Attachment
"The Thai economy in September 2017 showed improving signs from the previous month in both demand and supply sides as private investment expanded with accelerating pace and supply side expanded from agricultural products and the number of inbound foreign tourists. As a result, the widespread improvement supported the economic growth in the 3rd quarter of 2017, especially in export of goods and services. In addition, public expenditures expanded from the previous quarter and private expenditures expanded and supported the economy continually."
1. Economic indicators on private consumption expenditures expanded as shown by real VAT collection in September 2017 which expanded by 2.0 percent per year, and real VAT collection in the 3 rd quarter of 2017 which expanded by 5.9 percent per year or 2.1 percent per quarter after seasonal adjustment. Likewise, passenger car sales in September 2017 continued to expand by 14.9 percent per year, the ninth consecutive month of expansion or expanded by 5.3 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. Consequently, passenger car sales in the 3 rd quarter of 2017 expanded by 11.2 percent per year. Meanwhile, imports of consumers' goods in September 2017 continued to expand by 8.4 percent per year, highest in 3 months, and expanded by 5.3 percent per year in the 3 rd quarter of 2017 or 1.1 percent per quarter after seasonal adjustment. In addition, Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in September 2017 was at 62.5 points which was the second consecutive month of expansion as exports of goods and tourism sector expanded well. In addition, public investment the second half of the year supported the CCI in the 3 rd quarter of 2017 to grow at 62.4 points.
Private Consumption 2015 2016 2017 Indicators Q1 Q2 Q3 Jul Aug Sep YTD Real Value Added Tax Collection (%yoy) 1.3 1.4 3.4 1.1 5.9 0.9 14.7 2.0 3.4 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 2.4 0.9 2.1 -2.6 9.1 -5.6 Passenger Car Sales (%yoy) -19.1 -6.5 38.7 13.9 11.2 10.0 8.5 14.9 19.9 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 19.1 1.2 -0.6 -5.5 -2.4 5.3 - Registration of new motorcycles (%yoy) -0.2 5.5 3.2 8.3 8.1* 8.1 n.a. n.a. 6.1 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 2.9 5.3 - 3.1 n.a. n.a. Imports of consumption goods (%yoy) 2.2 2.2 0.3 3.2 5.3 1.6 6.0 8.4 2.9 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 4.5 1.3 1.1 -1.2 3.9 -3.1 Farmers' real incomes (calculated by FPO) -9.7 -0.5 14.8 16.6 -2.0 -2.1 -4.3 0.1 9.7 Consumer Confidence Index 64.7 62.2 64.2 64.4 62.4 62.2 62.4 62.5 63.62. Economic indicators on private investment recovered at accelerating pace as imports of capital goods in September 2017 continued to expand by 11.4 percent per year and increased by 8.2 percent per year or 9.4 percent per month after seasonal adjustment. Consequently, in the 3 rd quarter of 2017, imports of capital goods expanded by 8.2 percent per year or 3.0 percent per quarter after seasonal adjustment. Likewise, commercial car sales in September 2017 highly expanded by 26.6 percent per year or 13.2 percent per month after seasonal adjustment due to 1-ton pickup truck sales which expanded by 23.8 percent per year, and as a result, the commercial car sales in the 3 rd quarter of 2017 expanded by 12.8 percent per year or 4.6 percent per quarter after seasonal adjustment. Meanwhile, private investment in construction sector reflected by real estate tax collection in September 2017 which expanded by 13.3 percent per year and expanded by 12.3 percent per year in the 3 rd quarter of 2017 or 8.5 percent per quarter after seasonal adjustment. Meanwhile, domestic cement sales in September 2017 expanded by 4.9 percent per year, and in the 3 rd quarter of 2017 expanded by 3.5 percent per year or 0.5 percent per quarter after seasonal adjustment. In addition, Construction Materials Price Index (CMI) in September 2017 continued to expand by 4.2 percent per year due to prices in steel and steel products which increased by 19.2 percent per year and the CMI increased by 3.0 percent per year in the 3 rd quarter of 2017.
