Bangkok--10 Aug--Standard & Poor's
Although U.S. economic activity has recently shown signs of cooling, the speculative-grade default rate continued to decline through the first half of 2011, said an article published today by Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income Research, titled "U.S. Credit Metrics Monthly: Default Rate Declines To An Estimated 2.17% In July 2011."
"The default rate fell to an estimated 2.17% at the end of July 2011, a level not seen since June 2008," said Diane Vazza, head of Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income Research. "This is a modest decline from 2.25% at the end of June 2011. The rate is less than half of the 5.55% during the same period in 2010."
In the U.S., three companies defaulted in July. One of the three defaults was from the consumer/services sector, one from transportation, and one from financial institutions.
We expect the speculative-grade default rate to decline to a baseline forecast of 1.6% by June 2012. Alternately, the default rate could climb to 4%, according to our pessimistic scenario, or fall to 1.2%, per our optimistic scenario.
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Media Contact:
Mimi Barker, New York (1) 212-438-5054,
[email protected]
Analyst Contacts:
Diane Vazza, New York (1) 212-438-276