Bangkok--11 Dec--Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation After last week’s downbeat report from IATA on global freight growth, the role of that sector as a trend-indicator will closely watched in coming weeks. Additionally, in this region, air freight is a key part of many carriers’ strategy, so a downturn translates immediately to the bottom line for them. But the trend-forecasting role of air freight has become less immediate and obvious, so bad news in that sector can no longer promise a wider economic slowdown six months later. And, in the past, any talk of a US recession would in any event have been enough to ensure a global deceleration. But today there is widespread belief that economic growth can be sustained, even if the US economy heads into stormy weather. `This would result, so the argument goes, from a “decoupling” effect that China’s expansion can cause — so that China’s high growth can continue to support trade momentum, even with a lagging US. That theory is about to be tested. Much of China’s air freight still passes through Hong Kong, thanks to the efficiency of that hub and to the range of services that radiate from there. So what happens there is particularly significant. In recent days, some useful statistics have been issued. They do not point conclusively in any one direction, but they do raise questions — whose answers should become apparent in the next few weeks. HACTL today reported its November figures, which are as always, in advance of most airlines’ reporting. Although the report highlights a “record” level of throughput by Hong Kong’s largest air cargo terminal operator, the detail is less bullish. It would in fact be cause for real concern if November’s figures were not records, as this is the peak month and anything other than a new high would mean a fall from last year. Total year-on-year growth is relatively modest, at 2.4%. But a feature which had contributed to expansion earlier in 2007 — trans-shipments growth — has dropped steeply in the last quarter, by contrast with (or perhaps because of) 2006’s healthy expansion. And, necessarily, much of that trans-shipment is to and from the Mainland. A significant part of that reduced rate will be due to the US conditions, but Hong Kong is a global port and one interpretation is that the decoupling effect being talked about is actually not as substantial as argued. China’s exports and imports appear to be slowing. That is not by any means conclusive about the continuing role of China in world markets — its domestic economy is so powerful now — but it could be another brick in the wall of evidence of a turning economy.