Private Investment Indicators 2015 2016 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jul Aug Sep YTD Machinery and equipment sector Commercial car sales (%yoy) -1.0 -2.0 5.3 2.2 12.8 5.8 5.8 26.6 6.7 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 10.4 0.7 4.6 0.2 3.8 13.2 Import volumes of capital goods (%yoy) -2.2 -4.0 1.2 9.9 8.2 8.2 5.5 11.4 6.3 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 2.2 1.1 3.0 2.5 -2.3 9.4 Construction sector Cement sales (%yoy) -0.4 -1.6 0.5 -1.6 3.5 -0.5 6.1 4.9 0.7 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 3.4 -4.3 0.5 -2.3 4.2 -2.7 - Construction Materials Price Index(CMI) -5.1 -2.7 2.0 -1.0 3.0 1.7 3.2 4.2 1.3 Real estate tax collection (%yoy) 8.7 -2.5 -9.7 -8.4 12.3 24.1 2.3 13.3 -2.5 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -2.3 3.6 8.5 -11.1 7.7 2.23. For the fiscal sector, total government expenditure in September 2017 was amounted at 211.2 billion baht and annual budgetary expenditure was disbursed at 199.2 billion baht as a result of current expenditure which was disbursed at 149.2 billion baht, capital expenditure which was disbursed at 12.0 billion baht. In the 3 rd quarter of 2017 (or the 4 th quarter of Fiscal Year 2017), the total government expenditure was amounted at 633.1 billion baht and was and annual budgetary expenditure was disbursed at 609.1 billion baht composed of current expenditure which was disbursed at 502.8 billion baht, capital expenditure which was disbursed at 24.0 billion baht
Fiscal Sector FY 2016 FY2517 Indicators Q1/FY17 Q2/FY17 Q3/FY17 Q4/FY17 Aug Sep FYTD (Billion Baht) Total government expenditure 2,807.4 969.1 636.6 651.8 633.1 165.1 211.2 2,890.5 (%y-o-y) 7.9 8.8 -6.4 -3.8 13.3 4.0 -2.1 3.0 Annual budgetary expenditure 2,578.9 876.1 576.7 624.8 609.1 158.1 199.2 2,686.6 (%y-o-y) 8.4 8.5 -4.6 -2.2 15.3 5.9 -1.8 4.2 Current expenditure 2,214.1 783.9 477.8 541.2 502.8 126.5 149.2 2,305.8 (%y-o-y) 5.1 6.0 -6.1 0.7 17.4 6.5 -4.0 4.1 Capital expenditure 364.9 92.2 98.8 83.5 106.2 31.5 50.0 380.8 (%y-o-y) 34.4 35.4 3.9 -17.7 6.1 3.5 5.4 4.4 Carry-over budget (previous years) 228.5 93.0 59.9 27.0 24.0 7.0 12.0 204.04.External demand continued to expand highly for 7 months consecutively. Export values in September 2017 were amounted to 21.8 billion USD continually expanding by 12.2 percent per year. Export commodities showing expansion composed of jewelry and gems, gold, electronics, rubber products, fuel, agricultural products, chemicals, and vehicles and parts. Trading partners showing expansion composed of ASEAN-9, China, CLMV, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, and U.S.A. Meanwhile, import values in September 2017 were amounted at 18.5 billion USD expanding by 9.7 percent per year from raw materials and semi-finished materials, capital goods, gold, and consumers' goods. As such export values were greater than import values, trade balance showed a surplus of 3.4 billion USD in September 2017. In the 3 rd quarter of 2017, export values were totaled at 61.9 billion USD expanding by 12.0 percent per year or 3.9 percent per quarter after seasonal adjustment. Import values in the 3 rd quarter of 2017 was totaled at 56.6 billion USD expanding 14.3 percent per year or 2.3 percent per quarter after seasonal adjustment. Accordingly, trade balance in the 3 rd quarter of 2017 showed a surplus of 5.3 billion USD.
Main trading partners 2015 2016 2017 (16 countries) Q1 Q2 Q3 Jul Aug Sep YTD (Export shares 2015 >> 2016 ) Exports to the world (%yoy) -5.8 0.5 4.9 10.9 12.0 10.5 13.2 12.2 9.3 1. USA (11.2% >> 11.4%) 0.7 1.8 7.4 7.0 8.1 11.6 7.4 5.7 7.5 2. China (11.1% >> 11.1%) -5.4 0.3 36.5 26.0 21.7 29.2 25.5 12.1 27.7 3. Japan (9.4% >> 9.5%) -7.6 2.1 -2.5 20.1 10.4 9.1 11.7 10.3 8.8 4. EU (9.3% >> 9.3%) -5.7 1.0 9.2 5.5 4.5 8.3 3.7 2.1 6.4 5. Australia (5.3% >> 5.6%) 5.2 5.6 -0.4 -2.0 0.3 -11.3 -2.9 15.3 -0.7 6. Hong Kong (5.5% >> 5.3%) -6.2 -3.0 6.3 13.0 7.7 -4.1 9.2 13.9 8.8 7. Malaysia (4.8% >> 4.5%) -20.2 -5.5 -3.6 7.5 10.4 4.2 19.4 7.8 4.6 8. Vietnam (4.2% >> 4.4%) 13.0 5.8 23.4 26.0 25.9 31.3 28.5 19.2 25.1 9. Middle East (4.8% >> 4.2%) -10.1 -12.2 -19.7 4.6 5.1 17.8 -6.8 6.4 -4.3 10. Singapore (4.1% >> 3.8%) -16.2 -6.0 -20.2 34.0 -0.1 13.6 1.5 -12.9 1.5 11. Indonesia (3.7% >> 3.8%) -17.7 4.5 -9.3 22.1 2.4 3.1 -2.4 7.1 4.3 12. Philippines (2.8% >> 3.0%) 2.2 6.8 0.6 6.2 8.6 17.8 6.8 3.2 5.1 13. Africa (3.2% >> 2.9%) -20.3 -8.5 -0.4 2.9 19.4 36.0 24.8 2.1 7.3 14. India (2.5% >> 2.4%) -5.6 -2.6 18.3 13.3 27.3 18.0 34.2 29.4 19.5 15. South Korea (1.9% >> 1.9%) -9.2 -0.7 24.2 24.2 11.3 16.7 16.4 1.9 19.6 