Bangkok--20 Jan--IDC
IDC Predicts Acceleration In Emerging Technology Adoption Will Drive The Thailand ICT Industry Despite Slowdown In Spending for 2009
The global financial meltdown and the turbulent political condition in Thailand will lead to a slowdown in the growth of information and communications technology (ICT) in 2009. Nonetheless, IDC predicts there will be technology areas within the Thailand market that will present opportunities in 2009.
“Even while the Thailand economy is reflecting a bleak outlook, there are several pockets within the ICT market that warrant optimism. With the support of the Thai government, significant developments in areas such as 3G and WiMax, as well as Web 2.0 and managed security services, are expected to materialize in 2009. Concurrently, Thailand’s IT businesses looking for growth in this economic environment will have to consider cutting costs, improving business models, and reaching their customers more effectively," said Attaphon Satidkanitkul, Senior Analyst for IT Services Research at IDC ASEAN.
IDC’s Top 10 Predictions that will shape the Thailand ICT market in 2009 are as follows:
1. Thailand IT Spending Growth To Slow Down
IDC predicts that Thailand’s IT spending growth will slowdown to 6.7% in 2009, compared to the 12.9% year-on-year growth in 2008. The global economic downturn and the political situation in the country will undermine overall business and consumer confidence. Vertical industries such as financial services and manufacturing, where drastic cuts in budgets and delays in IT investment are expected, will decelerate on their IT spending. A slowdown is also projected in spending on some IT products such as PC and peripherals by consumers as they try to stretch product lifecycles and delay device upgrades and replacements.
2. The Light From The Government Sector
To combat the slowdown in spending during a time of economic uncertainties, the government has set in place several measures to fuel spending within the Thai economy. Investing in IT under the “ICT Master Plan II” and the new government center is a significant part of the government’s 2009 budget. This allocation from the government will be the key investment driving IT optimization and infrastructure development in Thailand during the year.
3. Web 2.0 For Customer Care And Marketing
2008 saw great traction in Web 2.0 technology and this is expected to continue into 2009. Businesses are expected to adopt the technology as a new media tool to support business activities. In Thailand, the use of Web 2.0 is already being seen in marketing and customer care efforts by various businesses and on e-commerce websites. IDC predicts a further acceleration in the use of Web 2.0 technologies by the enterprise segment in 2009 as businesses look for not just more, but also efficient, ways to connect with their customers.
4. 3G Is Coming
The long-awaited 3G commercial licenses are expected to be awarded in the first half of 2009. Although commercial availability of the service may only come in the second half of 2009, IDC believes that granting 3G licenses will help jumpstart investment activities in Thailand, especially in the area of 3G infrastructure and content. Moving from being purely voice centric to a preference for converged capabilities in devices, 3G services availability in the future will change consumer behavior and demand, and transform the competitive landscape of the mobile devices market in Thailand.
5. IP Surveillance By Government
The Thailand government has taken greater steps to enhance public security and is expected to launch IP surveillance systems in 2009. Combining IP technology and security systems, the government project will install CCTV in key spots across the nation's capital and targeted areas in the south of Thailand. The setup of CCTV on roads to monitor the traffic is also included in this project. As a result, internet bandwidth consumption is expected to increase, which will push Internet Service Providers (ISPs) to upgrade and enhance their infrastructure.
6. WiMax — The Reality Show
After lengthy disputes over the suitability of spectrum and market model between the government and service providers, worldwide interoperability for microwave access (WiMAX) licenses will finally be up for auction in the first half of 2009. IDC anticipates this move to be a starting point for infrastructure roll-out of WiMAX technology, which is seen as the key tool for increasing broadband penetration and providing connectivity to a wider number of people in Thailand.
7. Mobile Number Portability (MNP)
MNP is viewed as a positive reform effort by the Thailand National Telecommunications Commission (NTC) and is set to be implemented in 2009. IDC expects competition over customer loyalty to intensify, leading to new business models and forcing mobile operators to offer their customers better incentives and stronger value propositions to stay ahead of competition.
8. Mini-Notebooks: A Dream Comes True
IDC forecasts mini-notebook unit shipment in Thailand will grow by 126% in 2009. This is driven mainly by high-profile projects such as the Green WiFi project in Bangkok and the roll-out of more hotspot areas by service providers. A growing number of people are connecting to the Internet at public hotspots in Thailand and mini-notebooks will become popular because they are lightweight, easy to carry around, and inexpensive. IDC believes that many major PC vendors will enter into this market, hence intensifying competition which will result in price wars and product differentiation on designs and functions.
9. The Birth of Green IT
IDC predicts that Green IT will manifest in Thailand in 2009 not only for its environmental cause, but also for being able to help businesses reduce cost. IDC expects environmental sustainability in Asia/Pacific to shift from mature economies to developing nations and along with this, future IT product shipments in the region will require certification on its environmental footprint. Thailand being a large exporter of computer parts will have to adopt measures to meet the green demands of their multi-national business clients. The slowdown in IT spending will also make businesses focus on products that are low on energy consumption in order to reduce cost.
10. Opportunities in Managed Security
In 2009, IDC sees managed security services as an area of significant opportunity for IT service providers with comprehensive expertise in both IT security and networking. Requirements on enterprises to comply with standards set by the Information Systems Audit and Control Association (ISACA) and the IT Governance Institute (ITGI), will drive adoption of managed security in Thailand. Service providers who are best prepared with solutions to deploy these standard of best practices will benefit greatly.
IDC’s annual Predictions for the ICT market in Thailand draws upon latest IDC research and a worldwide brainstorming exercise among IDC’s 900+ analysts. This was followed by an extensive regional review to weigh in on key industry events, user trends, vendor strategies and economic measures, that promises to uniquely define the technology trends which would impact and drive the ICT market in Thailand for 2009. Across the globe, following the release of IDC’s global top ten and IDC’s APEJ top ten, geographic and technology teams will be releasing their own specific predictions in the up coming months. Visit http://www.idc.com.sg/Predictions09/ often for updates.
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Notes to Editor
To find out more about IDC's Thailand Information and Communications Technology (ICT) 2009 Top 10 Predictions, please register at IDC’s Webcast Portal to listen to the Webcast presented by Attaphon Satidkanitkul, Senior Market Analyst for IT Services Research for IDC ASEAN. The webcast will be available from January 15, 2009 through March 31, 2009.
About IDC
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