Bangkok--17 Oct--Standard & Poor's
Globally, the number of issuers poised to migrate up the credit spectrum (potential rising stars) stands at 15, three issuers more than the 47-month low of 12 issuers in July, said a report published today by Standard & Poor's. Meanwhile, the count of entities about to cross over in the opposite direction (potential fallen angels) is elevated at 46, unsurprising given crossover credits' generally corroborative relationship with the broader economy.
Global potential rising stars are defined as entities that are rated 'BB+' with either a positive outlook or with ratings on CreditWatch with positive implications.
With no rising stars materialized since this past month's report, the year-to-date total count of rising stars stays at 36, affecting debt worth US$167.22 billion (?123.34 billion), according to the report, titled "Global Potential Rising Stars (Premium)." This compares with a tally of 36 issuers in 2007, with total rated debt worth US$71.81 billion (?52.97 billion). Current potential rising stars constitute US$12.00 billion (?8.85 billion) in rated debt.
"Although rising stars currently outnumber fallen angels by a margin of three, the volatility in the credit markets coupled with overall downward pressure, especially noted by the sharp decline in potential rising stars, leads us to continue to expect that the pattern will reverse in the upcoming months," said Diane Vazza, head of Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income Research Group.
Geographically, 23 of the 36 global rising stars recorded in 2008 are from the U.S., five are from Brazil, and two from Russia. In addition, Belgium, Bulgaria, France, Japan, Peru, and Italy have one each. Sectoral concentration is only in utilities, with one-quarter of the rising stars in this group. The remaining rising stars are found in banks and insurance, with three each, while health care; metals, mining, and steel; chemicals, packaging, and environmental services; retail and restaurants; telecommunications; and sovereigns have two each.
RatingsDirect is the real-time Web-based source for Standard & Poor's credit ratings, research, and risk analysis, at www.ratingsdirect.com. The standard version of this article is part of our standard Global Fixed Income Research content. The premium version contains expanded analysis of the article's most significant points, typically broken out by sector and region. Also in the premium version are in-depth charts and tables, the underlying data of which are available for download. Ratings information can also be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com; under Credit Ratings in the left navigation bar, select Find a Rating, then Credit Ratings Search. Members of the media may request a copy of this report by contacting the media representative provided.
Media Contact:
Mimi Barker, New York (1) 212-438-5054, [email protected]
Analyst Contacts:
Diane Vazza, New York (1) 212-438-2760