16. Taiwan (1.6% >> 1.6%) -12.0 -4.5 15.9 22.1 23.3 19.6 26.4 23.8 20.6 PS. ASEAN-9 (25.7% >> 25.4%) -7.2 -0.7 0.0 15.0 9.6 12.3 10.7 6.1 8.0 PS. ASEAN-5 (15.3% >> 15.0%) -15.1 -1.1 -8.9 17.2 5.3 8.8 6.5 1.0 3.8 PS. Indochina-4 (10.4% >> 10.3%) 7.7 0.0 15.3 11.8 16.2 17.6 17.2 13.9 14.45. Supply-side indicators were supported by Agricultural Product Index and the number of inbound foreign tourists which expanded well. In September 2017, Agricultural Product Index (API) expanded for 8 months consecutively by 7.0 percent per year or 3.2 percent per month after seasonal adjustment due to the expansion in 3 main sectors which are main crop sector (7.5 percent), livestock (5.2 percent), and fishery (9.4 percent). The main crops showing an expansion composed of paddy, rubber, and cassava. As a consequence, API in the 3 rd quarter of 2017 expanded by 11.9 percent per year or 1.0 percent per quarter after seasonal adjustment. Meanwhile, Agricultural Price Index contracted with slower pace at -6.1 percent per year but expanded by 5.3 percent per month after seasonal adjustment due to corn prices which decreased from the substitution of wheat for corn in animal-feed industry. Also, oil palm prices were decreasing due to over stock of oil palm importers. Accordingly, in the 3 rd quarter of 2017 Agricultural Price Index contracted by -16.1 percent per year. The number of inbound foreign tourists in September 2017 was recorded at 2.56 million persons expanding by 5.7 percent per year mainly due to the expansion of tourists from China, Korea, Cambodia, and India and in the 3 rd quarter of 2017 the number of inbound foreign tourists was recorded at 8.78 million persons increasing by 6.4 percent per year or 2.9 percent per quarter after seasonal adjustment. In addition, Thai Industries Sentiment Index (TISI) in September 2017 stood at 86.7 points increasing from 85.0 points in the previous month and this was the second consecutive month of expansion. The improvement was due to positive factors of the confidence in SMEs which increased first time in 6 months and was supported by sale promotion to stimulate domestic spending. Consequently, in the 3 rd quarter of 2017 the TISI was at 85.2 points.
Supply Side Indicators 2015 2016 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jul Aug Sep YTD Agricultural Production Index (%yoy) -4.8 -2.3 3.8 18.2 11.9 15.4 14.3 7.0 10.5 %qoq_SA / %mom_SA -0.9 5.9 1.0 0.9 -4.0 3.2 Thai Industries Sentiment Index 85.8 85.9 87.0 85.5 85.2 83.9 85.0 86.7 85.9 (TISI)(level) Number of Inbound Foreign 20.7 8.9 1.7 7.6 6.4 4.8 8.7 5.7 5.4 Tourists (%yoy) %qoq_SA / %mom_SA 13.6 5.6 2.9 -1.7 1.6 -0.96. Internal economic stabilities remained favourable and external economic stability remained stable.Headline inflation in September 2017 increased to 0.9 percent due to an increase of energy prices which were adjusted to follow world prices and excise tax restructuring which affected alcohol beverage and cigarettes prices. In addition, the fuel adjustment charge (ft) increased due to increasing cost in gas and fuel. Core inflation in September 2017 was at 0.5 percent per year. As a result, Headline inflation and core inflation in the 3 rd quarter of 2017 was 0.4 and 0.5 percent, respectively. Unemployment rate in September 2017 was at 1.2 percent of total labour force. Meanwhile, public debt to GDP at the end of August 2017 stood at 41.9 percent to GDP, lower than the Fiscal Sustainability Framework of 60 percent to GDP. External economic stability remained stable reflecting the resilient ability to risk from the volatilities in global economy as the international reserves at the end of September 2017 were high at 199.3 billion USD, approximately 3.4 times of short-term external debt.
Macroeconomic Stability 2015 2016 2017 Indicators Q1 Q2 Q3 Jul Aug Sep YTD Internal Stability Headline Inflation (%yoy) -0.9 0.2 1.3 0.1 0.4 0.17 0.32 0.86 0.60 Core Inflation (%yoy) 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.46 0.53 0.53 Unemployment rate (% of total 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 labor force) Public debt (% of GDP) 43.9 41.2 42.2 41.8 41.9* 41.8 41.9 - 41.9 External Stability Current Account Balance (Billion 32.1 46.4 15.2 8.3 7.4* 2.8 4.7 - 29.9 USD) International Reserves Position 156.5 171.9 180.9 185.6 199.3 190.4 196.9 199.3 199.3 (Billion USD) Net Forward (Billion USD) 11.7 25.8 26.6 30.8 31.2 30.8 30.9 31.2 31.2 International reserves to short 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4* 3.4 3.4 - 3.4 term external debt (times)Source: Fiscal Policy Office / www.fpo.go.th