thai economy through a budget deficit. The budget balance in April 2015 showed a deficit of -45.0 billion baht. The budget disbursement in April 2015 was amounted at 191.5 billion baht or contracted by -2.2 percent per year. The budget disbursement of current fiscal year was disbursed at 178.9 billion baht or contracted by -0.5 percent per year. This amounts comprised of (1) current year expenditure of 156.1 billion baht, which contracted by -0.5 percent per year and (2) capital expenditure of 22.8 billion baht, which contracted by -0.5 percent per year. The net government revenue collection (net of local authorities' allocation) amounted at 168.0 billion baht or expanded by 23.2 percent per year. This comprised of (1) tax collection from consumption base (VAT) which increased by 1.3 percent per year due to an increase in VAT collection from domestic consumption, which increased by 11.4 percent per year. This was reflected that domestic consumption continued to grow well. However, real VAT collection on imports contracted by -12.0 percent per year reflected the slowing imports. (2) Tax collection from income base increased by 11.1 percent per year. Corporate income tax collection and personal income tax collection increased by 11.4 and 10.9 percent per year, respectively.
Fiscal Sector Indicators FY2014 FY2014 FY2015
(Billion Baht) Q1/ Q2/ Q3/ Q4/ Q1/ Q2/ Feb Mar Apr YTD
FY57 FY57 FY57 FY57 FY15 FY15
Net Government Revenue 2,074.7 503.5 437.2 608.5 525.5 507.4 468.0 149.6 157.7 168.0 1,143.4
(net of local authorities' allocation)
(%y-o-y) -4.0 -1.0 -6.9 -5.2 -3.0 0.8 7.0 0.4 19.5 23.2 6.2
Expenditure 2,460.0 831.1 553.0 514.7 561.2 844.1 617.6 150.4 251.4 191.5 1,653.2
(%y-o-y) 2.4 5.7 -5.6 6.8 2.2 1.6 11.7 -13.7 52.0 -2.2 4.6
Budget Balance -384.3 -334.7 -115.9 105.6 -39.4 -347.3 -140.9 7.6 -79.8 -45.0 -533.3
4.Exports in April 2015 showed a slight contraction. The export values in April 2015 was amounted at 16.9 billion USD or contracted by -1.7 percent per year but expanded by 2.8 m-o-m SA. The contraction was caused by the slowdown global economy including Thailand's major trade partners. Thus, there was a slowdown purchases orders in the world market. The export goods showing a contraction comprised of agro-industry which decreased by -0.3 percent per year due to the declining prices of agricultural products and electrical appliances which declined by -1.5 percent per year. The export goods showing an expansion comprised of electronics goods and vehicles which expanded by 7.0 and 7.3 percent per year, respectively. Meanwhile, the export markets showing a contraction in April comprised of Japan, Eurozone, ASEAN-9, and ASEAN-5, which declined by -3.0, -3.5, -6.1 and -11.6 percent per year, respectively. The export markets showing an expansion were USA, Australia, and Vietnam, which increased by 8.4, 26.7, and 12.8 percent per year, respectively. Meanwhile, the import values was amounted at 17.4 billion USD, or contracted by -6.8 percent per year. As such, the smaller export value compared to that of imports resulted in a trade balance to be deficit of 0.5 billion USD.
Major Exports Market 2014 2014 2015 (Exports Share 2013>>>2014) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr YTD Exports to the world (%yoy) -0.4 -1.4 0.0 -1.8 1.6 -4.7 -6.1 -4.4 -1.7 -4.0 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -1.0 -0.8 -0.4 3.8 -6.2 -2.1 -2.2 2.8 - 1.China (11.9%>>>11.0%) -7.9 -4.5 -4.2 -6.3 -15.3 -14.4 -15.1 -8.3 1.1 -11.0 2.U.S.A. (10.0%>>>10.5%) 4.1 0.6 4.9 3.4 7.2 5.6 5.1 5.6 8.4 6.3 3.Japan (9.7%>>>9.6%) -1.9 0.7 -6.4 -1.0 -0.6 -9.2 -11.7 -8.4 -3.0 -7.8 4.Eurozone (8.8%>>>9.2%) 4.7 4.8 10.9 2.0 1.7 -3.9 -4.7 -2.1 -3.5 -3.8 5.Malaysia (5.7%>>>5.6%) -1.9 -0.1 -1.4 -5.0 -1.0 -14.6 -19.3 -12.2 -24.6 -17.2 6.Hong Kong (5.8%>>>5.5%) -4.4 -1.8 1.7 -13.5 -1.8 -11.5 -1.2 -32.5 4.0 -8.4 PS.ASEAN-9 (26.0%>>>26.1%) 0.2 -5.4 -0.1 1.1 5.2 -2.4 -8.3 1.6 -6.1 -3.3 PS.ASEAN-5 (17.6%>>>17.0%) -3.9 -11.0 -4.1 -4.2 4.3 -9.4 -16.4 -7.1 -11.6 -10.0 PS.ASEAN-4 (8.3%>>>9.1%) 9.0 7.0 8.8 13.6 6.8 10.6 7.0 17.4 3.5 8.8
