Bangkok--28 Nov--Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation
Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation notes Airbus has cut its 20-year large aircraft sales target to Chinese airlines from approximately 200 to 113, under its latest Global Market Forecast (covering the period 2006-2025), with just 35 sales expected between now and 2015. The 400+ seat category has shrunk from over 11% of the total projected China order book to just 4.3%.
In Mar-05, Airbus VP for Market Forecasts and Research, Laurent Rouaud, stated China could need some 200 very large aircraft by year 2023, while CEO of Airbus China, Laurence Barron, stated China would need "at least" 200 aircraft in this category.
Airbus has meanwhile increased its 20-year forecast for sales in the single-aisle segment in China by a massive 66%. The manufacturer now sees over 1,900 aircraft sales in this segment, including 1,161 in the next ten years alone (which is equivalent to its entire previous 20-year sales forecast for this segment), according to the Centre's research.
"The new forecast reflects the manufacturer’s prediction of increasing point-to-point operations in the country — and Airbus is putting its money where its mouth is, recently committing to establish an A320 production line in China," stated the Centre's Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison.
According to Mr Harbison, "the increasing numbers of new entrant private airlines points to a future of intense price competition on short haul routes in China".
"In the short term, pricing will come under pressure on the Beijing-Shanghai-Guangzhou triangle, as the CAAC has opened these important sectors to the new players," continued Mr Harbison.
The adjustments also bring Airbus closer to Boeing’s long-term forecast for China. Boeing sees 90 sales in the 400+ seat category and 1,840 single-aisle aircraft sales.