Bangkok--6 Oct--Standard & Poor's
As more positive economic news emerges, the speculative-grade default rate in the U.S. has fallen for the first time this year, coming in at an estimated 9.36% in September, said an article published Friday, October 2 by Standard & Poor's, titled "U.S. Credit Metrics Monthly: Default Rate Recedes In September (Premium)."
However, credit metrics in the U.S. show continued deterioration of credit quality and restricted lending conditions, contrasted with signs of life among new issuance.
The number of corporate defaults in 2009 slowed markedly in the U.S. in September, totaling eight during the month. This brings the year-to-date total to 155. The defaults in September are attributable to five nonfinancial sectors.
"The preliminary estimate for the U.S. 12-month-trailing speculative-grade default rate in September is 9.36%, which is subject to revision," said Diane Vazza, head of Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income Research Group. "This is down from 10.4% in August and the first decline in the default rate this year."
We expect the speculative-grade default rate to escalate to a mean forecast of 13.9% by August 2010, but it could reach as high as 18% if economic conditions are worse than expected.
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