5. Supply-side indicators showed that the tourism sector expanded highly and this was the importantly supporting factor for the Thai economy expansion. The number of inbound tourists in April 2015 (preliminary) was recorded at 2.4 million persons, which expanded by 25.1 percent per year. This expansion was supported by the short-distance tourists from China and Malaysia. In addition, for the first 12 days of May 2015 the number of inbound tourists was recorded at 860,000 persons or expanded by 22.9 percent per year, which reflected the strong growth in tourism sector. Agricultural sector as reflected by Agricultural Production Index (API)in April 2015 continually contracted by -13.3 percent per year due to the decreasing in paddy, rubber, oil palm, and corn for animal feed. Particularly, the paddy production contracted highly since the beginning of the year due to drought. In addition the water level in dam was low and had to stop the delivery of irrigation water for out-of-season rice cultivation. However, the production in livestock and fishery continued to increase. Likewise, the agricultural prices in April 2015 showed the fifteenth consecutive month of contraction by decreasing -7.5 percent per year. This was due to the unrecovered prices of world rubber. In addition, the prices in livestock and fishery contracted by -9.4 and -24.6 percent per year, respectively and this was due to the products that were delivered to the markets increasingly and continually. Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) in April 2015 contracted by -5.3 percent per year due to the contraction in radio-and-television industry, hard disk drives, and furniture and jewelry. Likewise, Thai Industries Sentiment Index (TISI) in April 2015 stood at 86.2 points decreasing for 4 months consecutively and lowest in 7 months since October 2014. This decline was due to the anxiety of the Thai economy and drought, which affected the consumption and spending in agriculture. In addition, there were long holiday in April 2015 due to the Songkran festival and this decelerated the transportation and logistics.
Supply Side Indicators 2014 2014 2015
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr YTD
Agricultural Production Index (%yoy) 0.6 1.1 6.5 2.7 -4.3 -5.2 -0.5 -11.9 -13.3 -7.0
%qoq_SA / %mom_SA 3.3 -6.7 0.3 -1.0 1.2 -2.1 -5.2 -0.2 -
Manufacturing Production -4.6 -7.0 -4.8 -3.9 -2.3 -3.4 3.0 -1.7 -5.3 -1.1
Index (%yoy) (Preliminary)
%qoq_SA / %mom_SA -3.6 -1.9 -3.7 2.7 -1.2 2.3 -7.6 -1.1 -
Thai Industries Sentiment 87.4 85.8 85.8 88.2 90.0 89.2 90.0 87.7 86.2 88.5
Index (TISI)(percent)
Number of Inbound Tourists (%yoy) -6.7 -9.0 -15.9 -10.1 7.0 23.5 29.6 25.5 25.1* 23.9*
%qoq_SA / %mom_SA -10.3 -2.7 7.8 13.4 4.3 2.9 -2.2 1.9 -
*Preliminary
6. Internal stability remained desirable and external stability remained robust. Headline inflation in April 2015 continued to decrease by -1.0 percent per year mainly due to the decrease in fuel prices including the declining prices in eggs, dairy products, and meat. Core inflation stood at 1.0 percent per year. Unemployment rate in April 2015 was 0.9 percent of total labor force, or equivalent to 324,000 unemployed persons. Public debt GDP ratio at the end of March 2015 stood at 43.3 percent, still below the Fiscal Sustainability Framework, which was targeted at 60.0 percent. Likewise, external economic stability remained robust and resilient to the risk from volatilities in the global economy , as indicated by the high-level of international reserves at the end of April 2015 at 161.1 billion USD, or approximately 2.9 times of short-term external debt .
Macroeconomic Stability 2014 2014 2015
Indicators
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr YTD
Internal Stability
Headline Inflation (%yoy) 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -1.0 -0.7
Core Inflation (%yoy) 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.4
Unemployment rate 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9
(% of total labor force)
Public debt (% of GDP) 42.8 42.9 43.4 43.5 42.8 43.3 43.3 43.3 n.a. 43.3
External Stability
Current Account Balance 14.2 5.5 -0.6 -0.5 8.7 8.2 3.5 2.2 n.a. 8.2
(Billion USD)
International Reserves 157.1 167.5 168.2 161.6 157.1 156.3 156.9 156.3 161.1 161.1
(Billion USD)
Net Forward (Billion USD) 23.1 23.6 23.7 24.7 23.1 19.6 20.8 19.6 18.5 18.5
International reserves to short 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 - 2.9
term external debt (times)
Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th