Attachment
"The Thai economy in January 2017 was supported by tourism sector as reflected by the number of inbound foreign tourists which expanded by 6.5 percent per year, while exports continued to grow by 8.8 percent. Meanwhile, private expenditures showed improving signs from farmers' income which continued to expand by 16.8 percent corresponding with Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) which improved for 2 months consecutively partially due to government's economic stimulus measures. In addition, private investment showed improving signs from investment in equipment and machinery as commercial car sales turned to increase by 4.5 percent."
1. Private consumption showed improving signs as real VAT collection in January 2017 expanded by 2.3 percent per year and expanded by 0.2 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. In addition, new motorcycle registrations in January 2017 contracted by -6.2 percent per year but expanded by 0.2 percent per month after seasonal adjustment due to high base in previous year. Meanwhile, passenger car sales in January 2017 highly expanded by 23.5 percent per year and expanded by 11.2 percent per month after seasonal adjustment corresponding with real farmer's income in January which continued to expand by 16.8 percent per year. Meanwhile, Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in January 2017 stood at 63.1 points increasing from previous month due to a supportive factor such as economic stimulus measures of government which would positively affect overall economy.
Private Consumption 2015 2016 2016 2017 Indicators Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan YTD Real Value Added Tax Collection (%yoy) 1.3 1.4 0.3 3.8 1.3 0.2 -2.2 2.3 2.3 %qoq_SA /%mom_SA -0.8 2.9 -3.0 1.0 -1.9 0.2 Passenger Car Sales (%yoy) -19.1 -6.5 -26.6 4.9 10.6 -10.6 -15.4 23.5 23.5 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -18.7 20.4 -0.4 -8.7 2.2 11.2 Registration of new motorcycles (%yoy) -0.2 5.5 -3.3 7.9 14.1 4.6 0.1 -6.2 -6.2 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 4.7 -0.1 1.9 -1.9 -5.5 0.2 Farmers' real incomes (calculated by FPO) -9.0 0.2 -12.8 -1.5 7.7 6.6 12.3 16.8 16.8 Consumer Confidence Index 64.7 62.2 63.4 61.1 62.3 61.9 62.5 63.1 63.12. Private investment in January 2017 showed improving signs from investment in construction sector as domestic cement sales continued to increase by 2.0 percent per year and Construction Materials Price Index (CMI)recorded an increase of 2.4 percent per year as price index in steel and steel products increased by 17.6 percent per year. Meanwhile, real estate tax collection in January 2017 contracted by -6.0 percent per year due to high base from temporary reduction of real estate transfer and mortgage registration fees (effective from 29 October 2015 to 28 April 2016). Meanwhile, investment in equipment and machinery as reflected by commercial car sales in January 2017 turned to increase by 4.5 percent per year and expanded by 1.3 percent per month after seasonal adjustment due to an increase in 1-ton pickup truck sales which expanded by 5.6 percent per year.
Private Investment Indicators 2015 2016 2016 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan YTD Construction sector Real estate tax collection (%yoy) 8.7 -2.5 6.6 13.2 -5.7 -17.0 -27.6 -6.0 -6.0 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -10.8 2.0 -12.6 2.7 0.5 -9.1 Cement sales (%yoy) -0.4 -1.6 3.1 -1.6 -6.0 -2.3 0.3 2.0 2.0 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 1.4 -3.1 -4.9 4.5 4.0 -1.5 Construction Materials Price Index (CMI) -4.9 -2.7 -5.1 -2.2 -3.0 -0.4 0.9 2.4 2.4 Machinery and equipment sector Commercial car sales (%yoy) -2.6 -2.0 4.0 13.6 -3.4 -15.3 -13.9 4.5 4.5 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -8.5 2.4 -4.8 -5.8 8.4 1.33.External demand as shown by exports of goods continued to expand for 3 months consecutively as in January 2017 export values were amounted at 17.1 billion USD expanding by 8.8 percent per year. Meanwhile, import values in January 2017 showed a record of 16.3 billion USD expanding 5.2 percent per year. As such the greater export values compared to that of imports resulted in the continued trade surplus of 0.8 billion USD in January 2017.
4. Supply-side indicators in January 2017 were supported by foreign tourism sector which expanded well as the number of inbound foreign tourists in January 2017 was recorded at 3.2 million persons expanding by 6.5 percent per year and increasing by 11.4 percent per month after seasonal adjustment and this generated income to foreign tourism sector by 169 billion baht increasing by 10.3 percent per year partly due to low base in the previous year as Chinese New Year this year was celebrated in January 2017 while Chinese New Year last year was in February 2016. Considering by countries, tourists showing an expansion in January 2017 were from China, Russia, Hong Kong, India, and East Europe which expanded by 5.5, 27.4, 44.6, 17.5, and 23.8 respectively. Agricultural Production Index in January 2017 continued to expand by 3.4 percent per year and expanded by 0.5 percent per month after seasonal adjustment due to an increase in main crops which expanded by 3.8 percent per year from rubber, corn, and oil palm, while livestock and fishery expanded by 1.9 and 3.2 percent per year, respectively. Likewise, Agricultural Price Index expanded by 15.6 percent per year as prices in main crops such as rubber and oil palm, and prices in fishery expanded well. Meanwhile, Thai Industries Sentiment Index (TISI)slightly decreased to 87.2 points due to an anxiety in global economic volatility particularly from international trade policy of new U.S. president, exchange rate volatility, and an increasing trend in oil prices. In addition, entrepreneurs in southern part were anxious about the impact of flood.
Supply Side Indicators 2015 2016 2016 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan YTD Agricultural Production Index (%yoy) -4.0 -1.7 -7.5 -4.9 -2.0 4.1 4.9 3.4 3.4 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -4.0 -3.3 2.9 9.5 5.0 0.5 Thai Industries Sentiment Index (TISI)(level) 85.8 85.9 86.0 85.6 84.3 87.5 88.5 87.2 87.2 Number of Inbound foreign Tourists (%yoy) 20.6 8.9 15.5 8.2 12.8 -0.9 1.1 6.5 6.5 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 11.0 1.3 1.5 -12.9 9.4 11.45. Internal economic stabilities remained favourable and external economic stabilities remained robust. Headline inflation in January 2017 was 1.6 percent per year due to an adjustment of domestic retail prices in fuel caused by an increase in crude oil prices in world market in addition to prices in finished food and sea food which were increased. Core inflation in January 2017 was 0.7 percent per year. Meanwhile, unemployment rate in January 2017 was 1.2 percent of total labor force or 450,000 persons. Public debt to GDP at the end of December 2016 stood at 42.2 percent to GDP, lower than theFiscal Sustainability Framework of 60 percent to GDP. External stabilities werestable and reflected the resilient ability to risk from the volatilities in global economy as the international reserves at the end of January 2017 were high at 179.2 billion USD, or approximately 3.2 times of short-term external debt.
Macroeconomic Stability 2015 2016 2016 2017 Indicators Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan YTD Internal Stability Headline Inflation (%yoy) -0.9 0.2 -0.5 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.6 Core Inflation (%yoy) 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Unemployment rate (% of total labor force) 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.2 Public debt (% of GDP) 44.4 42.4 44.1 43.44 42.7 42.2 42.2 - - External Stability Current Account Balance (Billion USD) 32.1 46.4 17.9 8.4 10.4 9.8 3.7 - - International Reserves (Billion USD) 156.5 171.9 175.1 175.5 180.5 171.9 171.9 179.2 179.2 Net Forward (Billion USD) 11.7 25.8 13.9 15.7 20.2 25.8 25.8 23.6 23.6 International reserves to short term 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 - - external debt (times)Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th